The model's read on Las Vegas Aces at Phoenix Mercury
The numbers above are the market's. Premium adds the model's call on this game.
- ✓Who the model picks, and how sure it is
- ✓Spread and total leans against the market
- ✓The matchups behind the call, in plain English
Player props
No lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Averages over the games shown; the small number is the difference from the season average.
Closing lines fill in game by game from our first props pull (Sep 23, 2026); none of these games has one yet.
Shot types vs PHX
2026, 41 games
| Type | Points | FGA | FG% | PHX allows |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free throws | 6.8 (26%) | — | — | 14.9 #12 |
| Spot-up jumpers | 5.0 (19%) | 4.6 | 45% | 21.0 #1 |
| Transition | 3.0 (12%) | 2.2 | 67% | 10.5 #11 |
| Post-ups & turnarounds | 3.0 (11%) | 2.8 | 53% | 3.7 #5 |
| Pull-ups & step-backs | 2.6 (10%) | 3.0 | 44% | 10.7 #5 |
| Drives & floaters | 2.6 (10%) | 2.4 | 53% | 12.4 #13 |
| Putbacks | 1.7 (6%) | 1.2 | 65% | 5.3 #10 |
| Other at the rim | 0.8 (3%) | 0.6 | 62% | 2.7 #9 |
| Cuts & lobs | 0.7 (3%) | 0.5 | 68% | 5.7 #7 |
PHX allows = points a game its opponents score that way; rank 1 = allows the most. Transition = first shot within 7s of a stop or score; putback = within 3s of an own offensive rebound; the rest by the shot label.
Shooting zones
A'ja Wilson · 1621 attempts, last two seasons
Where they shoot from and how often it goes in, by zone. From charted shot locations. Descriptive history, not a forecast.
Similar players vs PHX
Similarity from 2026 box scores
| Date | Player | Vs | Result | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29 | Isabelle Harrison TOR | 12.3 avg | 16 | +31% |
| Aug 27 | Shakira Austin WSH | 16.9 avg | 11 | -35% |
| Aug 25 | Shakira Austin WSH | 17.0 avg | 16 | -6% |
| Aug 22 | Angel Reese ATL | 15.9 avg | 31 | +95% |
| Aug 11 | Dearica Hamby LA | 15.1 avg | 19 | +26% |
| Aug 9 | Shakira Austin WSH | 16.1 avg | 19 | +18% |
| Aug 7 | Brittney Griner CON | 14.1 avg | 5 | -65% |
| Aug 5 | Angel Reese ATL | 16.1 avg | 14 | -13% |
| Aug 3 | Kamilla Cardoso CHI | 14.3 avg | 16 | +12% |
| Aug 1 | Breanna Stewart NY | 21.7 avg | 14 | -35% |
Compared with: Breanna Stewart, Shakira Austin, Dominique Malonga, Aliyah Boston, Angel Reese, Kamilla Cardoso, Natasha Howard, Brittney Griner, Isabelle Harrison, Dearica Hamby, Brittney Sykes, Nyara Sabally.
Players whose minutes and per-36 scoring, rebounding, playmaking, three-point and free-throw volume, steals, blocks and turnovers are closest to this player's. Each game is measured against its closing line (CLOSE) where we have one, otherwise against that player's own average in the same season before that game (AVG). Other players' history, not a projection for this one.
At a glance
| LV | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 31-14 | Record | 16-28 |
| 8-2 | Last 10 | 4-6 |
| +6.5#4 | Net rating | -3.9#9 |
| 110.5#2 | Offense | 102.5#11 |
| 104.0#6 | Defense | 106.5#12 |
| 82.7#10 | Pace | 82.3#13 |
| 54.8#2 | eFG% | 50.5#9 |
| 50.7#6 | Opp eFG% | 53.5#13 |
| 13.6#3 | Turnover % | 15.3#8 |
| 23.3#12 | Off. rebound % | 21.0#15 |
Per 100 possessions; rank 1 = best (for Defense and Opp eFG%, the lowest).
The shape of the matchup
Each axis is a percentile among 15 teams on that measure (1 = best), offense on the left half of the wheel, defense on the right. Bigger is better.
Ratings · 2026
The four factors
League rank among 15 teams (1 = best; a defense ranks well for allowing less shooting, more turnovers forced, fewer offensive rebounds and fewer free throws).
Shot types
2026 · points a game by shot type · rank 1 = the most in the league
LV offense vs PHX defense
| Type | LV scores | PHX allows |
|---|---|---|
| Spot-up jumpers | 17.2 #9 | 21.0 #1 |
| Free throws | 16.2 #8 | 14.9 #12 |
| Drives & floaters | 10.7 #15 | 12.4 #13 |
| Transition | 12.9 #4 | 10.5 #11 |
| Pull-ups & step-backsmatch | 13.2 #2 | 10.7 #5 |
| Cuts & lobs | 5.5 #8 | 5.7 #7 |
| Putbacks | 5.2 #9 | 5.3 #10 |
| Post-ups & turnaroundsmatch | 5.9 #1 | 3.7 #5 |
| Other at the rim | 3.3 #3 | 2.7 #9 |
PHX offense vs LV defense
| Type | PHX scores | LV allows |
|---|---|---|
| Spot-up jumpers | 17.2 #11 | 16.2 #13 |
| Free throws | 18.2 #4 | 15.3 #10 |
| Drives & floaters | 13.7 #11 | 14.2 #8 |
| Transition | 11.2 #8 | 11.5 #8 |
| Pull-ups & step-backs | 9.0 #9 | 11.2 #3 |
| Cuts & lobs | 6.2 #6 | 4.5 #14 |
| Putbacks | 4.0 #15 | 5.8 #6 |
| Post-ups & turnarounds | 2.4 #14 | 3.3 #10 |
| Other at the rim | 1.6 #14 | 3.1 #3 |
From play-by-play: transition = the first shot within 7 seconds of a defensive rebound, turnover or opponent score; putback = within 3 seconds of the team's own offensive rebound; the rest by the shot label (spot-up = the plain jump shot). Free throws from the box score. Hover a number for the league average. An approximation of play types, not tracking data.
Scoring by quarter and half
per game, last 17 games| LV | PHX | Avg team | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | ||
| Q1 | 23.8 | 20.2 | 20.9 | 23.2 | 22.1 |
| Q2 | 22.9 | 21.2 | 21.4 | 23.4 | 21.4 |
| Q3 | 21.8 | 20.9 | 21.6 | 20.1 | 21.8 |
| Q4 | 22.6 | 22.4 | 22.8 | 22.3 | 21.7 |
| 1st half | 46.7 | 41.4 | 42.3 | 46.6 | 43.5 |
| 2nd half | 45.1 | 43.8 | 44.5 | 42.4 | 43.7 |
| Game | 91.8 | 85.2 | 86.8 | 89.0 | 87.2 |
| Points in the 1st half | 51% | 49% | 49% | 52% | 50% |
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
LV rotation · last 15 games
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackie Young | 32.3 | 22.9 | 4.6 | 6.7 |
| A'ja Wilson | 32.1 | 25.1 | 8.7 | 3.3 |
| Chelsea Gray | 31.8 | 10.4 | 3.0 | 5.4 |
| NaLyssa Smith | 26.5 | 11.7 | 7.7 | 1.0 |
| Jewell Loyd | 23.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Mai Yamamoto | 16.3 | 5.8 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Brianna Turner | 15.6 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 0.2 |
| Stephanie Talbot | 14.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
PHX rotation · last 15 games
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 34.2 | 24.0 | 3.3 | 2.0 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 32.9 | 14.5 | 9.2 | 8.8 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 30.1 | 14.3 | 7.7 | 2.1 |
| Noemie Brochant | 25.7 | 7.9 | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Kelsey Plum | 21.2 | 15.8 | 1.8 | 2.8 |
| Natasha Mack | 20.2 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 0.8 |
| Shay Ciezki | 19.2 | 10.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Sami Whitcomb | 18.5 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 2.5 |
LV · last 10
31-14 · 1 day rest- Sep 22 vs LAW 89–79
- Sep 20 vs SEAW 98–77
- Sep 17 @ SEAW 114–77
- Aug 28 vs TORW 93–73
- Aug 23 @ TORW 88–78
- Aug 20 vs CONW 101–78
- Aug 18 vs ATLL 82–97
- Aug 15 vs MINL 87–92
- Aug 13 vs WSHW 83–76
- Aug 11 vs WSHW 86–76
PHX · last 10
16-28 · 2 days rest- Sep 21 vs DALW 87–86
- Sep 19 @ DALL 82–87
- Sep 17 @ PORW 94–91
- Aug 29 vs TORW 101–69
- Aug 27 vs WSHL 73–80
- Aug 25 vs WSHL 84–94
- Aug 22 vs ATLL 89–99
- Aug 16 vs PORL 85–88
- Aug 11 @ LAW 94–87
- Aug 9 @ WSHL 75–95
Recent meetings
- Sep 24, 2026
LV 100at
PHX 82 - Jul 11, 2026PHX 58atLV 106
- Jun 17, 2026LV 86atPHX 76
- May 9, 2026PHX 99atLV 66
- Oct 10, 2025LV 97atPHX 86
- Oct 8, 2025LV 90atPHX 88
- Oct 5, 2025PHX 78atLV 91
- Oct 3, 2025PHX 86atLV 89
- Aug 21, 2025PHX 61atLV 83
- Aug 15, 2025LV 86atPHX 83
Finished meetings between these two teams in the data we have. Descriptive history, not a forecast of tonight.
From box scores and play-by-play. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.