Player props
Closing lines at DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM · last 10 this season
Averages over the games shown; the small number is the difference from the season average.
Closing lines fill in game by game from our first props pull (Sep 23, 2026); none of these games has one yet.
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 23.5 | -124 | -104 |
| FanDuel | 24.5 | -115 | -128 |
Shot types vs MIN
2026, 44 games
| Type | Points | FGA | FG% | MIN allows |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pull-ups & step-backs | 5.5 (23%) | 4.8 | 45% | 9.5 #8 |
| Drives & floaters | 4.5 (18%) | 4.2 | 54% | 12.2 #14 |
| Free throws | 4.3 (18%) | — | — | 14.7 #14 |
| Transition | 3.6 (15%) | 3.1 | 54% | 10.8 #9 |
| Spot-up jumpers | 3.6 (15%) | 2.8 | 44% | 18.8 #5 |
| Cuts & lobs | 1.8 (7%) | 1.2 | 75% | 5.0 #12 |
| Putbacks | 0.8 (3%) | 0.8 | 42% | 5.4 #9 |
| Post-ups & turnarounds | 0.1 (1%) | 0.1 | 75% | 3.4 #8 |
| Other at the rim | 0.1 (1%) | 0.1 | 75% | 3.0 #4 |
MIN allows = points a game its opponents score that way; rank 1 = allows the most. Transition = first shot within 7s of a stop or score; putback = within 3s of an own offensive rebound; the rest by ESPN's shot label.
Shooting zones
Kelsey Mitchell · 1593 attempts, last two seasons
Where they shoot from and how often it goes in, by zone. From ESPN's charted shot locations. Descriptive history, not a forecast.
Similar players vs MIN
Similarity from 2026 box scores
| Date | Player | Vs | Result | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30 | Allisha Gray ATL | 19.2 avg | 23 | +20% |
| Aug 24 | Gabby Williams GS | 14.4 avg | 15 | +4% |
| Aug 21 | Sonia Citron WSH | 17.1 avg | 11 | -36% |
| Aug 19 | Gabby Williams GS | 14.9 avg | 10 | -33% |
| Aug 9 | Arike Ogunbowale DAL | 14.8 avg | 5 | -66% |
| Aug 9 | Paige Bueckers DAL | 20.0 avg | 23 | +15% |
| Aug 6 | Rae Burrell LA | 13.3 avg | 17 | +27% |
| Jul 30 | Marina Mabrey TOR | 21.1 avg | 16 | -24% |
| Jul 28 | Marina Mabrey TOR | 21.0 avg | 25 | +19% |
| Jul 15 | Rae Burrell LA | 12.5 avg | 24 | +91% |
Compared with: Allisha Gray, Kahleah Copper, Arike Ogunbowale, Kelsey Plum, Brittney Sykes, Sydney Taylor, Paige Bueckers, Gabby Williams, Rae Burrell, Marina Mabrey, Sonia Citron, Jovana Nogic.
Players whose minutes and per-36 scoring, rebounding, playmaking, three-point and free-throw volume, steals, blocks and turnovers are closest to this player's. Each game is measured against its closing line (CLOSE) where we have one, otherwise against that player's own average in the same season before that game (AVG). Other players' history, not a projection for this one.
At a glance
| IND | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-16 | Record | 33-11 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 | 6-4 |
| +6.5#4 | Net rating | +8.7#2 |
| 112.2#1 | Offense | 109.9#3 |
| 105.7#9 | Defense | 101.2#4 |
| 85.5#2 | Pace | 82.7#10 |
| 56.2#1 | eFG% | 54.2#3 |
| 51.6#9 | Opp eFG% | 50.2#3 |
| 15.3#8 | Turnover % | 14.5#6 |
| 25.2#9 | Off. rebound % | 28.1#3 |
Per 100 possessions; rank 1 = best (for Defense and Opp eFG%, the lowest).
The shape of the matchup
Each axis is a percentile among 15 teams on that measure (1 = best), offense on the left half of the wheel, defense on the right. Bigger is better.
Ratings · 2026
The four factors
League rank among 15 teams (1 = best; a defense ranks well for allowing less shooting, more turnovers forced, fewer offensive rebounds and fewer free throws).
Shot types
2026 · points a game by shot type · rank 1 = the most in the league
IND offense vs MIN defense
| Type | IND scores | MIN allows |
|---|---|---|
| Spot-up jumpers | 17.2 #10 | 18.8 #5 |
| Free throws | 18.2 #3 | 14.7 #14 |
| Drives & floaters | 15.1 #6 | 12.2 #14 |
| Transition | 13.4 #3 | 10.8 #9 |
| Pull-ups & step-backs | 12.8 #3 | 9.5 #8 |
| Cuts & lobs | 6.8 #4 | 5.0 #12 |
| Putbacks | 5.4 #7 | 5.4 #9 |
| Post-ups & turnarounds | 3.0 #9 | 3.4 #8 |
| Other at the rimmatch | 3.1 #5 | 3.0 #4 |
MIN offense vs IND defense
| Type | MIN scores | IND allows |
|---|---|---|
| Spot-up jumpers | 19.0 #4 | 17.3 #8 |
| Free throws | 14.2 #15 | 17.3 #5 |
| Drives & floaters | 14.0 #10 | 15.6 #2 |
| Transition | 11.6 #6 | 11.6 #7 |
| Pull-ups & step-backs | 11.8 #4 | 9.0 #10 |
| Cuts & lobs | 7.4 #2 | 5.8 #6 |
| Putbacks | 7.3 #1 | 5.1 #11 |
| Post-ups & turnarounds | 2.4 #13 | 4.5 #1 |
| Other at the rim | 2.4 #9 | 3.2 #2 |
From ESPN play-by-play: transition = the first shot within 7 seconds of a defensive rebound, turnover or opponent score; putback = within 3 seconds of the team's own offensive rebound; the rest by ESPN's shot label (spot-up = the plain jump shot). Free throws from the box score. Hover a number for the league average. An approximation of play types, not tracking data.
Scoring by quarter and half
per game, last 17 games| IND | MIN | Avg team | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | ||
| Q1 | 24.8 | 24.2 | 23.2 | 21.8 | 22.2 |
| Q2 | 23.9 | 22.8 | 24.5 | 20.6 | 21.4 |
| Q3 | 22.5 | 24.0 | 22.6 | 19.5 | 21.8 |
| Q4 | 24.1 | 19.5 | 19.1 | 22.8 | 21.7 |
| 1st half | 48.8 | 47.0 | 47.7 | 42.4 | 43.6 |
| 2nd half | 47.9 | 44.8 | 41.8 | 42.2 | 43.7 |
| Game | 96.7 | 91.8 | 89.5 | 84.6 | 87.3 |
| Points in the 1st half | 50% | 51% | 53% | 50% | 50% |
Average points per game in each period, from ESPN box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
IND rotation · last 15 games
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Clark | 34.8 | 24.9 | 4.1 | 9.4 |
| Kelsey Mitchell | 33.5 | 27.9 | 1.7 | 2.9 |
| Aliyah Boston | 29.3 | 15.3 | 7.8 | 3.6 |
| Makayla Timpson | 26.2 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 0.6 |
| Sophie Cunningham | 21.4 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| Lexie Hull | 16.1 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| Monique Billings | 14.9 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 0.6 |
| Tyasha Harris | 11.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
MIN rotation · last 15 games
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayla McBride | 31.6 | 16.2 | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| Olivia Miles | 31.4 | 20.5 | 4.5 | 6.0 |
| Napheesa Collier | 30.2 | 17.0 | 6.6 | 2.6 |
| Courtney Williams | 28.6 | 11.1 | 3.6 | 4.3 |
| Natasha Howard | 26.6 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 3.7 |
| Nia Brodie | 15.7 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| Maya Caldwell | 13.9 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 |
| Dorka Juhasz | 13.8 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
IND · last 10
28-16 · 1 day rest- Sep 22 vs MINW 96–77
- Sep 20 vs WSHL 77–93
- Sep 18 @ TORW 103–85
- Aug 28 vs CONW 111–91
- Aug 23 @ CHIW 113–90
- Aug 22 @ NYL 102–109
- Aug 20 @ DALL 85–91
- Aug 18 @ TORW 101–95
- Aug 16 @ ATLW 95–91
- Aug 14 vs DALW 98–87
MIN · last 10
33-11 · 1 day rest- Sep 22 @ INDL 77–96
- Sep 20 @ CONW 101–89
- Sep 18 vs NYL 81–93
- Aug 30 @ ATLL 81–89
- Aug 24 vs GSL 66–80
- Aug 21 @ WSHW 94–84
- Aug 19 @ GSW 77–66
- Aug 15 @ LVW 92–87
- Aug 12 @ PORW 85–81
- Aug 9 vs DALW 103–90
Recent meetings
- Sep 24, 2026
IND 66at
MIN 86 - Sep 22, 2026MIN 77atIND 96
- Aug 2, 2026IND 100atMIN 108
- Sep 9, 2025MIN 72atIND 83
- Aug 24, 2025IND 84atMIN 97
- Aug 22, 2025MIN 95atIND 90
- Jul 1, 2025IND 74atMIN 59
- Sep 6, 2024MIN 99atIND 88
- Aug 24, 2024IND 80atMIN 90
- Jul 14, 2024IND 81atMIN 74
Finished meetings between these two teams in the data we have. Descriptive history, not a forecast of tonight.
From ESPN box scores and play-by-play. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM via TheRundown; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.