The model's read on Toronto Tempo at Connecticut Sun
The numbers above are the market's. Premium adds the model's call on this game.
- ✓Who the model picks, and how sure it is
- ✓Spread and total leans against the market
- ✓The matchups behind the call, in plain English
Player props
No lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Averages over the games shown; the small number is the difference from the season average.
Closing lines fill in game by game from our first props pull (Sep 23, 2026); none of these games has one yet.
Shot types vs CON
2026, 32 games
| Type | Points | FGA | FG% | CON allows |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pull-ups & step-backs | 5.5 (27%) | 5.2 | 41% | 8.4 #14 |
| Free throws | 3.9 (19%) | — | — | 19.0 #2 |
| Spot-up jumpers | 3.5 (17%) | 3.1 | 38% | 16.5 #11 |
| Drives & floaters | 3.3 (16%) | 2.8 | 57% | 17.5 #1 |
| Transition | 2.7 (13%) | 2.8 | 42% | 9.9 #13 |
| Putbacks | 0.7 (3%) | 0.6 | 45% | 4.7 #12 |
| Cuts & lobs | 0.4 (2%) | 0.3 | 67% | 5.6 #8 |
| Post-ups & turnarounds | 0.3 (1%) | 0.4 | 29% | 3.4 #9 |
| Other at the rim | 0.2 (1%) | 0.1 | 75% | 2.4 #14 |
CON allows = points a game its opponents score that way; rank 1 = allows the most. Transition = first shot within 7s of a stop or score; putback = within 3s of an own offensive rebound; the rest by the shot label.
Shooting zones
Marina Mabrey · 982 attempts, last two seasons
Where they shoot from and how often it goes in, by zone. From charted shot locations. Descriptive history, not a forecast.
Similar players vs CON
Similarity from 2026 box scores
| Date | Player | Vs | Result | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20 | Olivia Miles MIN | 19.7 avg | 21 | +7% |
| Aug 28 | Kelsey Mitchell IND | 24.8 avg | 34 | +37% |
| Aug 25 | Sydney Taylor CHI | 14.2 avg | 4 | -72% |
| Aug 22 | Rae Burrell LA | 14.2 avg | 20 | +41% |
| Aug 20 | Jackie Young LV | 18.9 avg | 24 | +27% |
| Aug 18 | Rae Burrell LA | 14.1 avg | 19 | +35% |
| Aug 7 | Kelsey Plum PHX | 23.3 avg | 25 | +7% |
| Aug 7 | Kahleah Copper PHX | 21.0 avg | 16 | -24% |
| Jul 30 | Sydney Taylor CHI | 14.2 avg | 14 | -1% |
| Jul 22 | Kelsey Mitchell IND | 23.3 avg | 23 | -1% |
Compared with: Kelsey Plum, Sydney Taylor, Sabrina Ionescu, Satou Sabally, Kelsey Mitchell, Flau'jae Johnson, Jackie Young, Kahleah Copper, Olivia Miles, Jovana Nogic, Natisha Hiedeman, Rae Burrell.
Players whose minutes and per-36 scoring, rebounding, playmaking, three-point and free-throw volume, steals, blocks and turnovers are closest to this player's. Each game is measured against its closing line (CLOSE) where we have one, otherwise against that player's own average in the same season before that game (AVG). Other players' history, not a projection for this one.
At a glance
| TOR | CON | |
|---|---|---|
| 11-33 | Record | 11-33 |
| 1-9 | Last 10 | 2-8 |
| -10.5#14 | Net rating | -11.1#15 |
| 103.0#9 | Offense | 95.3#15 |
| 113.5#15 | Defense | 106.4#11 |
| 83.2#7 | Pace | 82.8#9 |
| 50.4#10 | eFG% | 46.8#15 |
| 54.7#15 | Opp eFG% | 52.6#10 |
| 15.9#10 | Turnover % | 15.7#9 |
| 26.1#5 | Off. rebound % | 25.9#7 |
Per 100 possessions; rank 1 = best (for Defense and Opp eFG%, the lowest).
The shape of the matchup
Each axis is a percentile among 15 teams on that measure (1 = best), offense on the left half of the wheel, defense on the right. Bigger is better.
Ratings · 2026
The four factors
League rank among 15 teams (1 = best; a defense ranks well for allowing less shooting, more turnovers forced, fewer offensive rebounds and fewer free throws).
Shot types
2026 · points a game by shot type · rank 1 = the most in the league
TOR offense vs CON defense
| Type | TOR scores | CON allows |
|---|---|---|
| Spot-up jumpers | 18.2 #7 | 16.5 #11 |
| Free throws | 17.0 #7 | 19.0 #2 |
| Drives & floaters | 14.0 #9 | 17.5 #1 |
| Transition | 10.9 #9 | 9.9 #13 |
| Pull-ups & step-backs | 10.5 #6 | 8.4 #14 |
| Cuts & lobs | 4.2 #14 | 5.6 #8 |
| Putbacks | 5.2 #10 | 4.7 #12 |
| Post-ups & turnarounds | 2.7 #11 | 3.4 #9 |
| Other at the rim | 2.2 #12 | 2.4 #14 |
CON offense vs TOR defense
| Type | CON scores | TOR allows |
|---|---|---|
| Spot-up jumpers | 14.4 #14 | 20.9 #2 |
| Free throws | 14.7 #12 | 17.1 #6 |
| Drives & floaters | 12.7 #13 | 14.2 #7 |
| Transition | 10.3 #12 | 12.2 #4 |
| Pull-ups & step-backs | 8.3 #11 | 8.9 #11 |
| Cuts & lobs | 4.5 #13 | 6.6 #2 |
| Putbacksmatch | 5.8 #5 | 6.9 #1 |
| Post-ups & turnarounds | 4.1 #3 | 3.5 #7 |
| Other at the rimmatch | 3.4 #2 | 3.3 #1 |
From play-by-play: transition = the first shot within 7 seconds of a defensive rebound, turnover or opponent score; putback = within 3 seconds of the team's own offensive rebound; the rest by the shot label (spot-up = the plain jump shot). Free throws from the box score. Hover a number for the league average. An approximation of play types, not tracking data.
Scoring by quarter and half
per game, last 17 games| TOR | CON | Avg team | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | ||
| Q1 | 20.1 | 24.7 | 20.6 | 23.5 | 22.1 |
| Q2 | 20.4 | 23.1 | 19.9 | 23.1 | 21.4 |
| Q3 | 19.8 | 25.7 | 18.3 | 22.1 | 21.8 |
| Q4 | 20.7 | 22.7 | 18.2 | 20.9 | 21.7 |
| 1st half | 40.4 | 47.8 | 40.5 | 46.6 | 43.5 |
| 2nd half | 40.5 | 48.4 | 36.5 | 43.0 | 43.7 |
| Game | 80.9 | 96.2 | 77.1 | 89.6 | 87.2 |
| Points in the 1st half | 50% | 50% | 53% | 52% | 50% |
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
TOR rotation · last 15 games
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Mabrey | 30.0 | 20.4 | 2.0 | 3.4 |
| Kiki Rice | 28.1 | 14.0 | 2.7 | 4.2 |
| Laura Juskaite | 27.5 | 13.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 |
| Julie Allemand | 27.3 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 5.4 |
| Nyara Sabally | 25.4 | 15.0 | 7.6 | 1.8 |
| Maria Conde | 25.3 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 3.0 |
| Isabelle Harrison | 23.4 | 11.3 | 7.3 | 1.5 |
| Kiana Williams | 19.7 | 6.0 | 0.3 | 1.3 |
CON rotation · last 15 games
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leila Lacan | 27.6 | 10.1 | 1.8 | 4.6 |
| Charlisse Leger-Walker | 25.9 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 4.2 |
| Aaliyah Edwards | 24.7 | 14.2 | 6.7 | 1.1 |
| Kennedy Burke | 24.5 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| Diamond Miller | 23.8 | 12.0 | 3.4 | 1.6 |
| Saniya Rivers | 22.8 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 2.9 |
| Olivia Nelson-Ododa | 21.3 | 11.3 | 6.3 | 0.8 |
| Hailey Van Lith | 15.9 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
TOR · last 10
11-33 · 1 day rest- Sep 22 @ CHIL 85–97
- Sep 20 vs NYL 69–106
- Sep 18 vs INDL 85–103
- Aug 29 @ PHXL 69–101
- Aug 28 @ LVL 73–93
- Aug 26 @ SEAL 78–90
- Aug 23 vs LVL 78–88
- Aug 21 vs PORW 82–79
- Aug 19 @ WSHL 82–93
- Aug 18 vs INDL 95–101
CON · last 10
11-33 · 1 day rest- Sep 22 @ WSHL 69–79
- Sep 20 vs MINL 89–101
- Sep 17 @ ATLL 59–103
- Aug 30 @ DALL 71–97
- Aug 28 @ INDL 91–111
- Aug 26 vs GSL 64–89
- Aug 25 vs CHIW 87–81
- Aug 22 @ LAL 68–77
- Aug 20 @ LVL 78–101
- Aug 18 vs LAW 85–77
Recent meetings
- Sep 24, 2026
TOR 81at
CON 95 - Jun 19, 2026TOR 101atCON 97
- Jun 10, 2026CON 102atTOR 106
Finished meetings between these two teams in the data we have. Descriptive history, not a forecast of tonight.
From box scores and play-by-play. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.