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Closing lines at DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM · last 10 this season

Paige Bueckers
Paige Bueckers
DAL vs SEA
Player page →
Line
21.5PTSO -113U -120
Hit rate
60.0% [6/10]
90% range 35–81% · books imply 49.3% over
PTS
22.9
+2.1
REB
4.2
+0.1
AST
6.1
+0.2
3PM
2.4
+0.5
MIN
31.3
-1.5

Averages over the games shown; the small number is the difference from the season average.

Closing lines fill in game by game from our first props pull (Sep 23, 2026); none of these games has one yet.

Aug 12 vs TOR: 22 (line 21.5)22TORAug 12Aug 14 @ IND: 29 (line 21.5)29@INDAug 14Aug 17 @ GS: 21 (line 21.5)21@GSAug 17Aug 20 vs IND: 13 (line 21.5)13INDAug 20Aug 23 vs SEA: 32 (line 21.5)32SEAAug 23Aug 25 vs POR: 22 (line 21.5)22PORAug 25Aug 30 vs CON: 15 (line 21.5)15CONAug 30Sep 17 vs LA: 19 (line 21.5)19LASep 17Sep 19 vs PHX: 26 (line 21.5)26PHXSep 19Sep 21 @ PHX: 30 (line 21.5)30@PHXSep 2121.5
What if the line were21.5 (6-4)
BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings21.5-113-120
FanDuel20.5-130+100

Shot types vs SEA

2026, 42 games

TypePointsFGAFG%SEA allows
Pull-ups & step-backs6.3 (30%)6.048%8.8 #12
Spot-up jumpers3.4 (16%)2.844%19.0 #4
Free throws3.0 (15%)——18.5 #4
Drives & floaters2.4 (12%)1.866%13.4 #12
Transition2.2 (10%)2.148%11.8 #6
Post-ups & turnarounds1.9 (9%)1.851%2.6 #13
Cuts & lobs0.8 (4%)0.589%5.4 #10
Putbacks0.6 (3%)0.558%5.5 #7
Other at the rim0.1 (1%)0.150%3.0 #6

SEA allows = points a game its opponents score that way; rank 1 = allows the most. Transition = first shot within 7s of a stop or score; putback = within 3s of an own offensive rebound; the rest by ESPN's shot label.

Shooting zones

Paige Bueckers · 1197 attempts, last two seasons

73%14054%45645%11944%944%1859%1126%1940%258
Restricted area: 102/140 (73%)
Paint (non-RA): 245/456 (54%)
Left mid-range: 53/119 (45%)
Center mid-range: 4/9 (44%)
Right mid-range: 81/185 (44%)
Left corner 3: 1/11 (9%)
Right corner 3: 5/19 (26%)
Above the break 3: 103/258 (40%)

Where they shoot from and how often it goes in, by zone. From ESPN's charted shot locations. Descriptive history, not a forecast.

Similar players vs SEA

Similarity from 2026 box scores

Avg diff
+0.19
Avg diff %
+4%
Went over
50% (15/30)
DatePlayerVsResultDiff
Sep 23Arike Ogunbowale DAL15.5 close23+48%
Sep 20Jackie Young LV19.6 avg23+17%
Sep 19Veronica Burton GS12.1 avg9-26%
Sep 17Jackie Young LV19.2 avg35+82%
Aug 30Rae Burrell LA14.4 avg22+53%
Aug 26Kiki Rice TOR12.0 avg24+99%
Aug 23Arike Ogunbowale DAL15.3 avg7-54%
Aug 16Natasha Cloud CHI10.2 avg20+95%
Aug 10Natasha Cloud CHI10.4 avg7-33%
Aug 5Sabrina Ionescu NY16.8 avg15-10%
1 / 3

Compared with: Jackie Young, Skylar Diggins, Sonia Citron, Olivia Miles, Kiki Rice, Arike Ogunbowale, Sabrina Ionescu, Natasha Cloud, Courtney Williams, Kelsey Plum, Veronica Burton, Rae Burrell.

Players whose minutes and per-36 scoring, rebounding, playmaking, three-point and free-throw volume, steals, blocks and turnovers are closest to this player's. Each game is measured against its closing line (CLOSE) where we have one, otherwise against that player's own average in the same season before that game (AVG). Other players' history, not a projection for this one.

At a glance
DALSEA
27-17Record8-36
7-3Last 102-8
+5.0#6Net rating-8.0#13
108.6#4Offense97.6#14
103.6#5Defense105.6#8
82.3#12Pace84.2#4
52.6#6eFG%48.4#14
50.6#5Opp eFG%50.3#4
13.2#2Turnover %16.0#11
25.4#8Off. rebound %24.5#11

Per 100 possessions; rank 1 = best (for Defense and Opp eFG%, the lowest).

The shape of the matchup

Effective field-goal percentage (offense)ShootingTurnovers per 100 plays — fewer is better (offense)TurnoversShare of its own misses rebounded (offense)O-Reb%Free throws made per field-goal attempt (offense)FT rateEffective field-goal percentage allowed (defense)Shooting DTurnovers forced per 100 plays (defense)TakeawaysShare of opponent misses kept off the boards (defense)D-Reb%Free throws allowed per field-goal attempt — fewer is better (defense)FT def
DALSEA

Each axis is a percentile among 15 teams on that measure (1 = best), offense on the left half of the wheel, defense on the right. Bigger is better.

Ratings · 2026

+5.0 #6Net rating−8.0 #13
108.6 #4Offensive rating97.6 #14
103.6 #5Defensive rating105.6 #8
82.3 #12Pace84.2 #4
DALSEA

The four factors

DAL offense vs SEA defenseDAL OSEA D
Shooting (eFG%)52.6% #650.3% #4
Turnovers13.2% #215.0% #8
Offensive rebounding25.4% #827.4% #12
Free throws (FTr)20.6% #1426.4% #12
Rating108.6 #4105.6 #8
SEA offense vs DAL defenseSEA ODAL D
Shooting (eFG%)48.4% #1450.6% #5
Turnovers16.0% #1114.0% #13
Offensive rebounding24.5% #1124.1% #4
Free throws (FTr)21.3% #1222.1% #6
Rating97.6 #14103.6 #5

League rank among 15 teams (1 = best; a defense ranks well for allowing less shooting, more turnovers forced, fewer offensive rebounds and fewer free throws).

Shot types

2026 · points a game by shot type · rank 1 = the most in the league

DAL offense vs SEA defense

TypeDAL scoresSEA allows
Spot-up jumpers18.4 #619.0 #4
Free throws14.6 #1318.5 #4
Drives & floaters12.1 #1413.4 #12
Transition13.6 #211.8 #6
Pull-ups & step-backs14.0 #18.8 #12
Cuts & lobs4.8 #105.4 #10
Putbacks4.9 #115.5 #7
Post-ups & turnarounds3.5 #72.6 #13
Other at the rim2.6 #73.0 #6

SEA offense vs DAL defense

TypeSEA scoresDAL allows
Spot-up jumpers18.4 #515.4 #15
Free throws14.8 #1115.3 #10
Drives & floaters12.9 #1214.9 #5
Transition10.4 #1010.0 #12
Pull-ups & step-backs8.0 #1210.3 #7
Cuts & lobs4.6 #116.5 #3
Putbacksmatch5.9 #46.0 #3
Post-ups & turnarounds4.0 #43.6 #6
Other at the rim2.4 #102.6 #10

From ESPN play-by-play: transition = the first shot within 7 seconds of a defensive rebound, turnover or opponent score; putback = within 3 seconds of the team's own offensive rebound; the rest by ESPN's shot label (spot-up = the plain jump shot). Free throws from the box score. Hover a number for the league average. An approximation of play types, not tracking data.

Scoring by quarter and half

per game, last 17 games
DALSEAAvg team
ForAgainstForAgainst
Q123.419.918.025.822.2
Q222.221.121.923.321.4
Q322.220.022.621.821.8
Q420.222.820.922.121.7
1st half45.641.039.949.143.6
2nd half42.542.843.543.943.7
Game88.183.883.592.987.3
Points in the 1st half52%49%48%53%50%

Average points per game in each period, from ESPN box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.

DAL rotation · last 15 games

PlayerMinPtsRebAst
Paige Bueckers31.321.04.05.3
Azzi Fudd30.39.71.31.3
Arike Ogunbowale30.115.52.83.6
Jessica Shepard27.813.19.14.5
Alanna Smith24.19.85.81.0
Awak Kuier20.97.15.21.2
Alysha Clark15.43.62.80.9
Maddy Siegrist15.46.62.61.2

SEA rotation · last 15 games

PlayerMinPtsRebAst
Natisha Hiedeman32.112.52.45.0
Flau'jae Johnson28.517.23.82.8
Dominique Malonga26.717.99.21.9
Jade Melbourne26.49.62.53.8
Awa Fam24.28.06.11.4
Ezi Magbegor23.18.24.02.1
Taylor Thierry16.43.42.90.9
Jordan Horston16.34.73.51.1

DAL · last 10

27-17 · 1 day rest
  • Sep 21 @ PHXL 86–87
  • Sep 19 vs PHXW 87–82
  • Sep 17 vs LAW 97–77
  • Aug 30 vs CONW 97–71
  • Aug 25 vs PORW 96–78
  • Aug 23 vs SEAW 92–70
  • Aug 20 vs INDW 91–85
  • Aug 17 @ GSL 70–78
  • Aug 14 @ INDL 87–98
  • Aug 12 vs TORW 94–88
7-3 in these

SEA · last 10

8-36 · 2 days rest
  • Sep 20 @ LVL 77–98
  • Sep 19 @ GSL 57–70
  • Sep 17 vs LVL 77–114
  • Aug 30 vs LAL 74–90
  • Aug 26 vs TORW 90–78
  • Aug 23 @ DALL 70–92
  • Aug 16 vs CHIL 80–82
  • Aug 14 vs PORL 82–84
  • Aug 10 vs CHIW 97–88
  • Aug 8 @ PORL 93–100
2-8 in these

Recent meetings

  • Sep 23, 2026DAL 103atSEA 91
  • Aug 23, 2026SEA 70atDAL 92
  • Jun 22, 2026DAL 112atSEA 110
  • Jun 1, 2026SEA 56atDAL 79
  • Aug 22, 2025SEA 95atDAL 60
  • Jul 22, 2025DAL 87atSEA 63
  • Jun 3, 2025DAL 77atSEA 83
  • May 19, 2025SEA 79atDAL 71
  • Sep 13, 2024SEA 83atDAL 81
  • Jul 1, 2024DAL 71atSEA 95

Finished meetings between these two teams in the data we have. Descriptive history, not a forecast of tonight.

From ESPN box scores and play-by-play. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM via TheRundown; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.