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A'ja Wilson
A'ja Wilson
LV vs LA
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No line posted
Showing the games against 26.5
Hit rate
60.0% [6/10]
90% range 35–81%
PTS
24.9
-1.3
REB
8.1
-1.2
AST
3.3
+0.1
3PM
0.7
-0.2
MIN
31.7
-0.2

Averages over the games shown; the small number is the difference from the season average.

Closing lines fill in game by game from our first props pull (Sep 23, 2026); none of these games has one yet.

Aug 8 @ MIN: 16 (line 26.5)16@MINAug 8Aug 11 vs WSH: 26 (line 26.5)26WSHAug 11Aug 13 vs WSH: 15 (line 26.5)15WSHAug 13Aug 15 vs MIN: 32 (line 26.5)32MINAug 15Aug 18 vs ATL: 27 (line 26.5)27ATLAug 18Aug 20 vs CON: 20 (line 26.5)20CONAug 20Aug 23 @ TOR: 27 (line 26.5)27@TORAug 23Aug 28 vs TOR: 27 (line 26.5)27TORAug 28Sep 17 @ SEA: 29 (line 26.5)29@SEASep 17Sep 20 vs SEA: 30 (line 26.5)30SEASep 2026.5
What if the line were26.5 (6-4)

Shot types vs LA

2026, 41 games

TypePointsFGAFG%LA allows
Free throws6.8 (26%)——15.5 #8
Spot-up jumpers5.0 (19%)4.645%18.0 #7
Transition3.0 (12%)2.267%14.1 #1
Post-ups & turnarounds3.0 (11%)2.853%2.5 #15
Pull-ups & step-backs2.6 (10%)3.044%10.5 #5
Drives & floaters2.6 (10%)2.453%14.8 #6
Putbacks1.7 (6%)1.265%6.0 #4
Other at the rim0.8 (3%)0.662%2.4 #12
Cuts & lobs0.7 (3%)0.568%6.9 #1

LA allows = points a game its opponents score that way; rank 1 = allows the most. Transition = first shot within 7s of a stop or score; putback = within 3s of an own offensive rebound; the rest by ESPN's shot label.

Shooting zones

A'ja Wilson · 1621 attempts, last two seasons

72%29148%91842%14140%1046%9642%1242%1941%134
Restricted area: 209/291 (72%)
Paint (non-RA): 444/918 (48%)
Left mid-range: 59/141 (42%)
Center mid-range: 4/10 (40%)
Right mid-range: 44/96 (46%)
Left corner 3: 5/12 (42%)
Right corner 3: 8/19 (42%)
Above the break 3: 55/134 (41%)

Where they shoot from and how often it goes in, by zone. From ESPN's charted shot locations. Descriptive history, not a forecast.

Similar players vs LA

Similarity from 2026 box scores

Avg diff
-0.64
Avg diff %
-6%
Went over
44% (11/25)
DatePlayerVsResultDiff
Aug 30Dominique Malonga SEA17.0 avg17-0%
Aug 28Shakira Austin WSH16.8 avg19+13%
Aug 24Angel Reese ATL16.3 avg11-32%
Aug 20Angel Reese ATL15.7 avg20+27%
Aug 15Shakira Austin WSH16.7 avg17+2%
Aug 13Breanna Stewart NY21.4 avg11-49%
Aug 6Napheesa Collier MIN18.3 avg21+15%
Aug 6Natasha Howard MIN15.5 avg8-48%
Aug 5Kamilla Cardoso CHI14.3 avg15+5%
Jul 28Breanna Stewart NY21.2 avg29+37%
1 / 3

Compared with: Breanna Stewart, Shakira Austin, Dominique Malonga, Aliyah Boston, Angel Reese, Kamilla Cardoso, Natasha Howard, Brittney Griner, Isabelle Harrison, Brittney Sykes, Nyara Sabally, Napheesa Collier.

Players whose minutes and per-36 scoring, rebounding, playmaking, three-point and free-throw volume, steals, blocks and turnovers are closest to this player's. Each game is measured against its closing line (CLOSE) where we have one, otherwise against that player's own average in the same season before that game (AVG). Other players' history, not a projection for this one.

At a glance
LALV
16-28Record31-14
4-6Last 108-2
-5.1#11Net rating+6.5#4
103.0#10Offense110.5#2
108.0#13Defense104.0#6
84.5#3Pace82.7#10
52.6#5eFG%54.8#2
53.5#14Opp eFG%50.7#6
16.3#13Turnover %13.6#3
22.0#13Off. rebound %23.3#12

Per 100 possessions; rank 1 = best (for Defense and Opp eFG%, the lowest).

The shape of the matchup

Effective field-goal percentage (offense)ShootingTurnovers per 100 plays — fewer is better (offense)TurnoversShare of its own misses rebounded (offense)O-Reb%Free throws made per field-goal attempt (offense)FT rateEffective field-goal percentage allowed (defense)Shooting DTurnovers forced per 100 plays (defense)TakeawaysShare of opponent misses kept off the boards (defense)D-Reb%Free throws allowed per field-goal attempt — fewer is better (defense)FT def
LALV

Each axis is a percentile among 15 teams on that measure (1 = best), offense on the left half of the wheel, defense on the right. Bigger is better.

Ratings · 2026

−5.1 #11Net rating+6.5 #4
103.0 #10Offensive rating110.5 #2
108.0 #13Defensive rating104.0 #6
84.5 #3Pace82.7 #10
LALV

The four factors

LA offense vs LV defenseLA OLV D
Shooting (eFG%)52.6% #550.7% #6
Turnovers16.3% #1314.9% #9
Offensive rebounding22.0% #1324.7% #7
Free throws (FTr)22.3% #921.9% #5
Rating103.0 #10104.0 #6
LV offense vs LA defenseLV OLA D
Shooting (eFG%)54.8% #253.5% #14
Turnovers13.6% #315.4% #6
Offensive rebounding23.3% #1228.5% #13
Free throws (FTr)23.6% #821.9% #4
Rating110.5 #2108.0 #13

League rank among 15 teams (1 = best; a defense ranks well for allowing less shooting, more turnovers forced, fewer offensive rebounds and fewer free throws).

Shot types

2026 · points a game by shot type · rank 1 = the most in the league

LA offense vs LV defense

TypeLA scoresLV allows
Spot-up jumpers18.2 #816.4 #12
Free throws15.3 #915.4 #9
Drives & floaters14.1 #814.4 #7
Transition11.9 #511.4 #8
Pull-ups & step-backs9.7 #811.1 #3
Cuts & lobs5.8 #74.5 #14
Putbacks5.3 #85.7 #6
Post-ups & turnarounds3.5 #63.3 #10
Other at the rim2.6 #83.1 #3

LV offense vs LA defense

TypeLV scoresLA allows
Spot-up jumpers17.1 #1118.0 #7
Free throws16.4 #815.5 #8
Drives & floaters10.7 #1514.8 #6
Transitionmatch12.8 #414.1 #1
Pull-ups & step-backsmatch13.1 #210.5 #5
Cuts & lobs5.4 #86.9 #1
Putbacks5.2 #106.0 #4
Post-ups & turnarounds5.9 #12.5 #15
Other at the rim3.4 #32.4 #12

From ESPN play-by-play: transition = the first shot within 7 seconds of a defensive rebound, turnover or opponent score; putback = within 3 seconds of the team's own offensive rebound; the rest by ESPN's shot label (spot-up = the plain jump shot). Free throws from the box score. Hover a number for the league average. An approximation of play types, not tracking data.

Scoring by quarter and half

per game, last 17 games
LALVAvg team
ForAgainstForAgainst
Q120.124.023.820.222.1
Q220.919.622.921.221.4
Q319.920.921.820.921.8
Q423.022.422.622.421.7
1st half41.043.646.741.443.5
2nd half42.943.445.143.843.7
Game83.986.991.885.287.2
Points in the 1st half49%50%51%49%50%

Average points per game in each period, from ESPN box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.

LA rotation · last 15 games

PlayerMinPtsRebAst
Nneka Ogwumike29.917.38.93.1
Rae Burrell29.617.02.43.3
Dearica Hamby26.914.06.32.4
Ariel Atkins25.97.02.93.1
Erica Wheeler23.28.71.74.6
Cameron Brink21.610.25.82.1
Monique Akoa Makani18.64.31.21.9
Tonie Morgan15.95.01.22.6

LV rotation · last 15 games

PlayerMinPtsRebAst
A'ja Wilson32.426.28.73.6
Jackie Young32.423.94.46.6
Chelsea Gray31.910.43.05.6
NaLyssa Smith25.811.37.41.0
Jewell Loyd23.56.22.11.3
Mai Yamamoto16.86.01.31.7
Brianna Turner16.11.52.30.2
Dana Evans14.63.61.32.0

LA · last 10

16-28 · 1 day rest
  • Sep 20 vs PORW 105–84
  • Sep 17 @ DALL 77–97
  • Aug 30 @ SEAW 90–74
  • Aug 28 vs WSHW 88–82
  • Aug 24 vs ATLL 71–78
  • Aug 22 vs CONW 77–68
  • Aug 20 vs ATLL 88–124
  • Aug 18 @ CONL 77–85
  • Aug 15 @ WSHL 70–80
  • Aug 13 @ NYL 81–85
4-6 in these

LV · last 10

31-14 · 1 day rest
  • Sep 20 vs SEAW 98–77
  • Sep 17 @ SEAW 114–77
  • Aug 28 vs TORW 93–73
  • Aug 23 @ TORW 88–78
  • Aug 20 vs CONW 101–78
  • Aug 18 vs ATLL 82–97
  • Aug 15 vs MINL 87–92
  • Aug 13 vs WSHW 83–76
  • Aug 11 vs WSHW 86–76
  • Aug 9 @ NYL 71–111
7-3 in these

Recent meetings

  • Sep 22, 2026LA 79atLV 89
  • Jun 2, 2026LV 79atLA 69
  • May 23, 2026LA 101atLV 95
  • May 10, 2026LV 105atLA 78
  • Sep 11, 2025LV 103atLA 75
  • Jul 29, 2025LV 89atLA 74
  • Jun 11, 2025LA 97atLV 89
  • May 30, 2025LA 81atLV 96
  • Aug 18, 2024LA 71atLV 87
  • Jul 5, 2024LV 93atLA 98

Finished meetings between these two teams in the data we have. Descriptive history, not a forecast of tonight.

From ESPN box scores and play-by-play. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM via TheRundown; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.