Bashi vs Calderon
Austin Bashi beat Carlos Calderon by submission in round 1 at UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker on Nov 7, 2026.
Rounds 2.5 · over +145 · under −188
4 US books
How it endsThe books' no-vig prices for every way the fight can end. The books price the round and the method separately (never a method inside a given round). Each number is the median chance across books with their margin removed; the price beside it is the best at a US sportsbook. The chance it is still going after a round is read off the round prices.Market
The books gave Bashi 84% to win; it went the distance 28% of the time, and the likeliest single ending was Bashi in round 1 (33.8%).
Outlined: the likeliest single ending. Still going: the chance it has not ended by the end of that round. Rounds line, no vig: over 2.5 rounds 36%. Tap a cell for its price.
How their last fights endedEach fighter's tracked fights before this one, oldest to newest.History
8-2 in the last 10. 6 of 8 wins inside the distance; 0 of 2 losses were finishes.
- LDecisionvs Jose Miguel DelgadoJul 2026
- WSubmission · R1vs John YannisAug 2025
- LDecisionvs Christian RodriguezJan 2025
- WSubmission · R2Dana White's Contender Series: Season 8, Week 4Sep 2024
- WKO/TKO · R1Lights Out Championship 16Jun 2024
7-3 in the last 10. 5 of 7 wins inside the distance; 1 of 3 losses were finishes.
- WDecisionFury Fighting Championship 125Oct 2026
- WSubmission · R4Fury Fighting Championship 119May 2026
- WSubmission · R1Fury Fighting Championship 116Feb 2026
- LDecisionFury Fighting Championship 112Dec 2025
- WDecisionFury Fighting Championship 106Jul 2025
Fight statsEach fighter's own numbers from this bout. A longer bar is a bigger number; volt marks the higher one.History
The strike and takedown numbers for this bout have not been stored yet; they usually arrive within a day of the result.
Rates against the divisionEach fighter's striking and grappling rates from his box-scored fights; the tick on each bar is the division average and a full bar is the division's top 5%. Hover a row for what it measures. A rate with no box scores behind it reads no data, never a zero.History
- 2.5Strikes landed / minno data2.5Strikes landed / minno data
- 2.8Strikes absorbed / minlower is betterno data2.8Strikes absorbed / minlower is betterno data
- 42%Striking accuracyno data42%Striking accuracyno data
- 54%Striking defenseno data54%Striking defenseno data
- 0.08Knockdowns / 15 minno data0.08Knockdowns / 15 minno data
- 4.9Takedowns / 15 minno data4.9Takedowns / 15 minno data
- 35%Takedown accuracyno data35%Takedown accuracyno data
- 57%Takedown defenseno data57%Takedown defenseno data
- 1.2Sub. attempts / 15 minno data1.2Sub. attempts / 15 minno data
- 0.06Ground advances / 15 minno data0.06Ground advances / 15 minno data
Tick: Featherweight average (122 fighters with 3+ tracked fights). Bars start at zero; a full bar is the division's top 5%. The better number of each row is bold.
Strike targets and paceStrike targets are the share of significant strikes to the head, body and legs. Pace is how long his tracked fights lasted and how often he finished early inside the first round.History
Austin Bashi
Form: 3-2 in his last 5 · on L1. Since his last fight: 4 mo.
- LDecision - Unanimous · R3 · UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usmansig. str. 32/87 · abs. 35 · TD 3/14 · KD 0 · sub 1
- Wvs John YannisAug 2, 2025Submission · R1 · UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Parksig. str. 2/7 · abs. 0 · TD 1/1 · KD 0 · sub 1
- Lvs Christian RodriguezJan 12, 2025Decision - Unanimous · R3 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Ribas 2sig. str. 23/50 · abs. 44 · TD 3/18 · KD 0 · sub 0
- WDana White's Contender Series: Season 8, Week 4Sep 4, 2024Submission · R2sig. str. 22/42 · TD 10/15 · KD 0 · sub 2
- WLights Out Championship 16Jun 1, 2024KO/TKO · R1no stats
Carlos Calderon
Form: 4-1 in his last 5 · on W3. Since his last fight: 36 d.
- WFury Fighting Championship 125Oct 2, 2026Decision - Unanimous · R3no stats
- WFury Fighting Championship 119May 17, 2026Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · R4no stats
- WFury Fighting Championship 116Feb 20, 2026Submission (Guillotine) · R1no stats
- LFury Fighting Championship 112Dec 14, 2025Decision - Split · R3no stats
- WFury Fighting Championship 106Jul 18, 2025Decision - Split · R3no stats
Bashi: full history · 12 tracked
| Date | Opponent | Result | Sig. str. | Absorbed | TD | KD | Sub att. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | vs Jose Miguel DelgadoUFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman | LDecision - Unanimous · R3 | 32/87 | 35 | 3/14 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025-08-02 | vs John YannisUFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park | WSubmission · R1 | 2/7 | 0 | 1/1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025-01-12 | vs Christian RodriguezUFC Fight Night: Dern vs Ribas 2 | LDecision - Unanimous · R3 | 23/50 | 44 | 3/18 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024-09-04 | Dana White's Contender Series: Season 8, Week 4 | WSubmission · R2 | 22/42 | — | 10/15 | 0 | 2 |
| 2024-06-01 | Lights Out Championship 16 | WKO/TKO · R1 | no stats | ||||
| 2023-09-30 | Lights Out Championship 13 | WSubmission (Choke) · R2 | no stats | ||||
| 2023-06-24 | Lights Out Championship 12 | WSubmission (Rear Naked Choke) · R1 | no stats | ||||
| 2023-04-29 | Lights Out Championship 11 | WSubmission (Rear Naked Choke) · R2 | no stats | ||||
| 2022-11-13 | Lights Out Championship 9 | WDecision - Unanimous · R5 | no stats | ||||
| 2022-06-25 | Lights Out Championship 8 | WDecision - Unanimous · R3 | no stats | ||||
| 2022-04-10 | Shamrock FC: Shamrock 337 | WKO/TKO · R2 | no stats | ||||
| 2021-12-10 | XFC: Young Guns 4 | WTKO (Ground and Pound) · R1 | no stats | ||||
Calderon: full history · 11 tracked
| Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Fury Fighting Championship 125 | WDecision - Unanimous · R3 |
| 2026-05-17 | Fury Fighting Championship 119 | WSubmission (Rear Naked Choke) · R4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Fury Fighting Championship 116 | WSubmission (Guillotine) · R1 |
| 2025-12-14 | Fury Fighting Championship 112 | LDecision - Split · R3 |
| 2025-07-18 | Fury Fighting Championship 106 | WDecision - Split · R3 |
| 2025-05-25 | Fury Fighting Championship 104 | WSubmission (Guillotine) · R1 |
| 2024-10-02 | vs Alberto MontesDana White's Contender Series: Season 8, Week 8 | LSubmission · R2 |
| 2024-06-23 | LFA 186: Bekoev vs. Foxworth | WSubmission (Rear Naked Choke) · R1 |
| 2023-09-23 | Combate Global: Slice vs. Ewert | WSubmission (Guillotine) · R2 |
| 2023-05-28 | Combate Global: Martinez vs. Zarauz | LDecision - Unanimous · R3 |
| 2022-12-09 | Colorado Combat Club 15 | LSubmission (Rear Naked Choke) · R1 |
Line shop (closing prices)Each US sportsbook's moneyline and rounds line; bold = the best price on that side.
| Book | Calderon | Bashi | Rounds | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | +490 DraftKings | −620 FanDuel | 2.5 | +145 | −188 |
| BetMGM | +475 | −650 | — | — | — |
| DraftKings | +490 | −675 | 2.5 | +145 | −188 |
| FanDuel | +460 | −620 | — | — | — |
| Hard Rock | +450 | −700 | 1.5 | −115 | −115 |
Line movementEach fighter's no-vig win chance from the median book, every hour since lines opened.
Median sportsbook win chance with the books' margin taken out (the same no-vig number as above, the two sides add to 100%), one point an hour since the line opened.
Median sportsbook win chance with the books' margin taken out (the same no-vig number as above, the two sides add to 100%), one point an hour since the line opened.
Fighter numbers are from tracked fights. Prices are the best at US sportsbooks and win chances take the margin out: the books' view, not a forecast. Descriptive data. Data and analytics only, not betting advice: any bet is your own decision, and we are not responsible for losses. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links are plain links, not affiliate links: no sportsbook pays us.