The Sabres (1-1-0) host the Wild (2-0-0) on Oct 6, 2026, 7:00 PM ET.
Market· 4 books· best MIN -106 Caesars (opens Caesars in a new tab) · BUF -106 FanDuel (opens FanDuel in a new tab)·
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
MIN
BUFGoals a game by period, regular season (a shootout is not a period; overtime is per game played). The number on top is goals for, under it goals against. MIN: 2 from 2026–27, 8 from 2025–26. BUF: 2 from 2026–27, 8 from 2025–26.
The starter is not confirmed. This is Jesper Wallstedt, who started MIN's last game, going into this one.
| Start | Rest before | Shots against | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3 vs BOS | 1 day | 27 | 26 |
| Oct 1 @ NSH | 140 days | 20 | 19 |
| May 13 @ COL | 1 day | 34 | 30 |
| May 11 vs COL | 1 day | 32 | 29 |
| May 9 vs COL | 5 days | 36 | 35 |
MIN schedule and box scores; the number under a game is shots faced.The starter is not confirmed. This is Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who started BUF's last game, going into this one.
| Start | Rest before | Shots against | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3 vs CHI | 1 day | 15 | 12 |
| Oct 1 @ CBJ | 135 days | 21 | 16 |
| May 18 vs MTL | 1 day | 25 | 22 |
| May 16 @ MTL | 1 day | 18 | 18 |
| May 14 vs MTL | 1 day | 23 | 18 |
BUF schedule and box scores; the number under a game is shots faced.
vs BOSW4–130–27 SOG
@ NSHW3–130–20 SOG
@ COL2025–26OTL3–420–34 SOGvs COL2025–26L2–521–34 SOGvs COL2025–26W5–126–36 SOG@ COL2025–26L2–531–23 SOG@ COL2025–26L6–936–43 SOG
vs DAL2025–26W5–221–23 SOG@ DAL2025–26W4–228–22 SOGvs DAL2025–26W3–242–45 SOG
vs CHIW4–328–15 SOG
@ CBJL3–626–22 SOG
vs MTL2025–26OTL2–339–25 SOG@ MTL2025–26W8–336–22 SOGvs MTL2025–26L3–636–26 SOG@ MTL2025–26W3–222–31 SOG@ MTL2025–26L2–628–36 SOGvs MTL2025–26L1–529–28 SOGvs MTL2025–26W4–216–28 SOG@ BOS2025–26W4–126–26 SOGCurrent report — a live snapshot, not what it said the day this game was played.
Times are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
Tap or hover a square for its attempts and goals.
Each square is 10 feet of the offensive half, goal at the right, shaded by attempts (shots on goal, misses and blocks) from there; both teams share one scale. A volt dot marks where goals came from. Last 10 games for each team, regular season and playoffs, from our stored play-by-play.
Tap or hover a square for its shots, goals and save percentage.
shots faced (darker = more)goals against (squares with 6+)
| Distance from the net | Shots | Goals | Save % | League | Compared with the league |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point blank10 ft or less | 197 | 23 | .883 | ||
| Close10–25 ft | 307 | 49 | .840 | ||
| Mid-range25–40 ft | 401 | 37 | .908 | ||
| Long40 ft and out | 519 | 11 | .979 | ||
| League = every goalie in a complete game, 148,981 shots on goal. * under 25 shots. | |||||
Counts games he played start to finish: the play-by-play names the goalie on a save but not on a goal, so a goal can be placed only when he was the only one in net (empty-net goals and the shootout are left out). Save percentage is saves over shots on goal; a square or row with few shots swings widely. Where shots came from, not a forecast.
Tap or hover a square for its shots, goals and save percentage.
shots faced (darker = more)goals against (squares with 17+)
| Distance from the net | Shots | Goals | Save % | League | Compared with the league |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point blank10 ft or less | 346 | 72 | .792 | ||
| Close10–25 ft | 582 | 84 | .856 | ||
| Mid-range25–40 ft | 589 | 64 | .891 | ||
| Long40 ft and out | 902 | 24 | .973 | ||
| League = every goalie in a complete game, 148,981 shots on goal. * under 25 shots. | |||||
Counts games he played start to finish: the play-by-play names the goalie on a save but not on a goal, so a goal can be placed only when he was the only one in net (empty-net goals and the shootout are left out). Save percentage is saves over shots on goal; a square or row with few shots swings widely. Where shots came from, not a forecast.
Pro: Hit rates and the gap vs price are part of ProStart 7-day free trialorcreate a free account
Josh Norris · Over 1.5Bars: recent games vs the line (up = over, down = under)
| Measure | MIN | BUF | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shot attempts and shots | |||
| Shot-attempt share | 48.2%#22 of 32 | 51.8%#10 of 32 | 49.8% |
| Even-strength attempt share | 48.4%#20 of 32 | 51.3%#11 of 32 | 49.8% |
| Shots-on-goal share | 50.8%#15 of 32 | 53.4%#8 of 32 | 49.9% |
| Attempts for per game | 53.6#23 of 32 | 55.0#19 of 32 | 56.5 |
| Attempts against per game | 57.5#13 of 32 | 51.2#30 of 32 | 56.8 |
| Special teams | |||
| Power play | 32.0%#4 of 328 goals on 25 chances | 5.9%#30 of 322 goals on 34 chances | 21.1% |
| Power plays per game | 2.50#23 of 32 | 3.40#3 of 32 | 2.77 |
| Penalty kill | 92.6%#4 of 3225 of 27 killed | 78.1%#18 of 3225 of 32 killed | 78.9% |
| Times shorthanded per game | 2.70#17 of 32 | 3.20#3 of 32 | 2.76 |
Last 10 games counted back from each team's latest regular-season game. MIN: 10 games, 8 from 2025–26. BUF: 10 games, 8 from 2025–26. Rank 1 is the highest in the league, even for attempts against, and a rank is a place, not a grade. Attempts are goals, saves, misses and blocked shots from the play-by-play (even strength means neither team on a power play); a game it did not cover is left out. Past games, not a forecast.
| Player | GP | G | A | PTS | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mats Zuccarello | 12 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 26 | 17:49 |
| Ryan Hartman | 13 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 39 | 17:07 |
| Vladimir Tarasenko | 15 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 32 | 15:23 |
| Kirill Kaprizov | 11 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 35 | 20:36 |
| Matt Boldy | 13 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 43 | 19:22 |
| Quinn Hughes | 13 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 28:00 |
| Marcus Johansson | 15 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 24 | 14:33 |
| Brock Faber | 13 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 30 | 24:10 |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | 9 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 25 | 17:29 |
| Jared Spurgeon | 12 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 18:37 |
| Jonas Brodin | 14 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 18:09 |
| Bobby Brink | 10 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 13:59 |
| Player | GP | G | A | PTS | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Dahlin | 14 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 32 | 22:49 |
| Zach Benson | 15 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 34 | 15:23 |
| Tage Thompson | 14 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 37 | 19:31 |
| Josh Norris | 15 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 27 | 15:19 |
| Alex Tuch | 14 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 35 | 19:45 |
| Jason Zucker | 14 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 15:18 |
| Peyton Krebs | 15 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 14:27 |
| Josh Doan | 15 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 14:26 |
| Bowen Byram | 15 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 21:23 |
| Jack Quinn | 15 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 47 | 15:59 |
| Mattias Samuelsson | 14 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 21:32 |
| Owen Power | 15 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 20:52 |
MIN 3series1 BUF| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | MIN 5 | BUF 4 | MIN+1 | +1 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | BUF 3 | MIN 2 | BUF+1 | +1 |
| Mar 22, 2025 | BUF 1 | MIN 4 | MIN+3 | +3 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 2024 | MIN 1 | BUF 0 | MIN+1 | +1 |
From box scores and play-by-play. Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. The goalie shown is the one who started the team's last game; the starter for this game is not confirmed. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | MIN47-23-12 · last 82 games | BUF51-22-9 · last 82 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games past regulation | 32.9%#3 of 32 | 20.7%#23 of 32 | 24.8% |
| 1st period goals against | 0.80#23 of 32 | 0.98#6 of 32 | 0.88 |
| Power-play percentage | 24.8%#5 of 32 | 19.5%#21 of 32 | 21.1% |
| Attempts against per game | 61.6#3 of 32 | 59.0#17 of 32 | 58.2 |
| 3rd period goals for | 1.12#15 of 32 | 1.24#2 of 32 | 1.08 |
| Shooting percentage | 11.3%#15 of 32 | 12.8%#3 of 32 | 11.3% |
The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 82 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.
Where a player's own games in the situations this game has and the books' no-vig chance disagree by more than luck usually explains. Some still are luck. History, not a pick.
Rasmus Dahlin has gone over 2.5 shots on goal in 9 of his last 10 games.
⚠ His role may have changed: 28 minutes on ice a game lately against 24 in these games, and the line may already reflect that.
Lines from regulated US sportsbooks; they can lag what a book shows right now. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.