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Virginia (28-5 in 2025–26) hosts NC State (20-13 in 2025–26) on Mar 6, 2027.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
NCSU offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · UVA defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin)
UVA offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · NCSU defense in 2
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 361 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
NCSUUVA
Expected pace: about 68 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best.
NCSUUVANo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Ven-Allen Lubin's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quadir Copeland | 31.4 | 14.1 | 3.7 | 7.3 |
| Paul McNeil Jr. | 30.6 | 13.9 | 2.9 | 0.7 |
| Darrion Williams | 30.5 | 13.3 | 3.6 | 2.2 |
| Ven-Allen Lubin | 30.0 | 15.3 | 7.7 | 0.6 |
| Tre Holloman | 26.7 | 8.5 | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| Matt Able | 23.5 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.8 |
| Terrance Arceneaux | 17.0 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 0.4 |
| Musa Sagnia | 9.6 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallin Hall | 29.5 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 4.3 |
| Thijs De Ridder | 27.7 | 14.6 | 6.1 | 1.6 |
| Sam Lewis | 26.3 | 11.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 |
| Chance Mallory | 23.8 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 3.5 |
| Malik Thomas | 22.1 | 11.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 |
| Ugonna Onyenso | 20.5 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 0.7 |
| Johann Grunloh | 18.1 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 0.4 |
| Jacari White | 18.0 | 8.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
NCSU offenseper gameUVA defenseRank among 361 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
NCSUForAgainst46% of NCSU's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
UVAForAgainst47% of UVA's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
NCSU 4series6 UVA| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | NCSU 74 | UVA 81 | UVA+7 | +7 |
| Feb 24, 2026 | NCSU 61 | UVA 90 | UVA+29 | +29 |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UVA 76 | NCSU 61 | UVA+15 | +15 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2024 | NCSU 67 | UVA 70 | UVA+3 | +3 |
| Mar 15, 2024 | NCSU 73 | UVA 65 | NCSU+8 | +8 |
| Jan 24, 2024 | NCSU 53 | UVA 59 | UVA+6 | +6 |
| Jan 6, 2024 | UVA 60 | NCSU 76 | NCSU+16 | +16 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2023 | NCSU 50 | UVA 63 | UVA+13 | +13 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2022 | UVA 63 | NCSU 77 | NCSU+14 | +14 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2021 | NCSU 68 | UVA 61 | NCSU+7 | +7 |
From box scores. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | NCSU17-13 · last 30 games | UVA25-5 · last 30 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points against (home at home, visitor on the road) | 83.6#52 of 361 | 65.6#318 of 361 | 74.8 |
| Points allowed per 100 possessions | 111.9#139 of 361 | 103.2#318 of 361 | 109.9 |
| Share of points scored in the 1st half | 46.4%#220 of 361 | 47.8%#84 of 361 | 46.8% |
| Possessions per game | 69.2#104 of 361 | 67.5#214 of 361 | 68.0 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 361 ranked teams, over each team's last 30 regular-season games (Nov 2025 – Mar 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.