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North Carolina (24-8 in 2025–26) hosts Duke (32-2 in 2025–26) on Mar 6, 2027.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
DUKE offense ranks better in 3 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · UNC defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin)
UNC offense ranks better in 1 of 4 matchups · DUKE defense in 3 (2 by a clear margin)
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 361 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
DUKEUNC
Expected pace: about 67 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best.
DUKEUNCNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Cameron Boozer's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Boozer | 34.1 | 21.0 | 10.6 | 4.3 |
| Isaiah Evans | 28.3 | 15.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| Dame Sarr | 26.5 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 |
| Caleb Foster | 25.8 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 3.5 |
| Cayden Boozer | 23.4 | 7.8 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Maliq Brown | 21.7 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 1.8 |
| Patrick Ngongba II | 21.6 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 1.8 |
| Nikolas Khamenia | 20.3 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 0.7 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Wilson | 32.3 | 19.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 |
| Seth Trimble | 31.7 | 13.2 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
| Henri Veesaar | 31.2 | 15.8 | 8.2 | 1.9 |
| Derek Dixon | 27.9 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 3.3 |
| Jarin Stevenson | 26.7 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 0.9 |
| Luka Bogavac | 24.0 | 10.0 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| Jonathan Powell | 15.5 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 0.6 |
| Zayden High | 12.6 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 0.6 |
DUKE offenseper gameUNC defenseRank among 361 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
DUKEForAgainst52% of DUKE's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
UNCForAgainst49% of UNC's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
DUKE 6series4 UNC| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | UNC 61 | DUKE 76 | DUKE+15 | +15 |
| Feb 7, 2026 | DUKE 68 | UNC 71 | UNC+3 | +3 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2025 | UNC 71 | DUKE 74 | DUKE+3 | +3 |
| Mar 8, 2025 | DUKE 82 | UNC 69 | DUKE+13 | +13 |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UNC 70 | DUKE 87 | DUKE+17 | +17 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2024 | UNC 84 | DUKE 79 | UNC+5 | +5 |
| Feb 3, 2024 | DUKE 84 | UNC 93 | UNC+9 | +9 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2023 | DUKE 62 | UNC 57 | DUKE+5 | +5 |
| Feb 4, 2023 | UNC 57 | DUKE 63 | DUKE+6 | +6 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2022 | UNC 81 | DUKE 77 | UNC+4 | +4 |
From box scores. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | DUKE28-2 · last 30 games | UNC22-8 · last 30 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st half points against | 31.1#341 of 361 | 35.6#147 of 361 | 35.0 |
| Possessions per game | 65.5#296 of 361 | 67.8#195 of 361 | 68.0 |
| Points allowed per 100 possessions | 97.2#359 of 361 | 105.8#282 of 361 | 109.9 |
| Scoring margin | +16.7#4 of 361 | +7.3#46 of 361 | −0.5 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 361 ranked teams, over each team's last 30 regular-season games (Nov 2025 – Mar 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.