USC vs UCLA Odds, Stats & Props — Mar 6

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Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.

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What to know

Scoring margin

USC −0.6 · UCLA +6.7

Points scored minus allowed a game, 2025–26. Each team's own average, not a forecast.

Form

USC 2-8 · UCLA 7-3

Each team's record over its last ten games.

Rest

USC 3d · UCLA 2d

Days off before this game, from the schedule.

Offense vs defense: the four factorsHistory

ranks betterranks worseStronger72+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 361 (#1 = best)

USC offensevsUCLA defense

USC offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · UCLA defense in 2 (2 by a clear margin)

Shooting · effective FG%

50.4%

#222

50.4%

Stronger#126

Turnovers · per 100 plays

15.2%

#233

15.7%

Stronger#100

Offensive rebounding %

32.4%

#108Stronger

32.4%

#276

Free throw rate

32.1%

#18Stronger

26.1%

#208

UCLA offensevsUSC defense

UCLA offense ranks better in 4 of 4 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · USC defense in 0

Shooting · effective FG%

53.9%

#69slight

49.7%

#88

Turnovers · per 100 plays

11.7%

#13Stronger

14.2%

#204

Offensive rebounding %

31.1%

#156Stronger

32.2%

#262

Free throw rate

25.4%

#188slight

26.0%

#198

Season box-score numbers; ranks of 361 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.

Key numbers and mismatchesHistory

USCUCLA

−0.8 191stNet rating55th +10.2

108.7 192ndOffensive rating43rd 118.2

109.5 170thDefensive rating130th 108.0

71.6 26thPace294th 65.8

Expected pace: about 69 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best.

Where one side has the better of it

UCLA turnovers
UCLA offense 11.7% (13th) vs USC defense allowing 14.2% (204th)
+191 spots
USC getting to the line
USC offense 32.1% (18th) vs UCLA defense allowing 26.1% (208th)
+190 spots
UCLA scoring
UCLA offense 77.7 (97th) vs USC defense allowing 78.4 (275th)
+178 spots
USC offensive rebounding
USC offense 32.4% (108th) vs UCLA defense allowing 32.4% (276th)
+168 spots
UCLA offensive rebounding
UCLA offense 31.1% (156th) vs USC defense allowing 32.2% (262nd)
+106 spots

ContextHistory

last 10 days

USC

ORE

PSU

UCLA

3 days rest

UCLA

PSU

ORE

USC

2 days rest

homeroadday offthis gameFrom the schedule; travel distance is not tracked.

USC · last 10

17-14 · 359 days rest

Mar 11 @ WASH2025–26L 79–83
Mar 7 vs UCLA2025–26L 68–89
Mar 4 @ WASH2025–26L 72–91
Feb 28 vs NEB2025–26L 67–82
Feb 24 @ UCLA2025–26L 62–81
Feb 21 vs ORE2025–26L 70–71
Feb 18 vs ILL2025–26L 65–101
Feb 11 @ OSU2025–26L 82–89
Feb 8 @ PSU2025–26W 77–75
Feb 3 vs IU2025–26W 81–75

2-8 in these

UCLA · last 10

23-11 · 348 days rest

Mar 22 @ CONN2025–26L 57–73
Mar 20 vs UCF2025–26W 75–71
Mar 14 vs PUR2025–26L 66–73
Mar 13 @ MSU2025–26W 88–84
Mar 12 vs RUTG2025–26W 72–59
Mar 7 @ USC2025–26W 89–68
Mar 3 vs NEB2025–26W 72–52
Feb 28 @ MINN2025–26L 73–78
Feb 24 vs USC2025–26W 81–62
Feb 21 vs ILL2025–26W 95–94

7-3 in these

Player props

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USC Trojans

UCLA Bruins

Chad Baker-Mazara

USC vs UCLA

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USC at UCLA

Full breakdown

Chad Baker-Mazara's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…

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every book and the line history

USC rotation · last 15 games

Player	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast
Kam Woods	33.5	10.9	4.5	4.3
Jacob Cofie	32.4	10.1	7.4	2.1
Ezra Ausar	31.9	12.9	7.3	1.6
Chad Baker-Mazara	28.0	17.2	3.8	1.9
Alijah Arenas	27.6	14.1	2.9	2.1
Jordan Marsh	18.5	8.0	2.1	1.4
Jerry Easter II	16.1	3.4	3.1	0.5
Gabe Dynes	11.0	1.6	2.0	0.4

UCLA rotation · last 15 games

Player	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast
Donovan Dent	34.8	14.1	3.6	8.5
Trent Perry	34.4	14.5	3.3	3.3
Tyler Bilodeau	29.9	16.9	5.9	0.9
Eric Dailey Jr.	28.2	12.3	6.1	1.2
Skyy Clark	27.9	9.1	1.6	1.8
Xavier Booker	20.3	6.9	3.4	0.6
Brandon Williams	12.5	2.8	2.0	0.1
Jamar Brown	12.4	1.7	2.1	0.6

Team rankings (2025–26)History

USC offenseper gameUCLA defense

Effective FG%

222nd50.4%

50.4%126th

Turnover %

233rd15.2%

15.7%100th

Offensive rebound %

108th32.4%

32.4%276th

Free throw rate

18th32.1%

26.1%208th

Points

94th77.8

71.081st

Field goal %

155th45.0%

43.3%97th

2-point %

178th51.8%

52.7%221st

3-point %

294th31.7%

31.8%57th

Free throw %

181st72.6%

75.3%324th

Rebounds

107th36.0

32.864th

Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.

Scoring by halfHistory

per game, last 17 games · the tick is the league's average team

USCForAgainst

1st half

35.3

36.7

2nd half

37.4

42.1

Game

72.7

78.8

49% of USC's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.

UCLAForAgainst

1st half

37.0

33.5

2nd half

39.4

39.5

Game

76.4

72.9

48% of UCLA's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.

Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.

SeriesHistory

10 meetings

USC 2series8 UCLA

Last 10UUUUUUUUUU

Avg total

137.4

combined points

Avg margin

UCLA 8.8

per meeting

Biggest win

UCLA +27

Mar 8, 2025

Last meeting

UCLA won

Mar 7, 2026

Every meetingHistory

2026USC 0-2 UCLA

Date	Road	Home	Winner	Margin
Mar 7, 2026	UCLA 89	USC 68	UCLA+21	+21
Feb 24, 2026	USC 62	UCLA 81	UCLA+19	+19

2025USC 0-2 UCLA

Date	Road	Home	Winner	Margin
Mar 8, 2025	USC 63	UCLA 90	UCLA+27	+27
Jan 27, 2025	UCLA 82	USC 76	UCLA+6	+6

2024USC 1-1 UCLA

Date	Road	Home	Winner	Margin
Feb 24, 2024	USC 62	UCLA 56	USC+6	+6
Jan 27, 2024	UCLA 65	USC 50	UCLA+15	+15

2023USC 1-1 UCLA

Date	Road	Home	Winner	Margin
Jan 26, 2023	UCLA 64	USC 77	USC+13	+13
Jan 5, 2023	USC 58	UCLA 60	UCLA+2	+2

2022USC 0-2 UCLA

Date	Road	Home	Winner	Margin
Mar 11, 2022	USC 59	UCLA 69	UCLA+10	+10
Mar 5, 2022	USC 68	UCLA 75	UCLA+7	+7

Measure	USC16-14 · last 30 games	UCLA20-10 · last 30 games	League
Possessions per game	71.3#29 of 361	65.7#290 of 361	68.0
2nd half points against	42.9#42 of 361	38.1#272 of 361	39.7
Scoring margin (home at home, visitor on the road)	−7.5#236 of 361	+16.3#18 of 361	−0.5
Points scored per 100 possessions	108.5#197 of 361	118.7#31 of 361	109.2

Measure	USC16-14 · last 30 games	UCLA20-10 · last 30 games	League
Possessions per game	71.3#29 of 361	65.7#290 of 361	68.0
2nd half points against	42.9#42 of 361	38.1#272 of 361	39.7
Scoring margin (home at home, visitor on the road)	−7.5#236 of 361	+16.3#18 of 361	−0.5
Points scored per 100 possessions	108.5#197 of 361	118.7#31 of 361	109.2

USC vs UCLA — College Basketball, Mar 6, 2027

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What to know

Offense vs defense: the four factorsHistory