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USC (17-14 in 2025–26) hosts Penn State (12-20 in 2025–26) on Mar 2, 2027.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
PSU offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups · USC defense in 2
USC offense ranks better in 3 of 4 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · PSU defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin)
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 361 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
PSUUSC
Expected pace: about 69 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best.
PSUUSCNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Chad Baker-Mazara's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayden Mingo | 34.1 | 12.4 | 3.1 | 4.1 |
| Josh Reed | 32.6 | 14.4 | 4.3 | 1.0 |
| Ivan Juric | 28.2 | 11.5 | 6.4 | 1.2 |
| Freddie Dilione V | 28.1 | 13.9 | 2.9 | 1.7 |
| Dominick Stewart | 25.5 | 6.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Eli Rice | 20.3 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.3 |
| Melih Tunca | 19.2 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Mason Blackwood | 13.1 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.1 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kam Woods | 33.5 | 10.9 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| Jacob Cofie | 32.4 | 10.1 | 7.4 | 2.1 |
| Ezra Ausar | 31.9 | 12.9 | 7.3 | 1.6 |
| Chad Baker-Mazara | 28.0 | 17.2 | 3.8 | 1.9 |
| Alijah Arenas | 27.6 | 14.1 | 2.9 | 2.1 |
| Jordan Marsh | 18.5 | 8.0 | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Jerry Easter II | 16.1 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 0.5 |
| Gabe Dynes | 11.0 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
PSU offenseper gameUSC defenseRank among 361 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
PSUForAgainst42% of PSU's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
USCForAgainst49% of USC's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
PSU 0series2 USC| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2026 | USC 77 | PSU 75 | USC+2 | +2 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2025 | PSU 67 | USC 92 | USC+25 | +25 |
From box scores. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | PSU10-20 · last 30 games | USC16-14 · last 30 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Share of points allowed in the 1st half | 48.5%#50 of 361 | 45.6%#288 of 361 | 46.9% |
| Possessions per game | 67.0#233 of 361 | 71.3#29 of 361 | 68.0 |
| Share of points scored in the 1st half | 44.4%#346 of 361 | 46.8%#175 of 361 | 46.8% |
| Points allowed per 100 possessions | 120.9#8 of 361 | 110.7#164 of 361 | 109.9 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 361 ranked teams, over each team's last 30 regular-season games (Nov 2025 – Mar 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.