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Miami (25-8 in 2025–26) hosts Pittsburgh (13-20 in 2025–26) on Feb 27, 2027.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
PITT offense ranks better in 1 of 4 matchups · MIA defense in 3 (2 by a clear margin)
MIA offense ranks better in 3 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · PITT defense in 1
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 361 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
PITTMIA
Expected pace: about 67 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best.
PITTMIANo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Malik Reneau's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barry Dunning Jr. | 36.5 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 1.1 |
| Cameron Corhen | 33.7 | 14.7 | 5.7 | 1.9 |
| Damarco Minor | 32.1 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 3.0 |
| Omari Witherspoon | 30.3 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 2.8 |
| Roman Siulepa | 30.3 | 11.1 | 6.9 | 1.2 |
| Brandin Cummings | 25.3 | 8.8 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Nojus Indrusaitis | 25.1 | 10.4 | 3.1 | 1.8 |
| Macari Moore | 7.3 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Donaldson | 35.4 | 16.7 | 3.6 | 5.0 |
| Shelton Henderson | 34.2 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.9 |
| Ernest Udeh Jr. | 31.3 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 0.7 |
| Malik Reneau | 30.8 | 17.7 | 6.7 | 1.9 |
| Dante Allen | 26.3 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 2.3 |
| Tru Washington | 25.0 | 11.8 | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| Timotej Malovec | 12.8 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Noam Dovrat | 8.2 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
PITT offenseper gameMIA defenseRank among 361 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
PITTForAgainst44% of PITT's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
MIAForAgainst48% of MIA's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
PITT 3series5 MIA| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2025 | PITT 69 | MIA 76 | MIA+7 | +7 |
| Feb 15, 2025 | MIA 65 | PITT 74 | PITT+9 | +9 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024 | PITT 68 | MIA 72 | MIA+4 | +4 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2023 | PITT 76 | MIA 78 | MIA+2 | +2 |
| Jan 28, 2023 | MIA 68 | PITT 71 | PITT+3 | +3 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2022 | MIA 85 | PITT 64 | MIA+21 | +21 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2021 | MIA 79 | PITT 73 | MIA+6 | +6 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2020 | PITT 70 | MIA 55 | PITT+15 | +15 |
From box scores. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | PITT10-20 · last 30 games | MIA22-8 · last 30 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points for (home at home, visitor on the road) | 64.0#330 of 361 | 86.1#28 of 361 | 74.3 |
| Margin per 100 possessions | −4.6#238 of 361 | +12.6#30 of 361 | −0.7 |
| Scoring margin | −2.9#235 of 361 | +8.6#30 of 361 | −0.5 |
| Points allowed per 100 possessions | 113.6#89 of 361 | 105.6#286 of 361 | 109.9 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 361 ranked teams, over each team's last 30 regular-season games (Nov 2025 – Mar 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.