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UConn (29-5 in 2025–26) hosts Providence (15-18 in 2025–26) on Feb 27, 2027.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
PROV offense ranks better in 1 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · CONN defense in 3 (1 by a clear margin)
CONN offense ranks better in 3 of 4 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · PROV defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin)
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 361 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
PROVCONN
Expected pace: about 70 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best.
PROVCONNNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Jaylin Sellers's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefan Vaaks | 33.0 | 17.3 | 2.3 | 3.2 |
| Jaylin Sellers | 32.7 | 22.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 |
| Ryan Mela | 30.5 | 11.8 | 5.9 | 1.8 |
| Jamier Jones | 30.3 | 11.7 | 5.1 | 1.3 |
| Oswin Erhunmwunse | 27.7 | 6.1 | 9.5 | 0.9 |
| Jason Edwards | 24.4 | 14.9 | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| Corey Floyd Jr. | 22.4 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 2.3 |
| Duncan Powell | 14.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 0.5 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Karaban | 34.1 | 11.5 | 5.2 | 2.7 |
| Silas Demary Jr. | 32.3 | 11.8 | 4.9 | 6.3 |
| Solo Ball | 29.1 | 12.8 | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| Braylon Mullins | 28.8 | 12.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 |
| Tarris Reed Jr. | 26.5 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 2.7 |
| Jayden Ross | 17.9 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| Eric Reibe | 13.6 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 0.6 |
| Jaylin Stewart | 12.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
PROV offenseper gameCONN defenseRank among 361 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
PROVForAgainst45% of PROV's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
CONNForAgainst51% of CONN's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
PROV 2series8 CONN| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | PROV 81 | CONN 87 | CONN+6 | +6 |
| Jan 7, 2026 | CONN 103 | PROV 98 | CONN+5 | +5 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2025 | CONN 75 | PROV 63 | CONN+12 | +12 |
| Jan 5, 2025 | PROV 84 | CONN 87 | CONN+3 | +3 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2024 | CONN 74 | PROV 60 | CONN+14 | +14 |
| Jan 31, 2024 | PROV 65 | CONN 74 | CONN+9 | +9 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2023 | PROV 66 | CONN 73 | CONN+7 | +7 |
| Feb 22, 2023 | PROV 69 | CONN 87 | CONN+18 | +18 |
| Jan 4, 2023 | CONN 61 | PROV 73 | PROV+12 | +12 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2021 | PROV 57 | CONN 53 | PROV+4 | +4 |
From box scores. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | PROV13-17 · last 30 games | CONN25-5 · last 30 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half points against | 45.1#7 of 361 | 34.2#351 of 361 | 39.7 |
| Share of points scored in the 1st half | 44.7%#335 of 361 | 49.8%#6 of 361 | 46.8% |
| Possessions per game | 72.6#13 of 361 | 65.3#306 of 361 | 68.0 |
| Points allowed per 100 possessions | 115.0#60 of 361 | 100.3#342 of 361 | 109.9 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 361 ranked teams, over each team's last 30 regular-season games (Nov 2025 – Mar 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.