Michigan vs Michigan State Odds, Stats & Props

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Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.

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What to know

Scoring margin

MICH +17.6 · MSU +10.5

Points scored minus allowed a game, 2025–26. Each team's own average, not a forecast.

Form

MICH 9-1 · MSU 7-3

Each team's record over its last ten games.

Rest

MICH 2d · MSU 2d

Days off before this game, from the schedule.

Offense vs defense: the four factorsHistory

ranks betterranks worseStronger72+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 361 (#1 = best)

MICH offensevsMSU defense

MICH offense ranks better in 3 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · MSU defense in 1

Shooting · effective FG%

58.1%

#9slight

48.6%

#52

Turnovers · per 100 plays

14.6%

#181Stronger

13.3%

#269

Offensive rebounding %

35.4%

#42

22.6%

slight#1

Free throw rate

28.2%

#92slight

23.2%

#103

MSU offensevsMICH defense

MSU offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · MICH defense in 2 (2 by a clear margin)

Shooting · effective FG%

53.6%

#80

44.7%

Stronger#2

Turnovers · per 100 plays

14.5%

#175Stronger

13.6%

#250

Offensive rebounding %

38.5%

#4slight

27.7%

#60

Free throw rate

27.6%

#103

19.7%

Stronger#24

Season box-score numbers; ranks of 361 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.

Key numbers and mismatchesHistory

MICHMSU

+24.8 3rdNet rating21st +15.8

122.4 10thOffensive rating41st 118.5

97.6 8thDefensive rating42nd 102.7

70.9 44thPace256th 66.6

Expected pace: about 69 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best.

Where one side has the better of it

MICH turnovers
MICH offense 14.6% (181st) vs MSU defense allowing 13.3% (269th)
+88 spots
MSU turnovers
MSU offense 14.5% (175th) vs MICH defense allowing 13.6% (250th)
+75 spots
MSU offensive rebounding
MSU offense 38.5% (4th) vs MICH defense allowing 27.7% (60th)
+56 spots
MICH 3-point shooting
MICH offense 36.0% (57th) vs MSU defense allowing 32.9% (111th)
+54 spots
MICH effective shooting
MICH offense 58.1% (9th) vs MSU defense allowing 48.6% (52nd)
+43 spots

ContextHistory

last 10 days

MICH

IOWA

PSU

MSU

2 days rest

MSU

NEB

IU

MICH

2 days rest

homeroadday offthis gameFrom the schedule; travel distance is not tracked.

MICH · last 10

31-3 · 325 days rest

Apr 6 vs CONN2025–26W 69–63
Apr 4 @ ARIZ2025–26W 91–73
Mar 29 vs TENN2025–26W 95–62
Mar 27 vs ALA2025–26W 90–77
Mar 21 vs SLU2025–26W 95–72
Mar 19 vs HOW2025–26W 101–80
Mar 15 vs PUR2025–26L 72–80
Mar 14 vs WIS2025–26W 68–65
Mar 13 vs OSU2025–26W 71–67
Mar 8 vs MSU2025–26W 90–80

9-1 in these

MSU · last 10

25-7 · 335 days rest

Mar 27 @ CONN2025–26L 63–67
Mar 21 vs LOU2025–26W 77–69
Mar 19 vs NDSU2025–26W 92–67
Mar 13 vs UCLA2025–26L 84–88
Mar 8 @ MICH2025–26L 80–90
Mar 5 vs RUTG2025–26W 91–87
Mar 1 @ IU2025–26W 77–64
Feb 26 @ PUR2025–26W 76–74
Feb 22 vs OSU2025–26W 66–60
Feb 17 vs UCLA2025–26W 82–59

7-3 in these

Player props

No lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number

Michigan Wolverines

Michigan State Spartans

Jeremy Fears Jr.

MSU vs MICH

Player page →

Points No line yet

MICH at MSU

Full breakdown

Jeremy Fears Jr.'s full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…

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hit-rate splits and filters
the what-if line and market curve
every book and the line history

MICH rotation · last 15 games

Player	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast
Yaxel Lendeborg	33.9	14.8	6.7	3.3
Elliot Cadeau	28.9	10.1	2.3	6.1
Morez Johnson Jr.	27.2	12.4	7.6	1.1
Aday Mara	23.4	12.5	6.7	2.3
Trey McKenney	23.1	9.1	2.5	0.9
Nimari Burnett	19.1	7.8	2.3	0.9
Roddy Gayle Jr.	18.9	4.4	2.9	0.8
L.J. Cason	18.1	9.9	1.4	2.7

MSU rotation · last 15 games

Player	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast
Jeremy Fears Jr.	33.7	18.9	1.9	9.6
Coen Carr	30.2	11.9	5.7	1.1
Carson Cooper	28.1	11.5	6.9	1.3
Jaxon Kohler	27.3	10.7	7.9	1.4
Jordan Scott	25.2	7.7	2.7	1.3
Kur Teng	18.9	7.8	1.9	0.9
Divine Ugochukwu	18.7	5.5	2.7	2.3
Cam Ward	15.9	4.3	4.3	0.3

Team rankings (2025–26)History

MICH offenseper gameMSU defense

Effective FG%

9th58.1%

48.6%52nd

Turnover %

181st14.6%

13.3%269th

Offensive rebound %

42nd35.4%

22.6%1st

Free throw rate

92nd28.2%

23.2%103rd

Points

8th86.8

68.442nd

Field goal %

6th50.5%

41.0%28th

2-point %

5th61.0%

48.0%43rd

3-point %

57th36.0%

32.9%111th

Free throw %

93rd74.7%

75.1%314th

Rebounds

14th40.0

28.31st

Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.

Scoring by halfHistory

per game, last 17 games · the tick is the league's average team

MICHForAgainst

1st half

39.8

35.4

2nd half

42.6

35.4

Game

82.4

70.8

48% of MICH's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.

MSUForAgainst

1st half

34.0

34.2

2nd half

44.5

38.5

Game

78.5

72.8

43% of MSU's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.

Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.

SeriesHistory

10 meetings

MICH 4series6 MSU

Last 10MMMMMMMMMM

Avg total

145.6

combined points

Avg margin

MSU 3.0

per meeting

Biggest win

MSU +19

Jan 30, 2024

Last meeting

MICH won

Mar 8, 2026

Every meetingHistory

2026MICH 2-0 MSU

Date	Road	Home	Winner	Margin
Mar 8, 2026	MSU 80	MICH 90	MICH+10	+10
Jan 30, 2026	MICH 83	MSU 71	MICH+12	+12

2025MICH 0-2 MSU

Date	Road	Home	Winner	Margin
Mar 9, 2025	MICH 62	MSU 79	MSU+17	+17
Feb 21, 2025	MSU 75	MICH 62	MSU+13	+13

2024MICH 0-2 MSU

Date	Road	Home	Winner	Margin
Feb 17, 2024	MSU 73	MICH 63	MSU+10	+10
Jan 30, 2024	MICH 62	MSU 81	MSU+19	+19

2023MICH 1-1 MSU

Date	Road	Home	Winner	Margin
Feb 18, 2023	MSU 72	MICH 84	MICH+12	+12
Jan 7, 2023	MICH 53	MSU 59	MSU+6	+6

2022MICH 1-1 MSU

Date	Road	Home	Winner	Margin
Mar 1, 2022	MSU 70	MICH 87	MICH+17	+17
Jan 29, 2022	MICH 67	MSU 83	MSU+16	+16

Measure	MICH27-3 · last 30 games	MSU23-7 · last 30 games	League
Possessions per game	70.1#73 of 361	66.5#259 of 361	68.0
Share of points scored in the 1st half	49.8%#7 of 361	46.7%#190 of 361	46.8%
Share of points allowed in the 1st half	48.2%#69 of 361	47.4%#130 of 361	46.9%

Measure	MICH27-3 · last 30 games	MSU23-7 · last 30 games	League
Possessions per game	70.1#73 of 361	66.5#259 of 361	68.0
Share of points scored in the 1st half	49.8%#7 of 361	46.7%#190 of 361	46.8%
Share of points allowed in the 1st half	48.2%#69 of 361	47.4%#130 of 361	46.9%

Michigan vs Michigan State — College Basketball, Feb 26, 2027

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What to know

Offense vs defense: the four factorsHistory