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Penn State (12-20 in 2025–26) hosts Michigan (31-3 in 2025–26) on Feb 23, 2027.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
MICH offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · PSU defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin)
PSU offense ranks better in 1 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · MICH defense in 3 (3 by a clear margin)
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 361 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
MICHPSU
Expected pace: about 69 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best.
MICHPSUNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Yaxel Lendeborg's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg | 33.9 | 14.8 | 6.7 | 3.3 |
| Elliot Cadeau | 28.9 | 10.1 | 2.3 | 6.1 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. | 27.2 | 12.4 | 7.6 | 1.1 |
| Aday Mara | 23.4 | 12.5 | 6.7 | 2.3 |
| Trey McKenney | 23.1 | 9.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| Nimari Burnett | 19.1 | 7.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| Roddy Gayle Jr. | 18.9 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 |
| L.J. Cason | 18.1 | 9.9 | 1.4 | 2.7 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayden Mingo | 34.1 | 12.4 | 3.1 | 4.1 |
| Josh Reed | 32.6 | 14.4 | 4.3 | 1.0 |
| Ivan Juric | 28.2 | 11.5 | 6.4 | 1.2 |
| Freddie Dilione V | 28.1 | 13.9 | 2.9 | 1.7 |
| Dominick Stewart | 25.5 | 6.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Eli Rice | 20.3 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.3 |
| Melih Tunca | 19.2 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Mason Blackwood | 13.1 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.1 |
MICH offenseper gamePSU defenseRank among 361 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
MICHForAgainst48% of MICH's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
PSUForAgainst42% of PSU's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
MICH 6series3 PSU| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | PSU 69 | MICH 110 | MICH+41 | +41 |
| Jan 6, 2026 | MICH 74 | PSU 72 | MICH+2 | +2 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2025 | PSU 72 | MICH 76 | MICH+4 | +4 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2024 | MICH 57 | PSU 66 | PSU+9 | +9 |
| Jan 7, 2024 | MICH 73 | PSU 79 | PSU+6 | +6 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2023 | MICH 61 | PSU 83 | PSU+22 | +22 |
| Jan 4, 2023 | PSU 69 | MICH 79 | MICH+10 | +10 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2022 | MICH 58 | PSU 57 | MICH+1 | +1 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2020 | PSU 58 | MICH 62 | MICH+4 | +4 |
From box scores. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | MICH27-3 · last 30 games | PSU10-20 · last 30 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points allowed per 100 possessions | 98.4#354 of 361 | 120.9#8 of 361 | 109.9 |
| Share of points scored in the 1st half | 49.8%#7 of 361 | 44.4%#346 of 361 | 46.8% |
| Margin per 100 possessions | +25.0#3 of 361 | −11.6#320 of 361 | −0.7 |
| Scoring margin | +17.5#2 of 361 | −7.8#318 of 361 | −0.5 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 361 ranked teams, over each team's last 30 regular-season games (Nov 2025 – Mar 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.