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North Carolina (24-8 in 2025–26) hosts Miami (25-8 in 2025–26) on Feb 22, 2027, 7:00 PM ET.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
MIA offense ranks better in 3 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · UNC defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin)
UNC offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · MIA defense in 2 (2 by a clear margin)
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 361 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
MIAUNC
Expected pace: about 68 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best.
MIAUNCNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Caleb Wilson's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Donaldson | 35.4 | 16.7 | 3.6 | 5.0 |
| Shelton Henderson | 34.2 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.9 |
| Ernest Udeh Jr. | 31.3 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 0.7 |
| Malik Reneau | 30.8 | 17.7 | 6.7 | 1.9 |
| Dante Allen | 26.3 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 2.3 |
| Tru Washington | 25.0 | 11.8 | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| Timotej Malovec | 12.8 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Noam Dovrat | 8.2 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Wilson | 32.3 | 19.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 |
| Seth Trimble | 31.7 | 13.2 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
| Henri Veesaar | 31.2 | 15.8 | 8.2 | 1.9 |
| Derek Dixon | 27.9 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 3.3 |
| Jarin Stevenson | 26.7 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 0.9 |
| Luka Bogavac | 24.0 | 10.0 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| Jonathan Powell | 15.5 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 0.6 |
| Zayden High | 12.6 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 0.6 |
MIA offenseper gameUNC defenseRank among 361 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
MIAForAgainst48% of MIA's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
UNCForAgainst49% of UNC's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
MIA 3series4 UNC| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2026 | UNC 66 | MIA 75 | MIA+9 | +9 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2025 | MIA 73 | UNC 92 | UNC+19 | +19 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2024 | MIA 71 | UNC 75 | UNC+4 | +4 |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UNC 75 | MIA 72 | UNC+3 | +3 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2023 | MIA 80 | UNC 72 | MIA+8 | +8 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2022 | UNC 57 | MIA 85 | MIA+28 | +28 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2021 | UNC 67 | MIA 65 | UNC+2 | +2 |
From box scores. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | MIA22-8 · last 30 games | UNC22-8 · last 30 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half points for | 41.9#72 of 361 | 40.7#129 of 361 | 39.5 |
The 1 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 361 ranked teams, over each team's last 30 regular-season games (Nov 2025 – Mar 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.