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Michigan State (25-7 in 2025–26) hosts Illinois (24-8 in 2025–26) on Feb 5, 2027.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
ILL offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · MSU defense in 2
MSU offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · ILL defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin)
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 361 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
ILLMSU
Expected pace: about 67 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best.
ILLMSUNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Keaton Wagler's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Wagler | 37.1 | 20.0 | 4.4 | 5.1 |
| David Mirkovic | 31.3 | 14.9 | 7.1 | 2.7 |
| Kylan Boswell | 27.4 | 10.1 | 3.6 | 3.0 |
| Tomislav Ivisic | 27.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 |
| Andrej Stojakovic | 26.5 | 12.9 | 4.8 | 1.1 |
| Jake Davis | 25.9 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| Ben Humrichous | 24.5 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 0.9 |
| Zvonimir Ivisic | 18.7 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 0.2 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Fears Jr. | 33.7 | 18.9 | 1.9 | 9.6 |
| Coen Carr | 30.2 | 11.9 | 5.7 | 1.1 |
| Carson Cooper | 28.1 | 11.5 | 6.9 | 1.3 |
| Jaxon Kohler | 27.3 | 10.7 | 7.9 | 1.4 |
| Jordan Scott | 25.2 | 7.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| Kur Teng | 18.9 | 7.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Divine Ugochukwu | 18.7 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 2.3 |
| Cam Ward | 15.9 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 0.3 |
ILL offenseper gameMSU defenseRank among 361 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
ILLForAgainst47% of ILL's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
MSUForAgainst43% of MSU's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
ILL 4series5 MSU| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | ILL 82 | MSU 85 | MSU+3 | +3 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2025 | MSU 79 | ILL 65 | MSU+14 | +14 |
| Jan 19, 2025 | ILL 78 | MSU 80 | MSU+2 | +2 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2024 | ILL 80 | MSU 88 | MSU+8 | +8 |
| Jan 11, 2024 | MSU 68 | ILL 71 | ILL+3 | +3 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2023 | MSU 66 | ILL 75 | ILL+9 | +9 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2022 | ILL 79 | MSU 74 | ILL+5 | +5 |
| Jan 25, 2022 | MSU 55 | ILL 56 | ILL+1 | +1 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2021 | ILL 72 | MSU 81 | MSU+9 | +9 |
From box scores. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | ILL22-8 · last 30 games | MSU23-7 · last 30 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Share of points allowed in the 1st half | 45.1%#320 of 361 | 47.4%#130 of 361 | 46.9% |
| Share of points scored in the 1st half | 49.3%#11 of 361 | 46.7%#190 of 361 | 46.8% |
| Points allowed per 100 possessions | 106.3#273 of 361 | 102.9#323 of 361 | 109.9 |
The 3 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 361 ranked teams, over each team's last 30 regular-season games (Nov 2025 – Mar 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.