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Fairfield (20-13 in 2025–26) hosts Mount St. Mary's (13-17 in 2025–26) on Jan 31, 2027, 2:00 PM ET.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
MSM offense ranks better in 1 of 4 matchups · FAIR defense in 3 (2 by a clear margin)
FAIR offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · MSM defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin)
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 361 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
MSMFAIR
Expected pace: about 67 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best.
MSMFAIRNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Braden Sparks's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Lipscomb | 31.2 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 3.5 |
| Arlandus Keyes | 30.9 | 13.3 | 3.7 | 3.2 |
| Trey Deveaux | 26.7 | 11.1 | 4.1 | 0.9 |
| Luke McEldon | 25.9 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 1.5 |
| Abdou Khadre Kébé | 25.1 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 0.9 |
| Anthony Arrington | 18.9 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| Justin Amadi | 18.0 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 0.3 |
| Mason So | 9.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braden Sparks | 35.3 | 16.9 | 3.1 | 2.8 |
| Declan Wucherpfennig | 32.7 | 12.1 | 9.5 | 1.9 |
| Brandon Benjamin | 31.7 | 15.1 | 10.6 | 1.4 |
| Tony Williams | 24.7 | 7.5 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Halon Rawlins | 19.5 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| Eric Mejia | 19.0 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| Deuce Turner | 18.4 | 7.0 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Isaac Munkadi | 8.7 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 0.0 |
MSM offenseper gameFAIR defenseRank among 361 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
MSMForAgainst46% of MSM's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
FAIRForAgainst47% of FAIR's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
MSM 2series5 FAIR| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | MSM 69 | FAIR 47 | MSM+22 | +22 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2025 | MSM 62 | FAIR 69 | FAIR+7 | +7 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2024 | FAIR 94 | MSM 101 | MSM+7 | +7 |
| Mar 9, 2024 | FAIR 96 | MSM 92 | FAIR+4 | +4 |
| Feb 18, 2024 | MSM 80 | FAIR 94 | FAIR+14 | +14 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2023 | MSM 72 | FAIR 76 | FAIR+4 | +4 |
| Jan 26, 2023 | FAIR 63 | MSM 60 | FAIR+3 | +3 |
From box scores. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | MSM13-17 · last 30 games | FAIR19-11 · last 30 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.7#329 of 361 | 110.8#142 of 361 | 109.2 |
| Share of points allowed in the 1st half | 48.2%#70 of 361 | 46.6%#207 of 361 | 46.9% |
| 2nd half points for | 35.7#328 of 361 | 38.9#209 of 361 | 39.5 |
| Margin per 100 possessions | −5.2#249 of 361 | +2.2#133 of 361 | −0.7 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 361 ranked teams, over each team's last 30 regular-season games (Nov 2025 – Mar 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.