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Louisville (23-10 in 2025–26) hosts Miami (25-8 in 2025–26) on Jan 19, 2027.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
MIA offense ranks better in 3 of 4 matchups · LOU defense in 1
LOU offense ranks better in 1 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · MIA defense in 3 (3 by a clear margin)
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 361 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
MIALOU
Expected pace: about 69 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best.
MIALOUNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Mikel Brown Jr.'s full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Donaldson | 35.4 | 16.7 | 3.6 | 5.0 |
| Shelton Henderson | 34.2 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.9 |
| Ernest Udeh Jr. | 31.3 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 0.7 |
| Malik Reneau | 30.8 | 17.7 | 6.7 | 1.9 |
| Dante Allen | 26.3 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 2.3 |
| Tru Washington | 25.0 | 11.8 | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| Timotej Malovec | 12.8 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Noam Dovrat | 8.2 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Conwell | 32.2 | 17.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 |
| Mikel Brown Jr. | 31.1 | 19.6 | 3.6 | 4.4 |
| J'Vonne Hadley | 28.3 | 13.3 | 4.9 | 1.4 |
| Isaac McKneely | 27.5 | 9.0 | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| Sananda Fru | 20.7 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 1.3 |
| Adrian Wooley | 20.4 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.7 |
| Khani Rooths | 15.5 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 0.7 |
| Aly Khalifa | 11.3 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 2.2 |
MIA offenseper gameLOU defenseRank among 361 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
MIAForAgainst48% of MIA's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
LOUForAgainst48% of LOU's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
MIA 5series3 LOU| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | LOU 73 | MIA 78 | MIA+5 | +5 |
| Mar 7, 2026 | LOU 92 | MIA 89 | LOU+3 | +3 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025 | MIA 78 | LOU 88 | LOU+10 | +10 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2024 | LOU 80 | MIA 71 | LOU+9 | +9 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2023 | LOU 85 | MIA 93 | MIA+8 | +8 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2022 | MIA 80 | LOU 53 | MIA+27 | +27 |
| Feb 16, 2022 | MIA 70 | LOU 63 | MIA+7 | +7 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2021 | LOU 72 | MIA 78 | MIA+6 | +6 |
From box scores. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | MIA22-8 · last 30 games | LOU20-10 · last 30 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Share of points allowed in the 1st half | 49.3%#21 of 361 | 45.8%#268 of 361 | 46.9% |
| Possessions per game | 68.1#181 of 361 | 69.5#94 of 361 | 68.0 |
| Points for (home at home, visitor on the road) | 77.5#70 of 361 | 88.5#16 of 361 | 74.3 |
The 3 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 361 ranked teams, over each team's last 30 regular-season games (Nov 2025 – Mar 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.