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North Carolina (24-8 in 2025–26) hosts Boston College (11-20 in 2025–26) on Jan 17, 2027.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
BC offense ranks better in 1 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · UNC defense in 3 (3 by a clear margin)
UNC offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · BC defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin)
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 361 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
BCUNC
Expected pace: about 67 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best.
BCUNCNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Caleb Wilson's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Payne | 35.9 | 18.0 | 4.7 | 2.6 |
| Boden Kapke | 30.2 | 12.4 | 5.9 | 0.8 |
| Donald Hand Jr. | 26.3 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| Jayden Hastings | 24.9 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 0.7 |
| Luka Toews | 24.5 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| Chase Forte | 24.2 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 3.1 |
| Aidan Shaw | 23.7 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 0.4 |
| Caleb Steger | 12.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Wilson | 32.3 | 19.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 |
| Seth Trimble | 31.7 | 13.2 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
| Henri Veesaar | 31.2 | 15.8 | 8.2 | 1.9 |
| Derek Dixon | 27.9 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 3.3 |
| Jarin Stevenson | 26.7 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 0.9 |
| Luka Bogavac | 24.0 | 10.0 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| Jonathan Powell | 15.5 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 0.6 |
| Zayden High | 12.6 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 0.6 |
BC offenseper gameUNC defenseRank among 361 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
BCForAgainst46% of BC's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
UNCForAgainst49% of UNC's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
BC 0series6 UNC| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2025 | BC 96 | UNC 102 | UNC+6 | +6 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2024 | UNC 76 | BC 66 | UNC+10 | +10 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2023 | BC 61 | UNC 85 | UNC+24 | +24 |
| Jan 17, 2023 | BC 64 | UNC 72 | UNC+8 | +8 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2022 | BC 47 | UNC 58 | UNC+11 | +11 |
| Jan 2, 2022 | UNC 91 | BC 65 | UNC+26 | +26 |
From box scores. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | BC11-19 · last 30 games | UNC22-8 · last 30 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scoring margin (home at home, visitor on the road) | −12.9#314 of 361 | +15.9#22 of 361 | −0.5 |
| Points for (home at home, visitor on the road) | 61.3#351 of 361 | 82.7#71 of 361 | 74.3 |
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.1#325 of 361 | 116.5#53 of 361 | 109.2 |
| Margin per 100 possessions | −4.8#244 of 361 | +10.7#44 of 361 | −0.7 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 361 ranked teams, over each team's last 30 regular-season games (Nov 2025 – Mar 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.