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Florida State (18-15 in 2025–26) hosts North Carolina (24-8 in 2025–26) on Jan 13, 2027.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
UNC offense ranks better in 3 of 4 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · FSU defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin)
FSU offense ranks better in 1 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · UNC defense in 3 (3 by a clear margin)
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 361 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
UNCFSU
Expected pace: about 70 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best.
UNCFSUNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Caleb Wilson's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Wilson | 32.3 | 19.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 |
| Seth Trimble | 31.7 | 13.2 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
| Henri Veesaar | 31.2 | 15.8 | 8.2 | 1.9 |
| Derek Dixon | 27.9 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 3.3 |
| Jarin Stevenson | 26.7 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 0.9 |
| Luka Bogavac | 24.0 | 10.0 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| Jonathan Powell | 15.5 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 0.6 |
| Zayden High | 12.6 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 0.6 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lajae Jones | 32.9 | 14.7 | 6.7 | 1.3 |
| Robert McCray V | 30.0 | 19.6 | 3.9 | 5.5 |
| Chauncey Wiggins | 29.1 | 14.6 | 3.5 | 0.8 |
| Martin Somerville | 26.7 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 3.3 |
| Thomas Bassong | 24.1 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 0.5 |
| Alex Steen | 22.6 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 1.1 |
| AJ Swinton | 18.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| Kobe MaGee | 14.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.3 |
UNC offenseper gameFSU defenseRank among 361 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
UNCForAgainst49% of UNC's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
FSUForAgainst49% of FSU's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
UNC 8series2 FSU| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2025 | FSU 66 | UNC 79 | UNC+13 | +13 |
| Feb 24, 2025 | UNC 96 | FSU 85 | UNC+11 | +11 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2024 | FSU 67 | UNC 92 | UNC+25 | +25 |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UNC 75 | FSU 68 | UNC+7 | +7 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2023 | FSU 70 | UNC 78 | UNC+8 | +8 |
| Feb 27, 2023 | UNC 77 | FSU 66 | UNC+11 | +11 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2022 | FSU 74 | UNC 94 | UNC+20 | +20 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2021 | UNC 66 | FSU 69 | FSU+3 | +3 |
| Feb 27, 2021 | FSU 70 | UNC 78 | UNC+8 | +8 |
| Jan 16, 2021 | UNC 75 | FSU 82 | FSU+7 | +7 |
From box scores. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | UNC22-8 · last 30 games | FSU16-14 · last 30 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half points against | 36.2#328 of 361 | 41.8#79 of 361 | 39.7 |
| Possessions per game | 67.8#195 of 361 | 70.5#55 of 361 | 68.0 |
| Points allowed per 100 possessions | 105.8#282 of 361 | 111.4#151 of 361 | 109.9 |
| Scoring margin | +7.3#46 of 361 | +0.4#158 of 361 | −0.5 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 361 ranked teams, over each team's last 30 regular-season games (Nov 2025 – Mar 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.