TCU vs Cincinnati — College Basketball, Jan 12, 2027

Cincinnati (18-15 in 2025–26) hosts TCU (21-11 in 2025–26) on Jan 12, 2027.

Tue, Jan 12 · Time TBDFifth Third Arena · Cincinnati, OHConference game

TCU Horned Frogs

2025–26: 21-11 · 6-6 on the road

Cincinnati Bearcats

2025–26: 18-15 · 16-4 at home

Lines post the day of the game.

OverviewPropsStatsHead to head

Market◇Market

Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.

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Model's read

The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.

Winner

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What to knowiThree takeaways from the data below: the biggest mismatch, injuries or form, and the game setup.

Scoring margin

TCU +5.2 · CIN +5.5

Points scored minus allowed a game, 2025–26. Each team's own average, not a forecast.

Form

TCU 7-3 · CIN 7-3

Each team's record over its last ten games.

Rest

TCU 2d · CIN 2d

Days off before this game, from the schedule.

Offense vs defense: the four factorsiEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces in shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws; longer = better.◷History

ranks betterranks worseStronger72+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 361 (#1 = best)

TCU offensevsCIN defense

TCU offense ranks better in 1 of 4 matchups · CIN defense in 3 (1 by a clear margin)

Shooting · effective FG%?Field-goal percentage with threes counted at 1.5; the defense's number is what it allows.

50.5%

#213

47.3%

Stronger#27

Turnovers · per 100 plays?Turnovers the offense commits (fewer is better) and the turnovers the defense forces.

13.3%

#77slight

16.1%

#81

Offensive rebounding %?Share of its own misses the offense rebounds; the defense's number is what it allows.

34.1%

#65

27.3%

slight#52

Free throw rate?Free throws made per field-goal attempt; the defense's number is what it allows.

27.1%

#121

21.3%

slight#55

CIN offensevsTCU defense

CIN offense ranks better in 0 of 4 matchups · TCU defense in 4 (2 by a clear margin)

Shooting · effective FG%?Field-goal percentage with threes counted at 1.5; the defense's number is what it allows.

50.5%

#215

51.2%

slight#173

Turnovers · per 100 plays?Turnovers the offense commits (fewer is better) and the turnovers the defense forces.

14.7%

#195

17.3%

Stronger#25

Offensive rebounding %?Share of its own misses the offense rebounds; the defense's number is what it allows.

30.6%

#177

29.7%

slight#147

Free throw rate?Free throws made per field-goal attempt; the defense's number is what it allows.

20.0%

#336

22.3%

Stronger#79

Season box-score numbers; ranks of 361 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.

Key numbers and mismatchesiHeadline ratings, then the biggest mismatches between one team's offense and the other's defense.◷History

TCUCIN

+7.4 75thNet rating?Points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions70th +8.1

111.5 127thOffensive rating?Points scored per 100 possessions244th 106.3

104.1 60thDefensive rating?Points allowed per 100 possessions (rank 1 = allows least)11th 98.2

69.5 102ndPace?Possessions per game (rank 1 = fastest)141st 68.8

Expected pace: about 69 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best.

Where one side has the better of it

No pairing is lopsided: each unit meets one ranked within a few spots of it.

ContextiEach team's last ten days going into this game (filled = home, outline = road; travel distance is not tracked)◷History

last 10 days

SMTWTFSSMGame

TCU

ASU

TTU

CIN

2 days rest

SMTWTFSSMGame

CIN

BYU

UTAH

TCU

2 days rest

homeroadday offthis gameFrom the schedule; travel distance is not tracked.

TCU · last 10

21-11 · 296 days rest

• Mar 21 @ DUKE2025–26L 58–81
• Mar 19 @ OSU2025–26W 66–64
• Mar 12 @ KU2025–26L 73–78
• Mar 11 vs OKST2025–26W 95–88
• Mar 7 vs CIN2025–26W 73–63
• Mar 3 @ TTU2025–26W 73–65
• Feb 28 @ KSU2025–26W 77–68
• Feb 24 vs ASU2025–26W 90–78
• Feb 21 vs WVU2025–26W 60–54
• Feb 17 @ UCF2025–26L 71–82

7-3 in these

CIN · last 10

18-15 · 306 days rest

• Mar 11 @ UCF2025–26L 65–66
• Mar 10 vs UTAH2025–26W 73–66
• Mar 7 @ TCU2025–26L 63–73
• Mar 3 vs BYU2025–26W 90–68
• Feb 28 vs OKST2025–26W 91–68
• Feb 24 @ TTU2025–26L 68–80
• Feb 21 @ KU2025–26W 84–68
• Feb 15 vs UTAH2025–26W 69–65
• Feb 11 @ KSU2025–26W 91–62
• Feb 8 vs UCF2025–26W 92–72

7-3 in these

From box scores. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.