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Saint Mary's (26-5 in 2025–26) hosts San Diego (10-21 in 2025–26) on Jan 2, 2027.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
USD offense ranks better in 1 of 4 matchups · SMC defense in 3 (3 by a clear margin)
SMC offense ranks better in 3 of 4 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · USD defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin)
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 361 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
USDSMC
Expected pace: about 67 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best.
USDSMCNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Paulius Murauskas's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toneari Lane | 29.5 | 12.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| Ty-Laur Johnson | 27.1 | 14.5 | 3.0 | 4.9 |
| Adrian McIntyre | 25.6 | 9.9 | 3.7 | 3.4 |
| Juanse Gorosito | 23.8 | 9.8 | 2.9 | 2.2 |
| Assane Diop | 23.0 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 1.2 |
| Gavin Ripp | 22.1 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 2.0 |
| Dominique Ford | 20.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| Vuk Boskovic | 17.7 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dent | 37.7 | 13.7 | 2.2 | 6.3 |
| Paulius Murauskas | 32.8 | 18.3 | 7.7 | 2.1 |
| Dillan Shaw | 32.7 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 1.8 |
| Mikey Lewis | 27.0 | 15.4 | 2.5 | 1.8 |
| Andrew McKeever | 22.0 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 1.9 |
| Harry Wessels | 17.8 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 0.8 |
| Liam Campbell | 12.1 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| Rory Hawke | 9.0 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
USD offenseper gameSMC defenseRank among 361 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
USDForAgainst44% of USD's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
SMCForAgainst49% of SMC's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
USD 0series8 SMC| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | USD 60 | SMC 87 | SMC+27 | +27 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2025 | SMC 103 | USD 56 | SMC+47 | +47 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2024 | USD 62 | SMC 88 | SMC+26 | +26 |
| Jan 4, 2024 | SMC 81 | USD 70 | SMC+11 | +11 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2023 | SMC 62 | USD 59 | SMC+3 | +3 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2022 | USD 58 | SMC 85 | SMC+27 | +27 |
| Feb 24, 2022 | SMC 60 | USD 46 | SMC+14 | +14 |
| Feb 10, 2022 | USD 57 | SMC 86 | SMC+29 | +29 |
From box scores. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | USD10-20 · last 30 games | SMC25-5 · last 30 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half points against | 44.1#16 of 361 | 34.2#351 of 361 | 39.7 |
| Scoring margin (home at home, visitor on the road) | −13.2#316 of 361 | +19.8#10 of 361 | −0.5 |
| Margin per 100 possessions | −8.9#291 of 361 | +18.0#11 of 361 | −0.7 |
| Points allowed per 100 possessions | 114.3#77 of 361 | 99.6#349 of 361 | 109.9 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 361 ranked teams, over each team's last 30 regular-season games (Nov 2025 – Mar 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.