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Boston College (11-20 in 2025–26) hosts Louisville (23-10 in 2025–26) on Dec 31, 2026.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
LOU offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · BC defense in 2
BC offense ranks better in 1 of 4 matchups · LOU defense in 3 (3 by a clear margin)
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 361 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
LOUBC
Expected pace: about 69 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best.
LOUBCNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Mikel Brown Jr.'s full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Conwell | 32.2 | 17.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 |
| Mikel Brown Jr. | 31.1 | 19.6 | 3.6 | 4.4 |
| J'Vonne Hadley | 28.3 | 13.3 | 4.9 | 1.4 |
| Isaac McKneely | 27.5 | 9.0 | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| Sananda Fru | 20.7 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 1.3 |
| Adrian Wooley | 20.4 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.7 |
| Khani Rooths | 15.5 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 0.7 |
| Aly Khalifa | 11.3 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Payne | 35.9 | 18.0 | 4.7 | 2.6 |
| Boden Kapke | 30.2 | 12.4 | 5.9 | 0.8 |
| Donald Hand Jr. | 26.3 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| Jayden Hastings | 24.9 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 0.7 |
| Luka Toews | 24.5 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| Chase Forte | 24.2 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 3.1 |
| Aidan Shaw | 23.7 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 0.4 |
| Caleb Steger | 12.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
LOU offenseper gameBC defenseRank among 361 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
LOUForAgainst48% of LOU's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
BCForAgainst46% of BC's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
LOU 4series4 BC| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | BC 62 | LOU 75 | LOU+13 | +13 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2025 | LOU 84 | BC 58 | LOU+26 | +26 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2024 | BC 67 | LOU 61 | BC+6 | +6 |
| Feb 13, 2024 | LOU 77 | BC 89 | BC+12 | +12 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2023 | LOU 62 | BC 80 | BC+18 | +18 |
| Jan 25, 2023 | LOU 65 | BC 75 | BC+10 | +10 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2022 | BC 54 | LOU 67 | LOU+13 | +13 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2021 | LOU 76 | BC 64 | LOU+12 | +12 |
From box scores. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | LOU20-10 · last 30 games | BC11-19 · last 30 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st half points for | 40.0#19 of 361 | 30.7#324 of 361 | 34.8 |
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 119.4#25 of 361 | 101.1#325 of 361 | 109.2 |
| Margin per 100 possessions | +15.0#19 of 361 | −4.8#244 of 361 | −0.7 |
| Scoring margin | +10.4#18 of 361 | −3.2#241 of 361 | −0.5 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 361 ranked teams, over each team's last 30 regular-season games (Nov 2025 – Mar 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.