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Michigan (31-3 in 2025–26) hosts Toledo (17-15 in 2025–26) on Dec 30, 2026.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
TOL offense ranks better in 1 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · MICH defense in 3 (2 by a clear margin)
MICH offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · TOL defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin)
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 361 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
TOLMICH
Expected pace: about 70 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best.
TOLMICHNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Leroy Blyden Jr.'s full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Wilson | 37.0 | 16.5 | 3.7 | 4.5 |
| Leroy Blyden Jr. | 34.7 | 17.0 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| Sean Craig | 31.6 | 10.1 | 6.4 | 1.4 |
| Austin Parks | 27.1 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 2.1 |
| Mynor Strong | 23.7 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| Jaylan Ouwinga | 18.5 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 0.6 |
| Kyler Vanderjagt | 16.0 | 4.9 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Will James Jr. | 10.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg | 33.9 | 14.8 | 6.7 | 3.3 |
| Elliot Cadeau | 28.9 | 10.1 | 2.3 | 6.1 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. | 27.2 | 12.4 | 7.6 | 1.1 |
| Aday Mara | 23.4 | 12.5 | 6.7 | 2.3 |
| Trey McKenney | 23.1 | 9.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| Nimari Burnett | 19.1 | 7.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| Roddy Gayle Jr. | 18.9 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 |
| L.J. Cason | 18.1 | 9.9 | 1.4 | 2.7 |
TOL offenseper gameMICH defenseRank among 361 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
TOLForAgainst50% of TOL's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
MICHForAgainst48% of MICH's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
TOL 0series2 MICH| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2023 | TOL 80 | MICH 90 | MICH+10 | +10 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2020 | TOL 71 | MICH 91 | MICH+20 | +20 |
From box scores. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | TOL17-13 · last 30 games | MICH27-3 · last 30 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points allowed per 100 possessions | 112.0#137 of 361 | 98.4#354 of 361 | 109.9 |
| Points against | 77.2#116 of 361 | 68.9#317 of 361 | 74.8 |
| Scoring margin | +3.0#102 of 361 | +17.5#2 of 361 | −0.5 |
| Margin per 100 possessions | +4.3#102 of 361 | +25.0#3 of 361 | −0.7 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 361 ranked teams, over each team's last 30 regular-season games (Nov 2025 – Mar 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.