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Michigan State (25-7 in 2025–26) hosts Pennsylvania (17-11 in 2025–26) on Dec 29, 2026.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
PENN offense ranks better in 1 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · MSU defense in 3 (3 by a clear margin)
MSU offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · PENN defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin)
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 361 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
PENNMSU
Expected pace: about 68 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best.
PENNMSUNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Jeremy Fears Jr.'s full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Power | 36.7 | 18.9 | 7.9 | 2.1 |
| Ethan Roberts | 31.1 | 16.0 | 4.0 | 2.2 |
| Michael Zanoni | 30.9 | 10.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| AJ Levine | 27.7 | 10.4 | 4.4 | 3.9 |
| Augustus Gerhart | 19.5 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 |
| Jay Jones | 16.4 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| Lucas Lueth | 16.0 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 0.5 |
| Cam Thrower | 13.3 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Fears Jr. | 33.7 | 18.9 | 1.9 | 9.6 |
| Coen Carr | 30.2 | 11.9 | 5.7 | 1.1 |
| Carson Cooper | 28.1 | 11.5 | 6.9 | 1.3 |
| Jaxon Kohler | 27.3 | 10.7 | 7.9 | 1.4 |
| Jordan Scott | 25.2 | 7.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| Kur Teng | 18.9 | 7.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Divine Ugochukwu | 18.7 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 2.3 |
| Cam Ward | 15.9 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 0.3 |
PENN offenseper gameMSU defenseRank among 361 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
PENNForAgainst47% of PENN's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
MSUForAgainst43% of MSU's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
No meetings yet on record between these two teams.
From box scores. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | PENN18-12 · last 30 games | MSU23-7 · last 30 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st half points against | 36.1#116 of 361 | 32.5#298 of 361 | 35.0 |
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 108.9#182 of 361 | 119.1#29 of 361 | 109.2 |
| 2nd half points for | 38.9#207 of 361 | 42.2#64 of 361 | 39.5 |
| Margin per 100 possessions | +0.7#154 of 361 | +16.2#14 of 361 | −0.7 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 361 ranked teams, over each team's last 30 regular-season games (Mar 2025 – Mar 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.