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Arkansas State (18-12 in 2025–26) hosts South Alabama (19-11 in 2025–26) on Dec 16, 2026.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
USA offense ranks better in 3 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · ARST defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin)
ARST offense ranks better in 1 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · USA defense in 3 (1 by a clear margin)
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 361 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
USAARST
Expected pace: about 70 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best.
USAARSTNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Chaze Harris's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Olsen | 37.3 | 16.9 | 4.9 | 0.9 |
| Chaze Harris | 33.1 | 21.1 | 4.5 | 5.1 |
| Jayden Cooper | 32.8 | 13.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| Hantz Louis-Jeune | 26.3 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 0.7 |
| Randy Brady | 26.2 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.0 |
| John Broom | 18.1 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 0.3 |
| JJ Wheat | 15.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Stephen Williams | 14.7 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 0.2 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Harmon | 29.8 | 15.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| Jalen Hampton | 28.2 | 9.2 | 10.6 | 1.5 |
| Chandler Jackson | 27.7 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 5.0 |
| Matt Hayman | 23.2 | 11.5 | 3.1 | 2.2 |
| Aly Tounkara | 23.2 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 0.5 |
| Jaxon Ellingsworth | 20.2 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 0.5 |
| TJ Caldwell | 19.1 | 9.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| Joey Chammaa | 15.9 | 8.6 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
USA offenseper gameARST defenseRank among 361 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
USAForAgainst45% of USA's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
ARSTForAgainst48% of ARST's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
USA 7series3 ARST| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | USA 92 | ARST 88 | USA+4 | +4 |
| Jan 15, 2026 | ARST 87 | USA 91 | USA+4 | +4 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2025 | ARST 74 | USA 71 | ARST+3 | +3 |
| Feb 19, 2025 | USA 60 | ARST 56 | USA+4 | +4 |
| Jan 9, 2025 | ARST 62 | USA 76 | USA+14 | +14 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2024 | USA 78 | ARST 95 | ARST+17 | +17 |
| Feb 17, 2024 | ARST 76 | USA 73 | ARST+3 | +3 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2023 | USA 82 | ARST 62 | USA+20 | +20 |
| Jan 5, 2023 | ARST 45 | USA 63 | USA+18 | +18 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2022 | ARST 51 | USA 70 | USA+19 | +19 |
From box scores. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | USA19-11 · last 30 games | ARST18-12 · last 30 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Possessions per game | 66.5#260 of 361 | 72.6#14 of 361 | 68.0 |
| 1st half points for | 32.8#261 of 361 | 38.5#44 of 361 | 34.8 |
| Points against | 71.1#279 of 361 | 78.0#94 of 361 | 74.8 |
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 110.4#148 of 361 | 112.6#103 of 361 | 109.2 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 361 ranked teams, over each team's last 30 regular-season games (Nov 2025 – Mar 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.