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Texas (17-14 in 2025–26) and Miami (25-8 in 2025–26) meet at a neutral site on Dec 12, 2026.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
MIA offense ranks better in 4 of 4 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · TEX defense in 0
TEX offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · MIA defense in 2
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 361 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
MIATEX
Expected pace: about 68 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best.
MIATEXNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Dailyn Swain's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Donaldson | 35.4 | 16.7 | 3.6 | 5.0 |
| Shelton Henderson | 34.2 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.9 |
| Ernest Udeh Jr. | 31.3 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 0.7 |
| Malik Reneau | 30.8 | 17.7 | 6.7 | 1.9 |
| Dante Allen | 26.3 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 2.3 |
| Tru Washington | 25.0 | 11.8 | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| Timotej Malovec | 12.8 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Noam Dovrat | 8.2 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dailyn Swain | 35.9 | 20.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 |
| Jordan Pope | 29.5 | 13.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| Tramon Mark | 28.5 | 13.6 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| Matas Vokietaitis | 28.1 | 15.8 | 7.5 | 1.0 |
| Camden Heide | 25.1 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.4 |
| Chendall Weaver | 20.3 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| Simeon Wilcher | 18.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Nic Codie | 16.8 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 |
MIA offenseper gameTEX defenseRank among 361 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
MIAForAgainst48% of MIA's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
TEXForAgainst45% of TEX's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
MIA 1series0 TEX| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2023 | MIA 88 | TEX 81 | MIA+7 | +7 |
From box scores. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | MIA22-8 · last 30 games | TEX17-13 · last 30 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Share of points scored in the 1st half | 48.0%#78 of 361 | 45.4%#301 of 361 | 46.8% |
| 2nd half points against | 36.5#322 of 361 | 40.9#120 of 361 | 39.7 |
| Points allowed per 100 possessions | 105.6#286 of 361 | 112.4#123 of 361 | 109.9 |
The 3 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 361 ranked teams, over each team's last 30 regular-season games (Nov 2025 – Mar 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.