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Michigan (31-3 in 2025–26) hosts Northwestern (15-19 in 2025–26) on Dec 12, 2026.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
NU offense ranks better in 1 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · MICH defense in 3 (3 by a clear margin)
MICH offense ranks better in 3 of 4 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · NU defense in 1
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 361 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
NUMICH
Expected pace: about 68 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best.
NUMICHNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Nick Martinelli's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Martinelli | 37.1 | 22.3 | 5.5 | 2.3 |
| Jake West | 31.6 | 8.1 | 1.1 | 4.0 |
| Tre Singleton | 26.4 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 1.4 |
| Jayden Reid | 25.3 | 8.4 | 0.9 | 4.5 |
| Angelo Ciaravino | 22.3 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 0.9 |
| Arrinten Page | 19.0 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| Jordan Clayton | 18.2 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Max Green | 17.0 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg | 33.9 | 14.8 | 6.7 | 3.3 |
| Elliot Cadeau | 28.9 | 10.1 | 2.3 | 6.1 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. | 27.2 | 12.4 | 7.6 | 1.1 |
| Aday Mara | 23.4 | 12.5 | 6.7 | 2.3 |
| Trey McKenney | 23.1 | 9.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| Nimari Burnett | 19.1 | 7.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| Roddy Gayle Jr. | 18.9 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 |
| L.J. Cason | 18.1 | 9.9 | 1.4 | 2.7 |
NU offenseper gameMICH defenseRank among 361 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
NUForAgainst47% of NU's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
MICHForAgainst48% of MICH's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
NU 1series6 MICH| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2026 | MICH 87 | NU 75 | MICH+12 | +12 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2025 | NU 76 | MICH 80 | MICH+4 | +4 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2024 | MICH 62 | NU 76 | NU+14 | +14 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2023 | MICH 68 | NU 51 | MICH+17 | +17 |
| Jan 15, 2023 | NU 78 | MICH 85 | MICH+7 | +7 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2022 | NU 70 | MICH 72 | MICH+2 | +2 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2021 | NU 66 | MICH 85 | MICH+19 | +19 |
From box scores. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | NU11-19 · last 30 games | MICH27-3 · last 30 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points for (home at home, visitor on the road) | 65.3#314 of 361 | 91.2#7 of 361 | 74.3 |
| Points allowed per 100 possessions | 113.8#85 of 361 | 98.4#354 of 361 | 109.9 |
| Scoring margin (home at home, visitor on the road) | −8.7#259 of 361 | +23.8#3 of 361 | −0.5 |
| Possessions per game | 64.6#329 of 361 | 70.1#73 of 361 | 68.0 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 361 ranked teams, over each team's last 30 regular-season games (Nov 2025 – Mar 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.