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Tennessee (22-11 in 2025–26) and NC State (20-13 in 2025–26) meet at a neutral site on Dec 6, 2026.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
NCSU offense ranks better in 3 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · TENN defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin)
TENN offense ranks better in 3 of 4 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · NCSU defense in 1
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 361 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
NCSUTENN
Expected pace: about 68 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best.
NCSUTENNNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Nate Ament's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quadir Copeland | 31.4 | 14.1 | 3.7 | 7.3 |
| Paul McNeil Jr. | 30.6 | 13.9 | 2.9 | 0.7 |
| Darrion Williams | 30.5 | 13.3 | 3.6 | 2.2 |
| Ven-Allen Lubin | 30.0 | 15.3 | 7.7 | 0.6 |
| Tre Holloman | 26.7 | 8.5 | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| Matt Able | 23.5 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.8 |
| Terrance Arceneaux | 17.0 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 0.4 |
| Musa Sagnia | 9.6 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Kobi Gillespie | 36.1 | 17.3 | 2.7 | 5.3 |
| Nate Ament | 32.8 | 20.4 | 7.0 | 2.5 |
| Bishop Boswell | 28.8 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 3.3 |
| Felix Okpara | 28.1 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 0.5 |
| J.P. Estrella | 23.3 | 11.7 | 6.3 | 0.9 |
| Jaylen Carey | 19.1 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 1.1 |
| Amari Evans | 17.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 0.6 |
| DeWayne Brown II | 15.7 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 |
NCSU offenseper gameTENN defenseRank among 361 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
NCSUForAgainst46% of NCSU's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
TENNForAgainst47% of TENN's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
NCSU 0series1 TENN| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2023 | NCSU 70 | TENN 79 | TENN+9 | +9 |
From box scores. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | NCSU17-13 · last 30 games | TENN19-11 · last 30 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points against (home at home, visitor on the road) | 83.6#52 of 361 | 67.7#283 of 361 | 74.8 |
| Points allowed per 100 possessions | 111.9#139 of 361 | 105.0#295 of 361 | 109.9 |
| Possessions per game | 69.2#104 of 361 | 66.9#239 of 361 | 68.0 |
| Scoring margin (home at home, visitor on the road) | −0.2#79 of 361 | +17.0#15 of 361 | −0.5 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 361 ranked teams, over each team's last 30 regular-season games (Nov 2025 – Mar 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.