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Cal State Bakersfield (6-24 in 2025–26) hosts UC Santa Barbara (16-14 in 2025–26) on Dec 3, 2026, 9:30 PM ET.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
UCSB offense ranks better in 3 of 4 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · CSUB defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin)
CSUB offense ranks better in 1 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · UCSB defense in 3 (3 by a clear margin)
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 361 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
UCSBCSUB
Expected pace: about 70 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best.
UCSBCSUBNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Dailin Smith's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Mahaney | 35.3 | 15.7 | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| CJ Shaw | 32.6 | 13.3 | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| Colin Smith | 31.7 | 12.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 |
| Miro Little | 30.7 | 11.1 | 6.9 | 5.4 |
| Zion Sensley | 26.4 | 11.5 | 7.9 | 0.7 |
| Hosana Kitenge | 22.0 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 |
| Marvin McGhee IV | 21.8 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 1.1 |
| Evans Kipruto | 8.2 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 0.1 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dailin Smith | 30.9 | 17.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| CJ Hardy | 28.8 | 8.8 | 2.5 | 3.5 |
| Ronald Jessamy | 27.2 | 15.1 | 7.0 | 1.4 |
| AJ George | 26.5 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| Kadar Waller | 26.1 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 4.1 |
| Jaden Alexander | 25.3 | 17.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 |
| Tom Mark | 25.3 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 0.9 |
| Mike Price | 20.2 | 8.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
UCSB offenseper gameCSUB defenseRank among 361 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
UCSBForAgainst48% of UCSB's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
CSUBForAgainst45% of CSUB's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
UCSB 10series0 CSUB| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | UCSB 75 | CSUB 69 | UCSB+6 | +6 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | CSUB 84 | UCSB 109 | UCSB+25 | +25 |
| Mar 12, 2025 | CSUB 66 | UCSB 71 | UCSB+5 | +5 |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UCSB 81 | CSUB 75 | UCSB+6 | +6 |
| Jan 9, 2025 | CSUB 66 | UCSB 78 | UCSB+12 | +12 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2024 | UCSB 70 | CSUB 59 | UCSB+11 | +11 |
| Jan 11, 2024 | CSUB 64 | UCSB 66 | UCSB+2 | +2 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2023 | CSUB 58 | UCSB 76 | UCSB+18 | +18 |
| Jan 11, 2023 | UCSB 60 | CSUB 48 | UCSB+12 | +12 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2022 | UCSB 74 | CSUB 62 | UCSB+12 | +12 |
From box scores. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | UCSB16-14 · last 30 games | CSUB6-24 · last 30 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Share of points allowed in the 1st half | 44.5%#344 of 361 | 48.2%#71 of 361 | 46.9% |
| Scoring margin | +3.0#102 of 361 | −11.4#346 of 361 | −0.5 |
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 113.7#88 of 361 | 100.3#332 of 361 | 109.2 |
| Margin per 100 possessions | +4.4#101 of 361 | −15.9#343 of 361 | −0.7 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 361 ranked teams, over each team's last 30 regular-season games (Nov 2025 – Mar 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.