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North Carolina (24-8 in 2025–26) hosts Arkansas (25-8 in 2025–26) on Dec 1, 2026, 7:30 PM ET.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
ARK offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · UNC defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin)
UNC offense ranks better in 3 of 4 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · ARK defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin)
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 361 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
ARKUNC
Expected pace: about 70 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best.
ARKUNCNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Darius Acuff Jr.'s full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Acuff Jr. | 37.9 | 27.4 | 3.4 | 7.0 |
| Trevon Brazile | 35.7 | 13.5 | 8.1 | 1.9 |
| Meleek Thomas | 33.8 | 15.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 |
| Billy Richmond III | 33.7 | 14.7 | 4.5 | 2.4 |
| Malique Ewin | 22.7 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 0.8 |
| D.J. Wagner | 22.2 | 7.1 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Karter Knox | 18.0 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| Nick Pringle | 17.5 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 0.4 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Wilson | 32.3 | 19.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 |
| Seth Trimble | 31.7 | 13.2 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
| Henri Veesaar | 31.2 | 15.8 | 8.2 | 1.9 |
| Derek Dixon | 27.9 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 3.3 |
| Jarin Stevenson | 26.7 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 0.9 |
| Luka Bogavac | 24.0 | 10.0 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| Jonathan Powell | 15.5 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 0.6 |
| Zayden High | 12.6 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 0.6 |
ARK offenseper gameUNC defenseRank among 361 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
ARKForAgainst47% of ARK's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
UNCForAgainst49% of UNC's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
ARK 0series1 UNC| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2023 | ARK 72 | UNC 87 | UNC+15 | +15 |
From box scores. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | ARK23-7 · last 30 games | UNC22-8 · last 30 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half points against | 44.1#18 of 361 | 36.2#328 of 361 | 39.7 |
| Possessions per game | 72.4#15 of 361 | 67.8#195 of 361 | 68.0 |
| Share of points scored in the 1st half | 46.4%#218 of 361 | 48.6%#41 of 361 | 46.8% |
| Points allowed per 100 possessions | 112.4#122 of 361 | 105.8#282 of 361 | 109.9 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 361 ranked teams, over each team's last 30 regular-season games (Nov 2025 – Mar 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.