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UMBC (22-8 in 2025–26) hosts Morgan State (11-16 in 2025–26) on Nov 12, 2026, 6:00 PM ET.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
MORG offense ranks better in 1 of 4 matchups · UMBC defense in 3 (2 by a clear margin)
UMBC offense ranks better in 4 of 4 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · MORG defense in 0
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 361 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
MORGUMBC
Expected pace: about 68 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best.
MORGUMBCNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Alfred Worrell Jr.'s full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Davis | 37.4 | 14.0 | 3.7 | 6.3 |
| Rob Lawson | 34.1 | 11.9 | 4.0 | 3.1 |
| Alfred Worrell Jr. | 31.8 | 19.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 |
| Christian Meeks | 29.1 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 0.6 |
| Eugene Alvin | 20.6 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 0.5 |
| Marland Harris | 19.7 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 0.4 |
| Walter Peggs Jr. | 18.7 | 9.3 | 2.3 | 0.2 |
| Christian Oliver | 16.0 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 0.5 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ace Valentine | 33.1 | 13.3 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
| DJ Armstrong Jr. | 31.6 | 13.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| Jah'Likai King | 31.0 | 12.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| Jose Roberto Tanchyn | 24.3 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 0.9 |
| Josh Odunowo | 23.4 | 10.3 | 5.3 | 1.0 |
| Caden Diggs | 21.8 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 |
| Riley Jacobs | 12.7 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 0.3 |
| Cougar Downing | 11.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
MORG offenseper gameUMBC defenseRank among 361 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
MORGForAgainst45% of MORG's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
UMBCForAgainst48% of UMBC's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
MORG 1series3 UMBC| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2025 | UMBC 81 | MORG 79 | UMBC+2 | +2 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 2024 | MORG 69 | UMBC 92 | UMBC+23 | +23 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2023 | UMBC 80 | MORG 92 | MORG+12 | +12 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2022 | MORG 63 | UMBC 75 | UMBC+12 | +12 |
From box scores. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | MORG12-18 · last 30 games | UMBC22-8 · last 30 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st half points against | 37.9#47 of 361 | 31.6#328 of 361 | 35.0 |
| Margin per 100 possessions | −11.0#315 of 361 | +11.2#40 of 361 | −0.7 |
| Scoring margin | −7.8#319 of 361 | +7.5#45 of 361 | −0.5 |
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.9#312 of 361 | 113.6#90 of 361 | 109.2 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 361 ranked teams, over each team's last 30 regular-season games (Mar 2025 – Mar 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.