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Michigan State (25-7 in 2025–26) hosts Toledo (17-15 in 2025–26) on Nov 5, 2026.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
TOL offense ranks better in 1 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · MSU defense in 3 (2 by a clear margin)
MSU offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · TOL defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin)
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 361 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
TOLMSU
Expected pace: about 68 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best.
TOLMSUNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Jeremy Fears Jr.'s full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Wilson | 37.0 | 16.5 | 3.7 | 4.5 |
| Leroy Blyden Jr. | 34.7 | 17.0 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| Sean Craig | 31.6 | 10.1 | 6.4 | 1.4 |
| Austin Parks | 27.1 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 2.1 |
| Mynor Strong | 23.7 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| Jaylan Ouwinga | 18.5 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 0.6 |
| Kyler Vanderjagt | 16.0 | 4.9 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Will James Jr. | 10.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Fears Jr. | 33.7 | 18.9 | 1.9 | 9.6 |
| Coen Carr | 30.2 | 11.9 | 5.7 | 1.1 |
| Carson Cooper | 28.1 | 11.5 | 6.9 | 1.3 |
| Jaxon Kohler | 27.3 | 10.7 | 7.9 | 1.4 |
| Jordan Scott | 25.2 | 7.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| Kur Teng | 18.9 | 7.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Divine Ugochukwu | 18.7 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 2.3 |
| Cam Ward | 15.9 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 0.3 |
TOL offenseper gameMSU defenseRank among 361 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
TOLForAgainst50% of TOL's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
MSUForAgainst43% of MSU's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
TOL 0series2 MSU| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | TOL 69 | MSU 92 | MSU+23 | +23 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2021 | TOL 68 | MSU 81 | MSU+13 | +13 |
From box scores. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | TOL17-13 · last 30 games | MSU23-7 · last 30 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st half points against | 36.7#92 of 361 | 32.5#298 of 361 | 35.0 |
| Points allowed per 100 possessions | 112.0#137 of 361 | 102.9#323 of 361 | 109.9 |
| Share of points scored in the 1st half | 48.3%#58 of 361 | 46.7%#190 of 361 | 46.8% |
| Possessions per game | 69.0#130 of 361 | 66.5#259 of 361 | 68.0 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 361 ranked teams, over each team's last 30 regular-season games (Nov 2025 – Mar 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.