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Prop insights

Where a player's own history, in the situations tonight actually has, sits far from the price the books put on his line. Updated Mon 7:14 AM ET.

How much of this to trust

We checked 293 splits across 45 props. 30 cleared the bar below. If the books' prices were exactly right and history were pure noise, about 1.7 would have cleared it anyway (treating every game as independent, which flatters it: splits of one player share games).

A split is compared with the books' own probability of the over, with their margin removed, not with 50%.
Only situations tonight really has are checked (home or road, favorite or underdog, this opponent, this kind of defense, the weather, rest, the quarterback, a teammate the injury report lists as out), never whichever window looks best.
To make the list, the 99% range for his true rate must exclude the books' price, from at least 5 games. Ranked by the gap after pulling his rate toward the price, so a tiny sample cannot lead.
Where history and price disagree, the books often know something the history does not: a bigger or smaller role, an injury, a matchup. This is a list of places to look, not a signal, and it is history, not a prediction.

19 shown

Darnell Mooney has gone over 1.5 receptions in 25 of 32 games over the last three seasons.NYG vs LAR · Mon 8:15 PM ET · Receptions 1.5
Went over
25 of 32
Range for going over
55%–91%
Books price the over at
37%
Check his role: he has been on 70% of his team's snaps lately against 87% in these games, and the line may already reflect that.
Darnell Mooney has gone over 11.5 receiving yards in 29 of 32 games over the last three seasons.NYG vs LAR · Mon 8:15 PM ET · Rec yds 11.5
Went over
29 of 32
Range for going over
70%–98%
Books price the over at
50%
Check his role: he has been on 70% of his team's snaps lately against 87% in these games, and the line may already reflect that.
Darnell Mooney has gone over 1.5 receptions in 14 of 17 road games.NYG vs LAR · Mon 8:15 PM ET · Receptions 1.5
Went over
14 of 17
Range for going over
51%–95%
Books price the over at
37%
Check his role: he has been on 70% of his team's snaps lately against 88% in these games, and the line may already reflect that.
Terrance Ferguson has stayed under 2.5 receptions in 14 of 14 games as a favorite.LAR vs NYG · Mon 8:15 PM ET · Receptions 2.5
Stayed under
14 of 14
Range for going over
0%–32%
Books price the over at
45%
Isaiah Likely has stayed under 4.5 receptions in 16 of 17 road games.NYG vs LAR · Mon 8:15 PM ET · Receptions 4.5
Stayed under
16 of 17
Range for going over
1%–36%
Books price the over at
46%
Isaiah Likely has stayed under 4.5 receptions in 29 of 33 games over the last three seasons.NYG vs LAR · Mon 8:15 PM ET · Receptions 4.5
Stayed under
29 of 33
Range for going over
4%–33%
Books price the over at
46%
Terrance Ferguson has stayed under 2.5 receptions in 15 of 16 games over the last three seasons.LAR vs NYG · Mon 8:15 PM ET · Receptions 2.5
Stayed under
15 of 16
Range for going over
1%–37%
Books price the over at
45%
Theo Johnson has gone over 7.5 receiving yards in 23 of 28 games over the last three seasons.NYG vs LAR · Mon 8:15 PM ET · Rec yds 7.5
Went over
23 of 28
Range for going over
58%–94%
Books price the over at
50%
Blake Corum has stayed under 10.5 carries in 27 of 35 games over the last three seasons.LAR vs NYG · Mon 8:15 PM ET · Rush att 10.5
Stayed under
27 of 35
Range for going over
10%–44%
Books price the over at
53%
Devin Singletary has gone over 4.5 carries in 10 of his last 10 games.NYG vs LAR · Mon 8:15 PM ET · Rush att 4.5
Went over
10 of 10
Range for going over
60%–100%
Books price the over at
56%
Blake Corum has stayed under 10.5 carries in 14 of 17 home games.LAR vs NYG · Mon 8:15 PM ET · Rush att 10.5
Stayed under
14 of 17
Range for going over
5%–49%
Books price the over at
53%
Theo Johnson has gone over 7.5 receiving yards in 10 of 11 games with Jaxson Dart.NYG vs LAR · Mon 8:15 PM ET · Rec yds 7.5
Went over
10 of 11
Range for going over
52%–99%
Books price the over at
50%
Terrance Ferguson has stayed under 32.5 receiving yards in 12 of 14 games as a favorite.LAR vs NYG · Mon 8:15 PM ET · Rec yds 32.5
Stayed under
12 of 14
Range for going over
3%–49%
Books price the over at
50%
Davante Adams has stayed under 5.5 receptions in 16 of 18 games with Matthew Stafford.LAR vs NYG · Mon 8:15 PM ET · Receptions 5.5
Stayed under
16 of 18
Range for going over
2%–41%
Books price the over at
44%
Puka Nacua has gone over 6.5 receptions in 13 of 15 home games.LAR vs NYG · Mon 8:15 PM ET · Receptions 6.5
Went over
13 of 15
Range for going over
53%–97%
Books price the over at
52%
Isaiah Likely has stayed under 43.5 receiving yards in 25 of 33 games over the last three seasons.NYG vs LAR · Mon 8:15 PM ET · Rec yds 43.5
Stayed under
25 of 33
Range for going over
10%–47%
Books price the over at
50%
Theo Johnson has gone over 0.5 receptions in 25 of 28 games over the last three seasons.NYG vs LAR · Mon 8:15 PM ET · Receptions 0.5
Went over
25 of 28
Range for going over
66%–97%
Books price the over at
63%
Blake Corum has stayed under 49.5 rushing yards in 26 of 35 games over the last three seasons.LAR vs NYG · Mon 8:15 PM ET · Rush yds 49.5
Stayed under
26 of 35
Range for going over
12%–47%
Books price the over at
49%
Kyren Williams has gone over 63.5 rushing yards in 28 of 39 games over the last three seasons.LAR vs NYG · Mon 8:15 PM ET · Rush yds 63.5
Went over
28 of 39
Range for going over
51%–86%
Books price the over at
50%
Check his role: he has been on 59% of his team's snaps lately against 76% in these games, and the line may already reflect that.

Lines come from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM through TheRundown and can lag what a book shows right now. Each game is measured against today's line, not the number that game actually had. Games a player played with no stat line count as a zero; games he sat out are left out. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.