NFL · Props

Isaiah Likely

TE · New York Giants

Rec/g: 8.0
Rec yds/g: 78.0
Targets/g: 8.0
2026 games: 1

Props this week

Rec yds 43.5

Over -113 · Under -113 · books price the over at 50%

NYG at LAR · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · underdog by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 8 days rest

LAR allows the 5th-fewest receiving yards to TEs (43 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

What if the line were43.5

8 of 33 over24%range 14–38%avg 59% of snapsbooks price 50% at 43.5 (-113 FD)

Middle half of these games: 9–38 · median 25 · range 0–111

Projected range · contextmedian 22middle half 7.8–4380% range 0–66

How his rec yds tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

Likely's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	19.7%	14.5%	27.6%	10.8%
Targets a game	4.3	3.2	8.0	2.6
Snap share	56.0%	53.2%	49.0%	55.9%

Driver	NYG offense	LAR defense faces
Dropbacks per game	36.0 #18	39.8 #4
Pass rate over expected	−2.7 #26	−0.7 #22
Neutral-script pass rate	49.2% #29	55.1% #15
Dropback success rate	45.3% #16	46.4% #13

Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Throw quality

Passes to him	Likely	League	NYG offense	LAR defense faces
Catchable-target rate	86.0%	68.1%	67.9% #16	69.5% #16
Drop rate	2.7%	5.5%	5.6% #13	6.0% #13
Contested-target rate	9.3%	13.0%	12.2% #22	12.8% #15
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	31.1% #10	32.5% #7

His last 12 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Market curve vs his games

● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number

Number	Best over	Books price	His games
	-670 FD	87%*	52% (17/33)
	-420 FD	81%*	52% (17/33)
	-275 FD	73%*	33% (11/33)
	-146 FD	59%*	24% (8/33)
main	-115 MGM	50%	24% (8/33)
main	-113 FD	50%	24% (8/33)
main	-114 DK	50%	24% (8/33)
	+124 FD	45%*	21% (7/33)
	+205 FD	33%*	18% (6/33)
	+320 FD	24%*	15% (5/33)
	+375 MGM	21%*	12% (4/33)
	+520 FD	16%*	6% (2/33)
	+750 FD	12%*	6% (2/33)
	+1000 FD	9%*	3% (1/33)
	+1400 FD	7%*	3% (1/33)
	+1600 MGM	6%*	0% (0/33)

* A one-sided price includes the book's margin, which is larger on far alternates, so the probability reads a little high. Numbers a book has not refreshed in a while, and old main lines it has moved off, are left out.

Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 1 of his team's games in this span (Nov 7 vs CIN); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	1/5	20%	27.4	27
Last 10	2/10	20%	29.9	21
2026 season	1/1	100%	78.0	78
2025 season	2/14	14%	21.9	13.5
At home	3/16	19%	29.4	26
On the road	5/17	29%	30.4	17
Vs LAR	0/1	0%	6.0	6
As an underdog	2/5	40%	46.8	27
Prime time	5/11	45%	45.4	32
With Jaxson Dart	1/1	100%	78.0	78
Vs tough defenses	2/10	20%	29.0	22

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	41.5	-115	-115
DK	44.5	-114	-110
FD	43.5	-113	-113

Steady at 43.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Receptions 4.5

Over +120 · Under -123 · books price the over at 46%

NYG at LAR · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · underdog by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 8 days rest

LAR allows the 13th-most receptions to TEs (5.3 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

What if the line were4.5

4 of 33 over12%range 6–24%avg 59% of snapsbooks price 46% at 4.5 (+120 MGM)

Middle half of these games: 1–3 · median 2 · range 0–9

Projected range · contextmedian 2.2middle half 1.1–480% range 0–5.3

How his receptions tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

Likely's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	19.7%	14.5%	27.6%	10.8%
Targets a game	4.3	3.2	8.0	2.6
Snap share	56.0%	53.2%	49.0%	55.9%

Driver	NYG offense	LAR defense faces
Dropbacks per game	36.0 #18	39.8 #4
Pass rate over expected	−2.7 #26	−0.7 #22
Neutral-script pass rate	49.2% #29	55.1% #15
Dropback success rate	45.3% #16	46.4% #13

Throw quality

Passes to him	Likely	League	NYG offense	LAR defense faces
Catchable-target rate	86.0%	68.1%	67.9% #16	69.5% #16
Drop rate	2.7%	5.5%	5.6% #13	6.0% #13
Contested-target rate	9.3%	13.0%	12.2% #22	12.8% #15
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	31.1% #10	32.5% #7

Market curve vs his games

● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number

Number	Best over	Books price	His games
	-600 FD	86%*	42% (14/33)
	-240 FD	71%*	24% (8/33)
main	+120 MGM	46%	12% (4/33)
	+320 FD	24%*	6% (2/33)
	+580 FD	15%*	6% (2/33)
	+1500 FD	6%*	0% (0/33)

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	1/5	20%	2.6	2
Last 10	2/10	20%	2.7	2
2026 season	1/1	100%	8.0	8
2025 season	1/14	7%	1.9	2
At home	3/16	19%	2.6	2
On the road	1/17	6%	2.5	2
Vs LAR	0/1	0%	2.0	2
As an underdog	2/5	40%	4.6	3
Prime time	3/11	27%	3.3	3
With Jaxson Dart	1/1	100%	8.0	8
Vs middling defenses	3/10	30%	3.5	2.5

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	4.5	+120	-160
DK	4.5	-104	-123
FD	4.5	-102	-130

Steady at 4.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Anytime TD

Yes +290 · books price yes at 27%

NYG at LAR · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · underdog by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 8 days rest

Teammate

8 of 33 scored24%range 14–38%avg 59% of snapsbooks price 27%

Volume drivers and his share

Likely's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Touch share	7.1%	5.5%	12.1%	4.7%
Touches a game	4.3	3.2	8.0	2.6
Snap share	56.0%	53.2%	49.0%	55.9%

Each bar is measured against a touchdown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 1 of his team's games in this span (Nov 7 vs CIN); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Scored	Rate	TDs/game
Last 5	1/5	20%	0.20
Last 10	2/10	20%	0.20
2026 season	1/1	100%	1.00
2025 season	1/14	7%	0.07
At home	4/16	25%	0.25
On the road	4/17	24%	0.24
Vs LAR	0/1	0%	0.00
As an underdog	2/5	40%	0.40
Prime time	2/11	18%	0.18
With Jaxson Dart	1/1	100%	1.00

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Yes
MGM	—	+240
DK	—	+270
FD	—	+290

We have not seen a line for this yet.

Routes

Routes and coverage

2024–25 seasons · 101 targets with a route label

Weighted by where Isaiah Likely's targets come from, LAR has allowed 0.06 yds/target less than the league average on those routes. They play man on 37% of dropbacks (league 40%).

A description of how LAR's defense has fared, not a projection. Each defense number is pulled toward the league average in proportion to how few targets it rests on.

Route	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt	LAR allow
Quick out	20	90%	5.8(5.5)	+0.11	5.2
Hitch / curl	19	95%	8.0(6.8)	+0.47	6.9
In / dig	10	70%	10.3(9.6)	+1.09	9.0
Shallow cross	10	80%	9.2(6.5)	+0.30	6.9
Corner	9	33%	5.1(10.4)	+0.05	11.5
Post	9	67%	14.9(12.3)	+0.49	11.0
Screen	7	86%	5.9(5.8)	−0.33	6.4
Go	5	40%	16.2(9.9)	+0.84	9.7
Wheel	5	60%	15.2(10.2)	+1.70	9.7
Deep out	3	67%	11.0(8.0)	+0.37	8.6
Slant	3	67%	7.0(7.2)	+0.51	7.2
Texas / angle	1	100%	15.0(6.5)	+0.95	6.2

Against man and zone

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Zone	61	75%	8.7	+0.46
Man	40	75%	9.6	+0.39

Against each coverage

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Cover 1	32	75%	9.7	+0.30
Cover 3	30	73%	8.7	+0.48
Cover 2	21	71%	5.8	+0.05
Cover 0	7	71%	3.1	+0.09
Cover 4	7	86%	10.1	+0.96
Cover 6	2	100%	19.0	+1.44
Cover 9	1	100%	35.0	+3.21
2-man	1	100%	49.0	+5.62

Routes are the ones the player was targetedon: nflverse labels the targeted receiver's route on about nine in ten targets, and routes run without a throw are not public, so this shows where a player's looks come from, not everything he ran. Yards per target in brackets is the league figure for that route. Rows with few targets are dimmed; small samples swing.

Game log

Game	Result	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Rec TD	Snap %
2026 W1 vs DALSep 13	W 28–20	8	8	78	2	49%
2025 W18 @ PITJan 4	L 24–26	2	2	32	0	49%
2025 W17 @ GBDec 27	W 41–24	3	3	27	0	70%
2025 W16 vs NEDec 21	L 24–28	0	0	0	0	40%
2025 W15 @ CINDec 14	W 24–0	0	0	0	0	51%
2025 W14 vs PITDec 7	L 22–27	6	4	25	1	60%
2025 W13 vs CINNov 27	L 14–32	6	5	95	0	52%
2025 W12 vs NYJNov 23	W 23–10	3	1	10	0	57%
2025 W11 @ CLENov 16	W 23–16	3	2	15	0	52%
2025 W10 @ MINNov 9	W 27–19	4	2	17	0	56%
2025 W9 @ MIAOct 30	W 28–6	4	3	60	0	59%
2025 W8 vs CHIOct 26	W 30–16	2	2	8	0	58%
2025 W6 vs LAROct 12	L 3–17	2	2	6	0	81%
2025 W5 vs HOUOct 5	L 10–44	1	1	12	0	53%
2025 W4 @ KCSep 28	L 20–37	0	0	0	0	45%

Prop lines come from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM through TheRundown and can lag what a book shows right now — check the book before you rely on a number. Splits count the games he played (snap counts show who was on the field) and describe the past; they are not a prediction. A game he played with no stat line counts as a zero; a game he sat out is left out, because books void the prop then. Stats and route labels from nflverse. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.