NFL · Props

Terrance Ferguson

TE · Los Angeles Rams

Rec/g: 0.0
Rec yds/g: 0.0
Targets/g: 1.0
2026 games: 1

Props this week

Rec yds 32.5

Over -113 · Under -109 · books price the over at 50%

LAR vs NYG · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · favored by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 11 days rest

NYG allows the 11th-fewest receiving yards to TEs (48 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

What if the line were32.5

3 of 16 over19%range 8–39%avg 41% of snapsbooks price 50% at 32.5 (-113 FD)

Middle half of these games: 0–31.3 · median 3 · range 0–54

Volume drivers and his share

Ferguson's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	6.9%	7.6%	3.7%	6.0%
Targets a game	2.3	2.8	1.0	2.1
Snap share	46.3%	57.0%	51.0%	40.1%

Driver	LAR offense	NYG defense faces
Dropbacks per game	37.4 #11	36.5 #14
Pass rate over expected	+4.6 #3	+0.1 #17
Neutral-script pass rate	59.2% #6	56.1% #8
Dropback success rate	52.0% #2	45.8% #17

Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Throw quality

Passes to him	Ferguson	League	LAR offense	NYG defense faces
Catchable-target rate	43.8%	68.1%	69.4% #7	71.9% #8
Drop rate	7.1%	5.5%	5.5% #15	8.0% #2
Contested-target rate	18.8%	13.0%	15.3% #6	14.7% #8
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	22.4% #31	29.8% #19

His last 13 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Market curve vs his games

● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number

Number	Best over	Books price	His games
	-650 FD	87%*	44% (7/16)
	-390 FD	80%*	44% (7/16)
	-260 FD	72%*	38% (6/16)
	-210 MGM	68%*	31% (5/16)
	-136 FD	58%*	31% (5/16)
main	-113 FD	50%	19% (3/16)
	+205 FD	35%*	13% (2/16)
	+320 FD	24%*	0% (0/16)
	+490 FD	17%*	0% (0/16)
	+450 MGM	18%*	0% (0/16)
	+700 FD	13%*	0% (0/16)
	+920 FD	10%*	0% (0/16)
	+950 MGM	10%*	0% (0/16)
	+1600 MGM	6%*	0% (0/16)

* A one-sided price includes the book's margin, which is larger on far alternates, so the probability reads a little high. Numbers a book has not refreshed in a while, and old main lines it has moved off, are left out.

Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 4 of his team's games in this span (Jan 10 at CAR, Jan 4 vs ARI, Sep 28 vs IND, Sep 21 at PHI); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	2/5	40%	21.2	19
Last 10	2/10	20%	11.2	0
2026 season	0/1	0%	0.0	0
2025 season	3/15	20%	16.7	6
At home	1/6	17%	13.5	3
On the road	2/10	20%	16.9	9.5
As a favorite	2/14	14%	15.5	3
Long rest	2/3	67%	36.0	54
Prime time	2/5	40%	21.6	21
With Matthew Stafford	3/16	19%	15.6	3
Vs tough defenses	1/5	20%	21.4	21
Without Puka Nacua (Questionable)	0/1	0%	31.0	31
With Puka Nacua	3/15	20%	14.6	0
With Jordan Whittington	3/16	19%	15.6	3

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	32.5	-115	-115
DK	32.5	-115	-109
FD	32.5	-113	-113

Steady at 32.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Receptions 2.5

Over +125 · Under -135 · books price the over at 45%

LAR vs NYG · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · favored by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 11 days rest

NYG allows the 12th-fewest receptions to TEs (4.9 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

What if the line were2.5

1 of 16 over6%range 1–24%avg 41% of snapsbooks price 45% at 2.5 (+125 DK)

Middle half of these games: 0–1 · median 0.5 · range 0–3

Volume drivers and his share

Ferguson's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	6.9%	7.6%	3.7%	6.0%
Targets a game	2.3	2.8	1.0	2.1
Snap share	46.3%	57.0%	51.0%	40.1%

Driver	LAR offense	NYG defense faces
Dropbacks per game	37.4 #11	36.5 #14
Pass rate over expected	+4.6 #3	+0.1 #17
Neutral-script pass rate	59.2% #6	56.1% #8
Dropback success rate	52.0% #2	45.8% #17

Throw quality

Passes to him	Ferguson	League	LAR offense	NYG defense faces
Catchable-target rate	43.8%	68.1%	69.4% #7	71.9% #8
Drop rate	7.1%	5.5%	5.5% #15	8.0% #2
Contested-target rate	18.8%	13.0%	15.3% #6	14.7% #8
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	22.4% #31	29.8% #19

Market curve vs his games

● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number

Number	Best over	Books price	His games
	-280 FD	74%*	19% (3/16)
main	+125 DK	45%	6% (1/16)
	+265 FD	27%*	0% (0/16)
	+580 FD	15%*	0% (0/16)

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	1/5	20%	1.2	1
Last 10	1/10	10%	0.7	0
2026 season	0/1	0%	0.0	0
2025 season	1/15	7%	0.8	1
At home	0/6	0%	0.7	0.5
On the road	1/10	10%	0.8	0.5
As a favorite	0/14	0%	0.6	0.5
Long rest	0/3	0%	1.3	2
Prime time	1/5	20%	1.2	1
With Matthew Stafford	1/16	6%	0.8	0.5
Vs middling defenses	0/6	0%	0.5	0.5
Without Puka Nacua (Questionable)	0/1	0%	1.0	1
With Puka Nacua	1/15	7%	0.7	0
With Jordan Whittington	1/16	6%	0.8	0.5

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	2.5	+100	-135
DK	2.5	+125	-159
FD	2.5	+106	-140

Steady at 2.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Anytime TD

Yes +270 · books price yes at 29%

LAR vs NYG · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · favored by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 11 days rest

Teammate

3 of 16 scored19%range 8–39%avg 41% of snapsbooks price 29%

Volume drivers and his share

Ferguson's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Touch share	3.8%	4.3%	1.8%	3.5%
Touches a game	2.3	2.8	1.0	2.1
Snap share	46.3%	57.0%	51.0%	40.1%

Each bar is measured against a touchdown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 4 of his team's games in this span (Jan 10 at CAR, Jan 4 vs ARI, Sep 28 vs IND, Sep 21 at PHI); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Scored	Rate	TDs/game
Last 5	2/5	40%	0.40
Last 10	2/10	20%	0.20
2026 season	0/1	0%	0.00
2025 season	3/15	20%	0.20
At home	0/6	0%	0.00
On the road	3/10	30%	0.30
As a favorite	2/14	14%	0.14
Long rest	1/3	33%	0.33
Prime time	2/5	40%	0.40
With Matthew Stafford	3/16	19%	0.19
Without Puka Nacua (Questionable)	1/1	100%	1.00
With Puka Nacua	2/15	13%	0.13
With Jordan Whittington	3/16	19%	0.19

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Yes
MGM	—	+270
DK	—	+230
FD	—	+240

We have not seen a line for this yet.

Routes

Routes and coverage

2024–25 seasons · 31 targets with a route label

Weighted by where Terrance Ferguson's targets come from, NYG has allowed 0.94 yds/target more than the league average on those routes. They play man on 45% of dropbacks (league 40%).

A description of how NYG's defense has fared, not a projection. Each defense number is pulled toward the league average in proportion to how few targets it rests on.

Route	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt	NYG allow
Corner	8	25%	5.8(10.4)	+0.04	13.1
Go	8	50%	13.4(9.9)	+0.85	10.8
Deep out	3	67%	18.0(8.0)	+1.35	8.3
In / dig	3	33%	10.3(9.6)	+1.34	9.4
Post	2	0%	0.0(12.3)	−1.68	12.2
Quick out	2	100%	3.0(5.5)	+0.21	5.1
Shallow cross	2	50%	3.0(6.5)	−0.96	6.2
Wheel	2	0%	0.0(10.2)	−0.91	10.8
Hitch / curl	1	0%	0.0(6.8)	−4.72	6.7

Against man and zone

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Zone	16	31%	7.3	−0.13
Man	15	47%	8.9	+0.40

Against each coverage

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Cover 1	11	36%	8.5	+0.06
Cover 3	6	50%	14.5	+0.20
Cover 2	5	20%	0.6	−0.73
Cover 4	3	33%	9.0	+0.56
2-man	2	50%	3.0	−0.54
Cover 0	2	100%	17.0	+3.16
Cover 6	2	0%	0.0	−0.68

Routes are the ones the player was targetedon: nflverse labels the targeted receiver's route on about nine in ten targets, and routes run without a throw are not public, so this shows where a player's looks come from, not everything he ran. Yards per target in brackets is the league figure for that route. Rows with few targets are dimmed; small samples swing.

Game log

Game	Result	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Rec TD	Snap %
2026 W1 vs SFSep 10	L 7–27	1	0	0	0	51%
2025 W21 · playoffs @ SEAJan 25	L 27–31	1	0	0	0	59%
2025 W20 · playoffs @ CHIJan 18	W 20–17	5	1	19	0	29%
2025 W17 @ ATLDec 29	L 24–27	4	2	54	1	49%
2025 W16 @ SEADec 18	L 37–38	4	3	33	1	76%
2025 W15 vs DETDec 14	W 41–34	2	1	6	0	78%
2025 W14 @ ARIDec 7	W 45–17	1	0	0	0	64%
2025 W13 @ CARNov 30	L 28–31	2	0	0	0	35%
2025 W12 vs TBNov 23	W 34–7	1	0	0	0	27%
2025 W11 vs SEANov 16	W 21–19	0	0	0	0	29%
2025 W10 @ SFNov 9	W 42–26	4	1	32	0	32%
2025 W9 vs NONov 2	W 34–10	3	2	54	0	30%
2025 W7 @ JAXOct 19	W 35–7	3	1	31	1	49%
2025 W6 @ BALOct 12	W 17–3	0	0	0	0	32%
2025 W5 vs SFOct 2	L 23–26	1	1	21	0	6%
2025 W2 @ TENSep 14	W 33–19	0	0	0	0	7%

Prop lines come from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM through TheRundown and can lag what a book shows right now — check the book before you rely on a number. Splits count the games he played (snap counts show who was on the field) and describe the past; they are not a prediction. A game he played with no stat line counts as a zero; a game he sat out is left out, because books void the prop then. Stats and route labels from nflverse. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.