NFL · Props

Theo Johnson

TE · New York Giants

Rec/g: 1.0
Rec yds/g: 9.0
Targets/g: 1.0
2026 games: 1

Props this week

Rec yds 7.5

Over -113 · Under -113 · books price the over at 50%

NYG at LAR · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · underdog by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 8 days rest

LAR allows the 5th-fewest receiving yards to TEs (43 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

What if the line were7.5

23 of 28 over82%range 68–91%avg 84% of snapsbooks price 50% at 7.5 (-113 FD)

Middle half of these games: 12.3–41.3 · median 29.5 · range 0–77

Projected range · contextmedian 23middle half 8.4–4680% range 0–71

How his rec yds tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

Johnson's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	9.0%	14.5%	3.4%	16.7%
Targets a game	2.3	4.0	1.0	4.9
Snap share	76.3%	81.3%	46.0%	86.7%

Driver	NYG offense	LAR defense faces
Dropbacks per game	36.0 #18	39.8 #4
Pass rate over expected	−2.7 #26	−0.7 #22
Neutral-script pass rate	49.2% #29	55.1% #15
Dropback success rate	45.3% #16	46.4% #13

Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Throw quality

Passes to him	Johnson	League	NYG offense	LAR defense faces
Catchable-target rate	77.0%	68.1%	67.9% #16	69.5% #16
Drop rate	14.0%	5.5%	5.6% #13	6.0% #13
Contested-target rate	17.6%	13.0%	12.2% #22	12.8% #15
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	31.1% #10	32.5% #7

His last 16 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Market curve vs his games

● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number

Number	Best over	Books price	His games
	-162 FD	62%*	89% (25/28)
main	-113 FD	50%	82% (23/28)
	+110 FD	48%*	79% (22/28)
	+178 FD	36%*	71% (20/28)
	+270 FD	27%*	64% (18/28)
	+370 FD	21%*	61% (17/28)
	+520 FD	16%*	50% (14/28)
	+880 FD	10%*	25% (7/28)

* A one-sided price includes the book's margin, which is larger on far alternates, so the probability reads a little high. Numbers a book has not refreshed in a while, and old main lines it has moved off, are left out.

Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero.

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	4/5	80%	37.4	29
Last 10	9/10	90%	41.1	32.5
2026 season	1/1	100%	9.0	9
2025 season	13/15	87%	35.2	29
At home	11/14	79%	24.4	22.5
On the road	12/14	86%	37.6	34.5
As an underdog	21/26	81%	29.2	28
Prime time	6/7	86%	20.9	27
With Jaxson Dart	10/11	91%	34.1	27
Vs tough defenses	10/13	77%	26.0	20

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
FD	7.5	-113	-113

Steady at 7.5 since Sep 21, 1:43 AM ET.

Receptions 0.5

Over -210 · Under +154 · books price the over at 63%

NYG at LAR · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · underdog by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 8 days rest

LAR allows the 13th-most receptions to TEs (5.3 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

What if the line were0.5

25 of 28 over89%range 76–96%avg 84% of snapsbooks price 63% at 0.5 (-210 FD)

Middle half of these games: 1–3 · median 3 · range 0–7

Projected range · contextmedian 2middle half 1–3.680% range 0–4.9

How his receptions tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

Johnson's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	9.0%	14.5%	3.4%	16.7%
Targets a game	2.3	4.0	1.0	4.9
Snap share	76.3%	81.3%	46.0%	86.7%

Driver	NYG offense	LAR defense faces
Dropbacks per game	36.0 #18	39.8 #4
Pass rate over expected	−2.7 #26	−0.7 #22
Neutral-script pass rate	49.2% #29	55.1% #15
Dropback success rate	45.3% #16	46.4% #13

Throw quality

Passes to him	Johnson	League	NYG offense	LAR defense faces
Catchable-target rate	77.0%	68.1%	67.9% #16	69.5% #16
Drop rate	14.0%	5.5%	5.6% #13	6.0% #13
Contested-target rate	17.6%	13.0%	12.2% #22	12.8% #15
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	31.1% #10	32.5% #7

Market curve vs his games

● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number

Number	Best over	Books price	His games
main	-210 FD	63%	89% (25/28)
	+225 FD	31%*	68% (19/28)
	+700 FD	13%*	64% (18/28)

Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero.

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	4/5	80%	2.0	3
Last 10	9/10	90%	2.9	3
2026 season	1/1	100%	1.0	1
2025 season	14/15	93%	3.0	3
At home	12/14	86%	1.9	2.5
On the road	13/14	93%	3.4	3
As an underdog	23/26	88%	2.6	3
Prime time	7/7	100%	2.0	2
With Jaxson Dart	10/11	91%	3.1	3
Vs middling defenses	6/8	75%	2.3	2

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
FD	0.5	-210	+154

Steady at 0.5 since Sep 21, 1:43 AM ET.

Anytime TD

Yes +850 · books price yes at 12%

NYG at LAR · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · underdog by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 8 days rest

Teammate

5 of 28 scored18%range 9–32%avg 84% of snapsbooks price 12%

Volume drivers and his share

Johnson's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Touch share	4.0%	6.6%	1.5%	8.3%
Touches a game	2.3	4.0	1.0	4.9
Snap share	76.3%	81.3%	46.0%	86.7%

Each bar is measured against a touchdown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero.

Split	Scored	Rate	TDs/game
Last 5	0/5	0%	0.00
Last 10	2/10	20%	0.20
2026 season	0/1	0%	0.00
2025 season	4/15	27%	0.27
At home	3/14	21%	0.21
On the road	2/14	14%	0.14
As an underdog	5/26	19%	0.19
Prime time	0/7	0%	0.00
With Jaxson Dart	4/11	36%	0.36

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Yes
MGM	—	+625
DK	—	+850
FD	—	+800

We have not seen a line for this yet.

Routes

Routes and coverage

2024–25 seasons · 116 targets with a route label

Weighted by where Theo Johnson's targets come from, LAR has allowed 0.01 yds/target less than the league average on those routes. They play man on 37% of dropbacks (league 40%).

A description of how LAR's defense has fared, not a projection. Each defense number is pulled toward the league average in proportion to how few targets it rests on.

Route	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt	LAR allow
Quick out	30	70%	4.6(5.5)	−0.16	5.2
Hitch / curl	14	71%	6.2(6.8)	+0.21	6.9
In / dig	13	46%	8.7(9.6)	−0.29	9.0
Screen	11	91%	5.4(5.8)	−0.17	6.4
Go	10	50%	14.5(9.9)	+0.67	9.7
Shallow cross	10	70%	6.1(6.5)	+0.23	6.9
Deep out	9	78%	10.9(8.0)	+1.01	8.6
Corner	7	29%	5.3(10.4)	+0.05	11.5
Slant	6	33%	8.5(7.2)	+0.23	7.2
Post	5	60%	9.4(12.3)	+0.56	11.0
Wheel	1	100%	24.0(10.2)	+2.18	9.7

Against man and zone

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Zone	74	64%	7.1	+0.13
Man	42	64%	8.0	+0.18

Against each coverage

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Cover 1	31	65%	9.2	+0.38
Cover 3	31	65%	7.4	+0.40
Cover 2	25	72%	7.3	−0.12
Cover 4	10	70%	9.4	+0.22
Cover 0	7	57%	2.7	−0.63
Cover 6	5	20%	3.0	−0.16
2-man	4	75%	7.8	+0.05
Cover 9	3	33%	1.7	−0.30

Routes are the ones the player was targetedon: nflverse labels the targeted receiver's route on about nine in ten targets, and routes run without a throw are not public, so this shows where a player's looks come from, not everything he ran. Yards per target in brackets is the league figure for that route. Rows with few targets are dimmed; small samples swing.

Game log

Game	Result	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Rec TD	Snap %
2026 W1 vs DALSep 13	W 28–20	1	1	9	0	46%
2025 W16 vs MINDec 21	L 13–16	2	0	0	0	96%
2025 W15 vs WSHDec 14	L 21–29	4	3	72	0	87%
2025 W13 @ NEDec 1	L 15–33	8	3	29	0	89%
2025 W12 @ DETNov 23	L 27–34	5	3	77	0	78%
2025 W11 vs GBNov 16	L 20–27	4	3	36	0	92%
2025 W10 @ CHINov 9	L 20–24	8	7	75	0	97%
2025 W9 vs SFNov 2	L 24–34	6	3	27	1	86%
2025 W8 @ PHIOct 26	L 20–38	4	3	20	0	98%
2025 W7 @ DENOct 19	L 32–33	7	3	66	1	88%
2025 W6 vs PHIOct 9	W 34–17	4	2	27	0	90%
2025 W5 @ NOOct 5	L 14–26	7	6	33	2	82%
2025 W4 vs LACSep 28	W 21–18	5	3	17	1	70%
2025 W3 vs KCSep 21	L 9–22	2	1	10	0	86%
2025 W2 @ DALSep 14	L 37–40	5	4	34	0	84%
2025 W1 @ WSHSep 7	L 6–21	3	1	5	0	78%

Prop lines come from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM through TheRundown and can lag what a book shows right now — check the book before you rely on a number. Splits count the games he played (snap counts show who was on the field) and describe the past; they are not a prediction. A game he played with no stat line counts as a zero; a game he sat out is left out, because books void the prop then. Stats and route labels from nflverse. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.