NFL · Props

Kyren Williams

RB · Los Angeles Rams

Rush yds/g: 41.0
Rec/g: 3.0
Rec yds/g: 24.0
Targets/g: 3.0
2026 games: 1

Props this week

Rush yds 63.5

Over -113 · Under -113 · books price the over at 50%

LAR vs NYG · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · favored by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 11 days rest

NYG allows the 5th-most rushing yards to RBs (112 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

What if the line were63.5

28 of 39 over72%range 59–82%avg 76% of snapsbooks price 50% at 63.5 (-113 FD)

Middle half of these games: 61–91.5 · median 76 · range 25–122

Projected range · contextmedian 52middle half 32–7580% range 19.1–102

How his rush yds tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

Williams's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Carry share	51.2%	49.4%	37.9%	55.4%
Carries a game	14.0	13.3	11.0	15.2
Snap share	59.3%	62.5%	64.0%	66.9%

Driver	LAR offense	NYG defense faces
Rushes per game	25.7 #8	23.4 #24
Rush rate over expected	−4.6 #30	−0.1 #16
Early-down rush rate	44.8% #17	44.8% #19

Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Market curve vs his games

● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number

Number	Best over	Books price	His games
	-1200 FD	92%*	97% (38/39)
	-470 FD	82%*	95% (37/39)
	-245 FD	73%*	90% (35/39)
main	-114 DK	50%	72% (28/39)
main	-113 FD	50%	72% (28/39)
main	-115 MGM	50%	72% (28/39)
	+116 FD	46%*	62% (24/39)
	+125 MGM	44%*	51% (20/39)
	+178 FD	36%*	41% (16/39)
	+270 FD	27%*	28% (11/39)
	+390 FD	22%*	15% (6/39)
	+550 FD	15%*	5% (2/39)
	+750 MGM	12%*	0% (0/39)
	+2000 FD	5%*	0% (0/39)

* A one-sided price includes the book's margin, which is larger on far alternates, so the probability reads a little high. Numbers a book has not refreshed in a while, and old main lines it has moved off, are left out.

Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 1 of his team's games in this span (Jan 5 vs SEA); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	1/5	20%	56.8	57
Last 10	6/10	60%	68.0	71
2026 season	0/1	0%	41.0	41
2025 season	14/20	70%	71.8	71
At home	13/18	72%	75.3	76
On the road	15/21	71%	76.3	73
As a favorite	17/26	65%	72.0	70.5
Long rest	5/6	83%	87.2	84
Prime time	7/12	58%	69.6	67.5
With Matthew Stafford	28/39	72%	75.8	76
Vs soft defenses	10/15	67%	70.9	69
Without Puka Nacua (Questionable)	4/6	67%	73.3	82.5
With Puka Nacua	24/33	73%	76.3	73
Without Jordan Whittington (Doubtful)	3/5	60%	71.0	69
With Jordan Whittington	25/34	74%	76.5	76.5

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	64.5	-115	-115
DK	62.5	-114	-110
FD	63.5	-113	-113

Sep 21, 1:43 AM ET63.5▲ 1
Sep 20, 7:33 PM ET62.5▼ 1
Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET63.5first seen

Rec yds 15.5

Over -113 · Under -111 · books price the over at 50%

LAR vs NYG · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · favored by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 11 days rest

NYG allows the 14th-fewest receiving yards to RBs (31 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

What if the line were15.5

17 of 39 over44%range 31–57%avg 76% of snapsbooks price 50% at 15.5 (-113 FD)

Middle half of these games: 4–20.5 · median 13 · range -1–66

Volume drivers and his share

Williams's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	9.9%	9.3%	11.1%	8.5%
Targets a game	3.3	3.3	3.0	3.0
Snap share	59.3%	62.5%	64.0%	66.9%

Driver	LAR offense	NYG defense faces
Dropbacks per game	37.4 #11	36.5 #14
Pass rate over expected	+4.6 #3	+0.1 #17
Neutral-script pass rate	59.2% #6	56.1% #8
Dropback success rate	52.0% #2	45.8% #17

Throw quality

Passes to him	Williams	League	LAR offense	NYG defense faces
Catchable-target rate	83.6%	68.1%	69.4% #7	71.9% #8
Drop rate	2.2%	5.5%	5.5% #15	8.0% #2
Contested-target rate	9.1%	13.0%	15.3% #6	14.7% #8
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	22.4% #31	29.8% #19

His last 17 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Market curve vs his games

● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number

Number	Best over	Books price	His games
	-500 FD	83%*	72% (28/39)
	-230 FD	70%*	64% (25/39)
main	-111 DK	50%	46% (18/39)
main	-113 FD	50%	44% (17/39)
	+130 FD	43%*	28% (11/39)
	+165 MGM	38%*	18% (7/39)
	+280 FD	26%*	10% (4/39)
	+520 FD	16%*	3% (1/39)
	+775 MGM	11%*	3% (1/39)
	+1700 MGM	6%*	0% (0/39)
	+2000 MGM	5%*	0% (0/39)

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	5/5	100%	23.0	22
Last 10	6/10	60%	19.1	19.5
2026 season	1/1	100%	24.0	24
2025 season	9/20	45%	17.6	14.5
At home	9/18	50%	14.4	13
On the road	8/21	38%	14.9	13
As a favorite	12/26	46%	16.3	13.5
Long rest	3/6	50%	18.0	16.5
Prime time	7/12	58%	18.7	16
With Matthew Stafford	17/39	44%	14.7	13
Vs middling defenses	8/15	53%	17.9	16
Without Puka Nacua (Questionable)	2/6	33%	13.0	10.5
With Puka Nacua	15/33	45%	15.0	14
Without Jordan Whittington (Doubtful)	4/5	80%	16.8	19
With Jordan Whittington	13/34	38%	14.4	11

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	15.5	-120	-111
DK	14.5	-111	-113
FD	15.5	-113	-113

Sep 21, 1:43 AM ET15.5▲ 1
Sep 20, 7:33 PM ET14.5▼ 1
Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET15.5first seen

Receptions 2.5

Over +120 · Under -145 · books price the over at 44%

LAR vs NYG · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · favored by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 11 days rest

NYG allows the 10th-most receptions to RBs (4.6 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

What if the line were2.5

14 of 39 over36%range 25–49%avg 76% of snapsbooks price 44% at 2.5 (+120 MGM)

Middle half of these games: 1–3 · median 2 · range 0–8

Volume drivers and his share

Williams's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	9.9%	9.3%	11.1%	8.5%
Targets a game	3.3	3.3	3.0	3.0
Snap share	59.3%	62.5%	64.0%	66.9%

Driver	LAR offense	NYG defense faces
Dropbacks per game	37.4 #11	36.5 #14
Pass rate over expected	+4.6 #3	+0.1 #17
Neutral-script pass rate	59.2% #6	56.1% #8
Dropback success rate	52.0% #2	45.8% #17

Throw quality

Passes to him	Williams	League	LAR offense	NYG defense faces
Catchable-target rate	83.6%	68.1%	69.4% #7	71.9% #8
Drop rate	2.2%	5.5%	5.5% #15	8.0% #2
Contested-target rate	9.1%	13.0%	15.3% #6	14.7% #8
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	22.4% #31	29.8% #19

Market curve vs his games

● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number

Number	Best over	Books price	His games
	-1450 FD	94%*	87% (34/39)
	-270 FD	73%*	64% (25/39)
main	+120 MGM	44%	36% (14/39)
	+260 FD	28%*	15% (6/39)

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	3/5	60%	2.8	3
Last 10	5/10	50%	2.3	2.5
2026 season	1/1	100%	3.0	3
2025 season	6/20	30%	2.2	2
At home	8/18	44%	2.3	2
On the road	6/21	29%	2.0	2
As a favorite	9/26	35%	2.1	2
Long rest	1/6	17%	1.2	1
Prime time	9/12	75%	3.3	3
With Matthew Stafford	14/39	36%	2.2	2
Vs soft defenses	7/16	44%	2.6	2
Without Puka Nacua (Questionable)	2/6	33%	2.2	2
With Puka Nacua	12/33	36%	2.2	2
Without Jordan Whittington (Doubtful)	2/5	40%	2.2	2
With Jordan Whittington	12/34	35%	2.2	2

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	2.5	+120	-160
DK	2.5	+114	-145
FD	2.5	+112	-148

Steady at 2.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Rush + rec yds 87.5

Over -112 · Under -114 · books price the over at 50%

LAR vs NYG · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · favored by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 11 days rest

NYG allows the 4th-most rushing + receiving yards to RBs (143 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

What if the line were87.5

20 of 39 over51%range 38–64%avg 76% of snapsbooks price 50% at 87.5 (-112 DK)

Middle half of these games: 73.5–108.5 · median 88 · range 48–131

Projected range · contextmedian 77middle half 55–10580% range 35–131

How his rush + rec yds tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

Williams's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	9.9%	9.3%	11.1%	8.5%
Carry share	51.2%	49.4%	37.9%	55.4%
Touches a game	17.3	16.7	14.0	18.1
Snap share	59.3%	62.5%	64.0%	66.9%

Driver	LAR offense	NYG defense faces
Rushes per game	25.7 #8	23.4 #24
Rush rate over expected	−4.6 #30	−0.1 #16
Dropbacks per game	37.4 #11	36.5 #14
Pass rate over expected	+4.6 #3	+0.1 #17

Throw quality

Passes to him	Williams	League	LAR offense	NYG defense faces
Catchable-target rate	83.6%	68.1%	69.4% #7	71.9% #8
Drop rate	2.2%	5.5%	5.5% #15	8.0% #2
Contested-target rate	9.1%	13.0%	15.3% #6	14.7% #8
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	22.4% #31	29.8% #19

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	1/5	20%	79.8	75
Last 10	4/10	40%	87.1	83
2026 season	0/1	0%	65.0	65
2025 season	9/20	45%	89.3	86
At home	10/18	56%	89.7	90
On the road	10/21	48%	91.2	87
As a favorite	11/26	42%	88.4	85
Long rest	4/6	67%	105.2	104.5
Prime time	5/12	42%	88.3	83.5
With Matthew Stafford	20/39	51%	90.5	88
Vs soft defenses	3/12	25%	78.9	75.5
Without Puka Nacua (Questionable)	3/6	50%	86.3	90
With Puka Nacua	17/33	52%	91.2	88
Without Jordan Whittington (Doubtful)	2/5	40%	87.8	81
With Jordan Whittington	18/34	53%	90.9	90

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
DK	87.5	-112	-114

Steady at 87.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Rush att 13.5

Over -130 · Under -105 · books price the over at 52%

LAR vs NYG · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · favored by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 11 days rest

NYG allows the 11th-fewest carries to RBs (21 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

What if the line were13.5

25 of 39 over64%range 51–75%avg 76% of snapsbooks price 52% at 13.5 (-130 MGM)

Middle half of these games: 13–21 · median 15 · range 10–29

Projected range · contextmedian 12.6middle half 9.1–16.180% range 6.2–19.6

How his rush att tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

Williams's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Carry share	51.2%	49.4%	37.9%	55.4%
Carries a game	14.0	13.3	11.0	15.2
Snap share	59.3%	62.5%	64.0%	66.9%

Driver	LAR offense	NYG defense faces
Rushes per game	25.7 #8	23.4 #24
Rush rate over expected	−4.6 #30	−0.1 #16
Early-down rush rate	44.8% #17	44.8% #19

Market curve vs his games

● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number

Number	Best over	Books price	His games
main	-130 MGM	52%	64% (25/39)
main	+103 DK	46%	59% (23/39)

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	1/5	20%	13.4	12
Last 10	3/10	30%	14.4	13
2026 season	0/1	0%	11.0	11
2025 season	9/20	45%	15.2	13
At home	12/18	67%	17.3	15.5
On the road	13/21	62%	16.9	15
As a favorite	13/26	50%	15.3	13.5
Long rest	4/6	67%	19.5	21.5
Prime time	8/12	67%	16.9	15.5
With Matthew Stafford	25/39	64%	17.1	15
Vs tough defenses	11/15	73%	18.3	19
Without Puka Nacua (Questionable)	4/6	67%	18.3	20
With Puka Nacua	21/33	64%	16.8	15
Without Jordan Whittington (Doubtful)	3/5	60%	17.2	16
With Jordan Whittington	22/34	65%	17.0	15

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	13.5	-130	-105
DK	14.5	+103	-131

Sep 20, 7:33 PM ET13.5▼ 1
Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET14.5first seen

Anytime TD

Yes -175 · books price yes at 64%

LAR vs NYG · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · favored by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 11 days rest

Teammate

27 of 39 scored69%range 56–80%avg 76% of snapsbooks price 64%

Volume drivers and his share

Williams's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Touch share	28.4%	26.5%	25.0%	29.1%
Touches a game	17.3	16.7	14.0	18.1
Snap share	59.3%	62.5%	64.0%	66.9%

Each bar is measured against a touchdown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 1 of his team's games in this span (Jan 5 vs SEA); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Scored	Rate	TDs/game
Last 5	4/5	80%	0.80
Last 10	7/10	70%	0.70
2026 season	1/1	100%	1.00
2025 season	13/20	65%	0.65
At home	14/18	78%	0.78
On the road	13/21	62%	0.62
As a favorite	17/26	65%	0.65
Long rest	4/6	67%	0.67
Prime time	7/12	58%	0.58
With Matthew Stafford	27/39	69%	0.69
Without Puka Nacua (Questionable)	5/6	83%	0.83
With Puka Nacua	22/33	67%	0.67
Without Jordan Whittington (Doubtful)	3/5	60%	0.60
With Jordan Whittington	24/34	71%	0.71

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Yes
MGM	—	-175
DK	—	-180
FD	—	-190

We have not seen a line for this yet.

Routes

Routes and coverage

2024–25 seasons · 104 targets with a route label

Weighted by where Kyren Williams's targets come from, NYG has allowed 0.11 yds/target less than the league average on those routes. They play man on 45% of dropbacks (league 40%).

A description of how NYG's defense has fared, not a projection. Each defense number is pulled toward the league average in proportion to how few targets it rests on.

Route	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt	NYG allow
Quick out	43	77%	5.9(5.5)	+0.23	5.1
Hitch / curl	20	85%	5.5(6.8)	+0.10	6.7
Swing	17	76%	4.1(5.3)	−0.28	5.4
Screen	9	78%	-0.6(5.8)	−0.71	6.1
Texas / angle	9	100%	8.1(6.5)	+0.99	6.6
Shallow cross	3	33%	1.0(6.5)	−0.24	6.2
Go	2	50%	15.0(9.9)	+1.42	10.8
Slant	1	100%	13.0(7.2)	+1.58	6.8

Against man and zone

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Zone	75	80%	5.0	+0.04
Man	29	76%	5.9	+0.36

Against each coverage

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Cover 2	28	89%	4.8	+0.05
Cover 1	22	68%	4.4	+0.01
Cover 3	20	65%	4.9	−0.08
Cover 4	13	77%	5.9	+0.29
Cover 6	9	89%	3.9	−0.22
Cover 9	5	80%	6.6	+0.24
2-man	4	100%	15.0	+2.08
Cover 0	3	100%	4.7	+0.66

Routes are the ones the player was targetedon: nflverse labels the targeted receiver's route on about nine in ten targets, and routes run without a throw are not public, so this shows where a player's looks come from, not everything he ran. Yards per target in brackets is the league figure for that route. Rows with few targets are dimmed; small samples swing.

Game log

Game	Result	Car	Rush yds	Rush TD	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Rec TD	Snap %
2026 W1 vs SFSep 10	L 7–27	11	41	1	3	3	24	0	64%
2025 W21 · playoffs @ SEAJan 25	L 27–31	10	39	0	2	2	22	1	51%
2025 W20 · playoffs @ CHIJan 18	W 20–17	21	87	2	5	4	30	0	63%
2025 W19 · playoffs @ CARJan 10	W 34–31	13	57	0	2	2	18	1	63%
2025 W18 vs ARIJan 4	W 37–20	12	60	0	5	3	21	0	63%
2025 W17 @ ATLDec 29	L 24–27	13	92	0	3	3	38	0	71%
2025 W16 @ SEADec 18	L 37–38	23	70	0	6	3	15	0	71%
2025 W15 vs DETDec 14	W 41–34	15	78	2	1	1	10	0	54%
2025 W14 @ ARIDec 7	W 45–17	13	84	1	2	2	13	0	51%
2025 W13 @ CARNov 30	L 28–31	13	72	1	1	0	0	0	67%
2025 W12 vs TBNov 23	W 34–7	12	46	0	1	1	2	0	66%
2025 W11 vs SEANov 16	W 21–19	12	91	1	2	1	5	0	69%
2025 W10 @ SFNov 9	W 42–26	14	73	2	3	2	11	0	58%
2025 W9 vs NONov 2	W 34–10	25	114	1	0	0	0	0	69%
2025 W7 @ JAXOct 19	W 35–7	12	54	0	3	2	11	0	60%
2025 W6 @ BALOct 12	W 17–3	13	50	1	2	2	37	0	75%
2025 W5 vs SFOct 2	L 23–26	14	65	0	10	8	66	2	91%
2025 W4 vs INDSep 28	W 27–20	13	77	0	4	3	17	0	68%
2025 W3 @ PHISep 21	L 26–33	20	94	0	3	2	18	1	76%
2025 W2 @ TENSep 14	W 33–19	17	66	0	2	2	14	0	70%
2025 W1 vs HOUSep 7	W 14–9	18	66	1	2	1	3	0	82%

Prop lines come from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM through TheRundown and can lag what a book shows right now — check the book before you rely on a number. Splits count the games he played (snap counts show who was on the field) and describe the past; they are not a prediction. A game he played with no stat line counts as a zero; a game he sat out is left out, because books void the prop then. Stats and route labels from nflverse. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.