NFL · Props

Darnell Mooney

WR · New York Giants

Rec/g: 2.0
Rec yds/g: 27.0
Targets/g: 2.0
2026 games: 1

Props this week

Rec yds 11.5

Over -113 · Under -113 · books price the over at 50%

NYG at LAR · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · underdog by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 8 days rest

LAR allows the 9th-most receiving yards to WRs (154 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

What if the line were11.5

29 of 32 over91%range 79–96%avg 87% of snapsbooks price 50% at 11.5 (-113 FD)

Middle half of these games: 20–69.5 · median 35 · range 0–142

Projected range · contextmedian 24middle half 8.5–4780% range 0–72

How his rec yds tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

Mooney's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	15.2%	13.3%	6.9%	16.2%
Targets a game	4.0	4.0	2.0	4.8
Snap share	70.0%	74.8%	57.0%	81.9%

Driver	NYG offense	LAR defense faces
Dropbacks per game	36.0 #18	39.8 #4
Pass rate over expected	−2.7 #26	−0.7 #22
Neutral-script pass rate	49.2% #29	55.1% #15
Dropback success rate	45.3% #16	46.4% #13

Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Throw quality

Passes to him	Mooney	League	NYG offense	LAR defense faces
Catchable-target rate	54.1%	68.1%	67.9% #16	69.5% #16
Drop rate	7.5%	5.5%	5.6% #13	6.0% #13
Contested-target rate	12.2%	13.0%	12.2% #22	12.8% #15
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	31.1% #10	32.5% #7

His last 16 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Market curve vs his games

● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number

Number	Best over	Books price	His games
	-245 FD	71%*	97% (31/32)
	-138 FD	58%*	94% (30/32)
main	-113 FD	50%	91% (29/32)
	+116 FD	46%*	91% (29/32)
	+172 FD	37%*	78% (25/32)
	+230 FD	30%*	66% (21/32)
	+320 FD	24%*	56% (18/32)
	+520 FD	16%*	41% (13/32)
	+800 FD	11%*	34% (11/32)

* A one-sided price includes the book's margin, which is larger on far alternates, so the probability reads a little high. Numbers a book has not refreshed in a while, and old main lines it has moved off, are left out.

Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 1 of his team's games in this span (Oct 13 vs BUF); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	5/5	100%	28.2	27
Last 10	9/10	90%	29.7	26
2026 season	1/1	100%	27.0	27
2025 season	13/15	87%	29.5	24
At home	13/15	87%	41.7	34
On the road	16/17	94%	49.2	37
Vs LAR	1/1	100%	35.0	35
As an underdog	14/15	93%	45.1	35
Prime time	9/10	90%	48.1	36
With Jaxson Dart	1/1	100%	27.0	27
Vs soft defenses	7/7	100%	71.9	86

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
FD	11.5	-113	-113

Steady at 11.5 since Sep 21, 1:43 AM ET.

Receptions 1.5

Over +154 · Under -210 · books price the over at 37%

NYG at LAR · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · underdog by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 8 days rest

LAR allows the 10th-most receptions to WRs (12 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

What if the line were1.5

25 of 32 over78%range 64–88%avg 87% of snapsbooks price 37% at 1.5 (+154 FD)

Middle half of these games: 2–4 · median 3 · range 0–9

Volume drivers and his share

Mooney's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	15.2%	13.3%	6.9%	16.2%
Targets a game	4.0	4.0	2.0	4.8
Snap share	70.0%	74.8%	57.0%	81.9%

Driver	NYG offense	LAR defense faces
Dropbacks per game	36.0 #18	39.8 #4
Pass rate over expected	−2.7 #26	−0.7 #22
Neutral-script pass rate	49.2% #29	55.1% #15
Dropback success rate	45.3% #16	46.4% #13

Throw quality

Passes to him	Mooney	League	NYG offense	LAR defense faces
Catchable-target rate	54.1%	68.1%	67.9% #16	69.5% #16
Drop rate	7.5%	5.5%	5.6% #13	6.0% #13
Contested-target rate	12.2%	13.0%	12.2% #22	12.8% #15
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	31.1% #10	32.5% #7

Market curve vs his games

● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number

Number	Best over	Books price	His games
	-320 FD	76%*	97% (31/32)
main	+154 FD	37%	78% (25/32)
	+450 FD	18%*	56% (18/32)

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	5/5	100%	2.4	2
Last 10	8/10	80%	2.2	2
2026 season	1/1	100%	2.0	2
2025 season	10/15	67%	2.1	2
At home	11/15	73%	3.5	3
On the road	14/17	82%	2.7	3
Vs LAR	1/1	100%	2.0	2
As an underdog	12/15	80%	2.8	2
Prime time	9/10	90%	3.4	2.5
With Jaxson Dart	1/1	100%	2.0	2
Vs soft defenses	7/8	88%	3.8	3

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
FD	1.5	+154	-210

Steady at 1.5 since Sep 21, 1:43 AM ET.

Anytime TD

Yes +850 · books price yes at 12%

NYG at LAR · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · underdog by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 8 days rest

Teammate

5 of 32 scored16%range 8–29%avg 87% of snapsbooks price 12%

Volume drivers and his share

Mooney's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Touch share	6.9%	6.6%	3.0%	8.4%
Touches a game	4.0	4.0	2.0	4.8
Snap share	70.0%	74.8%	57.0%	81.9%

Each bar is measured against a touchdown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 1 of his team's games in this span (Oct 13 vs BUF); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Scored	Rate	TDs/game
Last 5	0/5	0%	0.00
Last 10	1/10	10%	0.10
2026 season	0/1	0%	0.00
2025 season	1/15	7%	0.07
At home	2/15	13%	0.13
On the road	3/17	18%	0.18
Vs LAR	0/1	0%	0.00
As an underdog	2/15	13%	0.13
Prime time	2/10	20%	0.20
With Jaxson Dart	0/1	0%	0.00

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Yes
MGM	—	+700
DK	—	+700
FD	—	+850

We have not seen a line for this yet.

Routes

Routes and coverage

2024–25 seasons · 175 targets with a route label

Weighted by where Darnell Mooney's targets come from, LAR has allowed 0.00 yds/target less than the league average on those routes. They play man on 37% of dropbacks (league 40%).

A description of how LAR's defense has fared, not a projection. Each defense number is pulled toward the league average in proportion to how few targets it rests on.

Route	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt	LAR allow
Deep out	34	50%	8.5(8.0)	+0.22	8.6
Hitch / curl	34	68%	8.5(6.8)	+0.44	6.9
Quick out	23	65%	5.1(5.5)	+0.23	5.2
In / dig	19	32%	5.3(9.6)	−0.17	9.0
Post	16	56%	13.9(12.3)	+0.92	11.0
Go	15	33%	13.1(9.9)	+0.64	9.7
Corner	13	38%	7.9(10.4)	+0.06	11.5
Screen	9	100%	2.3(5.8)	−0.49	6.4
Shallow cross	4	50%	7.8(6.5)	−0.34	6.9
Swing	3	67%	1.3(5.3)	−0.44	5.4
Wheel	3	67%	18.3(10.2)	+2.08	9.7
Slant	2	50%	3.5(7.2)	+0.23	7.2

Against man and zone

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Zone	101	58%	8.0	+0.24
Man	74	50%	8.5	+0.34

Against each coverage

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Cover 1	57	53%	8.7	+0.32
Cover 3	36	50%	6.8	+0.08
Cover 2	33	61%	6.6	−0.08
Cover 4	15	67%	10.9	+0.70
2-man	12	42%	5.1	+0.06
Cover 6	11	73%	10.1	+0.67
Cover 0	5	40%	15.4	+1.27
Cover 9	4	25%	7.5	+0.66

Routes are the ones the player was targetedon: nflverse labels the targeted receiver's route on about nine in ten targets, and routes run without a throw are not public, so this shows where a player's looks come from, not everything he ran. Yards per target in brackets is the league figure for that route. Rows with few targets are dimmed; small samples swing.

Game log

Game	Result	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Rec TD	Snap %
2026 W1 vs DALSep 13	W 28–20	2	2	27	0	57%
2025 W18 vs NOJan 4	W 19–17	7	3	20	0	83%
2025 W17 vs LARDec 29	W 27–24	3	2	35	0	70%
2025 W16 @ ARIDec 21	W 26–19	2	2	24	0	70%
2025 W15 @ TBDec 11	W 29–28	6	3	35	0	92%
2025 W14 vs SEADec 7	L 9–37	4	1	6	0	77%
2025 W13 @ NYJNov 30	L 24–27	5	2	25	0	96%
2025 W12 @ NONov 23	W 24–10	3	3	74	1	66%
2025 W11 vs CARNov 16	L 27–30	7	3	34	0	92%
2025 W10 @ INDNov 9	L 25–31	8	1	17	0	90%
2025 W9 @ NENov 2	L 23–24	2	1	15	0	100%
2025 W8 vs MIAOct 26	L 10–34	4	1	11	0	90%
2025 W7 @ SFOct 19	L 10–20	5	3	68	0	83%
2025 W4 vs WSHSep 28	W 34–27	1	1	15	0	45%
2025 W3 @ CARSep 21	L 0–30	11	4	44	0	89%
2025 W2 @ MINSep 14	W 22–6	4	2	20	0	86%

Prop lines come from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM through TheRundown and can lag what a book shows right now — check the book before you rely on a number. Splits count the games he played (snap counts show who was on the field) and describe the past; they are not a prediction. A game he played with no stat line counts as a zero; a game he sat out is left out, because books void the prop then. Stats and route labels from nflverse. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.