NFL · Props

Puka Nacua

WR · Los Angeles RamsQuestionable — Hip

Rush yds/g: 0.0
Rec/g: 5.0
Rec yds/g: 74.0
Targets/g: 9.0
2026 games: 1

Props this week

Rec yds 84.5

Over -110 · Under -114 · books price the over at 50%

LAR vs NYG · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · favored by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 11 days rest

NYG allows the 11th-most receiving yards to WRs (148 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

What if the line were84.5

20 of 33 over61%range 46–73%avg 71% of snapsbooks price 50% at 84.5 (-110 DK)

Middle half of these games: 64–123 · median 97 · range 11–225

Projected range · contextmedian 84middle half 50–12880% range 27–168

How his rec yds tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

Nacua's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	32.7%	33.3%	33.3%	31.3%
Targets a game	11.0	12.0	9.0	10.9
Snap share	79.7%	76.8%	70.0%	70.5%

Driver	LAR offense	NYG defense faces
Dropbacks per game	37.4 #11	36.5 #14
Pass rate over expected	+4.6 #3	+0.1 #17
Neutral-script pass rate	59.2% #6	56.1% #8
Dropback success rate	52.0% #2	45.8% #17

Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Throw quality

Passes to him	Nacua	League	LAR offense	NYG defense faces
Catchable-target rate	78.8%	68.1%	69.4% #7	71.9% #8
Drop rate	3.5%	5.5%	5.5% #15	8.0% #2
Contested-target rate	14.0%	13.0%	15.3% #6	14.7% #8
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	22.4% #31	29.8% #19

His last 17 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Market curve vs his games

● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number

Number	Best over	Books price	His games
	-1400 FD	93%*	91% (30/33)
	-600 FD	86%*	85% (28/33)
	-340 FD	77%*	76% (25/33)
	-215 FD	68%*	73% (24/33)
	-140 FD	58%*	61% (20/33)
main	-110 DK	50%	61% (20/33)
main	-115 MGM	50%	58% (19/33)
	+104 FD	49%*	58% (19/33)
	+148 FD	41%*	39% (13/33)
	+200 FD	33%*	36% (12/33)
	+320 FD	24%*	24% (8/33)
	+680 FD	13%*	18% (6/33)
	+1280 FD	7%*	6% (2/33)

* A one-sided price includes the book's margin, which is larger on far alternates, so the probability reads a little high. Numbers a book has not refreshed in a while, and old main lines it has moved off, are left out.

Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 7 of his team's games in this span (Oct 19 at JAX, Jan 5 vs SEA, Oct 20 vs LV, Oct 6 vs GB, …); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	2/5	40%	96.4	76
Last 10	5/10	50%	117.4	93.5
2026 season	0/1	0%	74.0	74
2025 season	12/19	63%	107.7	95
At home	11/15	73%	109.3	98
On the road	9/18	50%	89.6	81.5
As a favorite	12/23	52%	91.0	85
Long rest	1/5	20%	47.4	47
Prime time	8/12	67%	96.2	97
With Matthew Stafford	20/33	61%	98.5	97
Vs middling defenses	3/7	43%	85.7	76
Without Jordan Whittington (Doubtful)	3/5	60%	84.2	106
With Jordan Whittington	17/28	61%	101.1	96

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	86.5	-115	-115
DK	84.5	-110	-114
FD	84.5	-114	-114

Steady at 84.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Receptions 6.5

Over -115 · Under +100 · books price the over at 52%

LAR vs NYG · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · favored by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 11 days rest

NYG allows the 13th-most receptions to WRs (12 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

What if the line were6.5

22 of 33 over67%range 52–78%avg 71% of snapsbooks price 52% at 6.5 (-115 MGM)

Middle half of these games: 5–10 · median 7 · range 1–13

Projected range · contextmedian 6.2middle half 4.1–8.680% range 2.5–11.1

How his receptions tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

Nacua's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	32.7%	33.3%	33.3%	31.3%
Targets a game	11.0	12.0	9.0	10.9
Snap share	79.7%	76.8%	70.0%	70.5%

Driver	LAR offense	NYG defense faces
Dropbacks per game	37.4 #11	36.5 #14
Pass rate over expected	+4.6 #3	+0.1 #17
Neutral-script pass rate	59.2% #6	56.1% #8
Dropback success rate	52.0% #2	45.8% #17

Throw quality

Passes to him	Nacua	League	LAR offense	NYG defense faces
Catchable-target rate	78.8%	68.1%	69.4% #7	71.9% #8
Drop rate	3.5%	5.5%	5.5% #15	8.0% #2
Contested-target rate	14.0%	13.0%	15.3% #6	14.7% #8
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	22.4% #31	29.8% #19

Market curve vs his games

● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number

Number	Best over	Books price	His games
	-1450 FD	94%*	94% (31/33)
	-500 FD	83%*	91% (30/33)
	-250 FD	71%*	73% (24/33)
main	-115 MGM	52%	67% (22/33)
	+140 FD	42%*	45% (15/33)
	+230 FD	30%*	39% (13/33)
	+390 FD	20%*	27% (9/33)
	+640 FD	14%*	12% (4/33)
	+920 FD	10%*	9% (3/33)
	+1500 FD	6%*	3% (1/33)

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	3/5	60%	7.8	9
Last 10	6/10	60%	7.8	8
2026 season	0/1	0%	5.0	5
2025 season	14/19	74%	8.1	8
At home	13/15	87%	8.7	9
On the road	9/18	50%	6.6	6.5
As a favorite	15/23	65%	7.2	7
Long rest	2/5	40%	4.6	5
Prime time	8/12	67%	7.5	7
With Matthew Stafford	22/33	67%	7.5	7
Vs middling defenses	7/12	58%	7.3	7
Without Jordan Whittington (Doubtful)	4/5	80%	7.4	9
With Jordan Whittington	18/28	64%	7.5	7

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	6.5	-115	-115
DK	6.5	-128	+100
FD	6.5	-130	-102

Steady at 6.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Anytime TD

Yes +100 · books price yes at 50%

LAR vs NYG · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · favored by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 11 days rest

Teammate

14 of 33 scored42%range 29–57%avg 71% of snapsbooks price 50%

Volume drivers and his share

Nacua's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Touch share	19.7%	21.2%	16.1%	19.0%
Touches a game	12.0	13.3	9.0	11.8
Snap share	79.7%	76.8%	70.0%	70.5%

Each bar is measured against a touchdown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 7 of his team's games in this span (Oct 19 at JAX, Jan 5 vs SEA, Oct 20 vs LV, Oct 6 vs GB, …); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Scored	Rate	TDs/game
Last 5	3/5	60%	0.60
Last 10	6/10	60%	0.60
2026 season	0/1	0%	0.00
2025 season	11/19	58%	0.58
At home	5/15	33%	0.33
On the road	9/18	50%	0.50
As a favorite	11/23	48%	0.48
Long rest	2/5	40%	0.40
Prime time	3/12	25%	0.25
With Matthew Stafford	14/33	42%	0.42
Without Jordan Whittington (Doubtful)	2/5	40%	0.40
With Jordan Whittington	12/28	43%	0.43

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Yes
MGM	—	+100
DK	—	+100
FD	—	-105

We have not seen a line for this yet.

Routes

Routes and coverage

2024–25 seasons · 335 targets with a route label

Weighted by where Puka Nacua's targets come from, NYG has allowed 0.11 yds/target more than the league average on those routes. They play man on 45% of dropbacks (league 40%).

A description of how NYG's defense has fared, not a projection. Each defense number is pulled toward the league average in proportion to how few targets it rests on.

Route	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt	NYG allow
Hitch / curl	52	83%	8.7(6.8)	+0.60	6.7
Screen	44	86%	7.7(5.8)	+0.32	6.1
In / dig	40	80%	13.2(9.6)	+0.86	9.4
Quick out	37	76%	5.9(5.5)	+0.18	5.1
Go	36	36%	10.8(9.9)	+0.50	10.8
Deep out	33	64%	9.3(8.0)	+0.39	8.3
Shallow cross	31	71%	7.0(6.5)	+0.29	6.2
Post	23	61%	17.2(12.3)	+1.09	12.2
Slant	22	86%	7.1(7.2)	+0.95	6.8
Corner	9	56%	14.1(10.4)	+0.74	13.1
Swing	7	100%	5.7(5.3)	+0.19	5.4
Wheel	1	0%	0.0(10.2)	−0.27	10.8

Against man and zone

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Zone	200	72%	9.8	+0.59
Man	135	73%	8.9	+0.46

Against each coverage

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Cover 1	104	72%	9.4	+0.40
Cover 3	73	86%	11.5	+0.82
Cover 2	69	65%	8.7	+0.42
Cover 4	29	66%	9.7	+0.56
Cover 6	18	50%	7.4	+0.36
Cover 0	16	69%	5.9	+0.79
2-man	15	80%	8.8	+0.56
Cover 9	9	67%	11.2	+0.77

Routes are the ones the player was targetedon: nflverse labels the targeted receiver's route on about nine in ten targets, and routes run without a throw are not public, so this shows where a player's looks come from, not everything he ran. Yards per target in brackets is the league figure for that route. Rows with few targets are dimmed; small samples swing.

Game log

Game	Result	Car	Rush yds	Rush TD	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Rec TD	Snap %
2026 W1 vs SFSep 10	L 7–27	0	0	0	9	5	74	0	70%
2025 W21 · playoffs @ SEAJan 25	L 27–31	1	4	0	14	9	165	1	79%
2025 W20 · playoffs @ CHIJan 18	W 20–17	2	6	0	10	5	56	0	90%
2025 W19 · playoffs @ CARJan 10	W 34–31	3	14	1	18	10	111	1	79%
2025 W18 vs ARIJan 4	W 37–20	2	24	0	11	10	76	1	69%
2025 W17 @ ATLDec 29	L 24–27	0	0	0	10	5	47	1	74%
2025 W16 @ SEADec 18	L 37–38	0	0	0	16	12	225	2	78%
2025 W15 vs DETDec 14	W 41–34	2	8	0	11	9	181	0	56%
2025 W14 @ ARIDec 7	W 45–17	0	0	0	11	7	167	2	44%
2025 W13 @ CARNov 30	L 28–31	0	0	0	9	6	72	0	73%
2025 W12 vs TBNov 23	W 34–7	0	0	0	11	7	97	0	82%
2025 W11 vs SEANov 16	W 21–19	2	18	0	8	7	75	0	67%
2025 W10 @ SFNov 9	W 42–26	0	0	0	6	5	64	1	52%
2025 W9 vs NONov 2	W 34–10	1	3	0	8	7	95	1	49%
2025 W6 @ BALOct 12	W 17–3	0	0	0	3	2	28	0	51%
2025 W5 vs SFOct 2	L 23–26	0	0	0	12	10	85	1	93%
2025 W4 vs INDSep 28	W 27–20	0	0	0	15	13	170	1	81%
2025 W3 @ PHISep 21	L 26–33	1	6	0	15	11	112	0	91%
2025 W2 @ TENSep 14	W 33–19	1	45	1	9	8	91	0	69%
2025 W1 vs HOUSep 7	W 14–9	1	1	0	11	10	130	0	63%

Prop lines come from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM through TheRundown and can lag what a book shows right now — check the book before you rely on a number. Splits count the games he played (snap counts show who was on the field) and describe the past; they are not a prediction. A game he played with no stat line counts as a zero; a game he sat out is left out, because books void the prop then. Stats and route labels from nflverse. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.