Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Javad Mahjoub vs Louie Sutherland

5:00 PM ET· scheduled
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Thin market — no sportsbook has priced this fight. Every probability below is model-only, with nothing to check it against.
Model pickThe fight model's single most likely outcome: predicted winner, their most likely method of victory, and whether it ends inside the distance. Full probability breakdown below.
Javad Mahjoubby KO/TKO~ Round 1
59% to win · 24% that it’s by KO/TKO · 59% it ends inside the distance, most likely around Round 1
Model fair price -141
Probetrics fight model
Louie Sutherland
41% +141
Javad Mahjoub
59% -141
How it ends
Sutherland by KO/TKO
14.5%
fair +591
Sutherland by SUB
6.3%
fair +1493
Sutherland by DEC
20.7%
fair +382
Mahjoub by KO/TKO
24.2%
fair +314
Mahjoub by SUB
14.2%
fair +606
Mahjoub by DEC
20.2%
fair +396

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R131.9%fair +214
Ends in R217.5%fair +470
Ends in R39.6%fair +936
Goes distance40.9%fair +144
How this fight plays out

The model makes Mahjoub a solid 59% favorite. Expect Sutherland to chase the takedown (3.2/15 min at 40%) while Mahjoub tries to keep it standing. Mahjoub is most dangerous early — 4 of 5 tracked wins ended in the first round. Mahjoub's most likely path is by KO/TKO (24%), and the fight goes the distance 41% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.