Erick Visconde vs Ilias Bulaid
7:00 PM ET· scheduledLate replacement — this matchup was made 7 days out— the model prices time since a fighter's last bout, never how long they had to prepare for this one. The books do price it, so treat any gap between us and them on this fight as our blind spot, not their mistake.
Thin market — no sportsbook has priced this fight. Every probability below is model-only, with nothing to check it against.
Model pickThe fight model's single most likely outcome: predicted winner, their most likely method of victory, and whether it ends inside the distance. Full probability breakdown below.
Ilias Bulaidby DEC
57% to win · 27% that it’s by DEC · 52% this goes the distance
Model fair price -130
Probetrics fight model
Ilias Bulaid
57% -130
Erick Visconde
43% +130
How it ends
Bulaid by KO/TKO
17.1%
fair +486
Bulaid by SUB
12.1%
fair +727
Bulaid by DEC
27.4%
fair +264
Visconde by KO/TKO
16.1%
fair +523
Visconde by SUB
2.6%
fair +3689
Visconde by DEC
24.7%
fair +305
“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
When it ends
Ends in R125.8%fair +287
Ends in R214.2%fair +604
Ends in R37.8%fair +1180
Goes distance52.2%fair -109
How this fight plays out
The model makes Bulaid a narrow 57% favorite. Bulaid is most dangerous early — 5 of 9 tracked wins ended in the first round. Bulaid's most likely path is on the scorecards (27%), and the fight goes the distance 52% of the time.
Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.