Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Bernardo Sopaj vs Marcus McGhee

6:00 PM ET· scheduled
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Thin market — no sportsbook has priced this fight. Every probability below is model-only, with nothing to check it against.
Model pickThe fight model's single most likely outcome: predicted winner, their most likely method of victory, and whether it ends inside the distance. Full probability breakdown below.
Bernardo Sopajby DEC
59% to win · 24% that it’s by DEC · 47% this goes the distance
Model fair price -143
Probetrics fight model
Marcus McGhee
41% +143
Bernardo Sopaj
59% -143
How it ends
McGhee by KO/TKO
13.7%
fair +631
McGhee by SUB
4.3%
fair +2213
McGhee by DEC
23.1%
fair +332
Sopaj by KO/TKO
15.6%
fair +540
Sopaj by SUB
19.1%
fair +422
Sopaj by DEC
24.1%
fair +315

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R128.5%fair +251
Ends in R215.7%fair +538
Ends in R38.6%fair +1060
Goes distance47.2%fair +112
How this fight plays out

The model makes Sopaj a solid 59% favorite. Expect Sopaj to chase the takedown (2.1/15 min at 60%) while McGhee tries to keep it standing behind 90% takedown defense. Sopaj's most likely path is on the scorecards (24%), and the fight goes the distance 47% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.