Probetrics — Sports Analytics

Malachi Fields

WR · New York Giants

Props this week

Rec yds 26.5

Over -113 · Under -113 · books price the over at 50%
NYG at LAR · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · underdog by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 8 days rest
LAR allows the 9th-most receiving yards to WRs (154 a game over its last 17)
26.5
0 of 1 over0%range 073%books price 50% at 26.5 (-113 FD)

Only 1 game: a small sample, so treat the rate loosely.

2026 wk 1 · Sep 13 vs DAL: 25 · 50 snaps (72%)25202626.5
Volume drivers and his share
Fields's roleLast 3Last 620262025
Target share13.8%13.8%13.8%
Targets a game4.04.04.0
Snap share72.0%72.0%72.0%
DriverNYG offenseLAR defense faces
Dropbacks per game36.0 #1839.8 #4
Pass rate over expected−2.7 #26−0.7 #22
Neutral-script pass rate49.2% #2955.1% #15
Dropback success rate45.3% #1646.4% #13

Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Throw quality
Passes to himFieldsLeagueNYG offenseLAR defense faces
Catchable-target rate50.0%68.1%67.9% #1669.5% #16
Drop rate0.0%5.5%5.6% #136.0% #13
Contested-target rate0.0%13.0%12.2% #2212.8% #15
Pressure on his QB29.7%31.1% #1032.5% #7

His last 1 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Market curve vs his games0%50%100%24.527.574.5

books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · his games over that number

NumberBest overBooks priceHis games
main-115 MGM50%100% (1/1)
main-113 FD50%0% (0/1)
main-111 DK50%0% (0/1)
+825 MGM11%*0% (0/1)

* A one-sided price includes the book's margin, which is larger on far alternates, so the probability reads a little high. Numbers a book has not refreshed in a while, and old main lines it has moved off, are left out.

Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero.

SplitOverRate
Last 50/10%
Last 100/10%
2026 season0/10%
At home0/10%
As an underdog0/10%
Prime time0/10%
With Jaxson Dart0/10%
Vs soft defenses0/10%
Books and line movement
BookLineOverUnder
MGM24.5-115-115
DK27.5-111-113
FD26.5-113-113

Steady at 26.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Receptions 2.5

Over +115 · Under -147 · books price the over at 44%
NYG at LAR · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · underdog by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 8 days rest
LAR allows the 10th-most receptions to WRs (12 a game over its last 17)
2.5
0 of 1 over0%range 073%books price 44% at 2.5 (+115 MGM)

Only 1 game: a small sample, so treat the rate loosely.

2026 wk 1 · Sep 13 vs DAL: 2 · 50 snaps (72%)220262.5
Volume drivers and his share
Fields's roleLast 3Last 620262025
Target share13.8%13.8%13.8%
Targets a game4.04.04.0
Snap share72.0%72.0%72.0%
DriverNYG offenseLAR defense faces
Dropbacks per game36.0 #1839.8 #4
Pass rate over expected−2.7 #26−0.7 #22
Neutral-script pass rate49.2% #2955.1% #15
Dropback success rate45.3% #1646.4% #13

Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Throw quality
Passes to himFieldsLeagueNYG offenseLAR defense faces
Catchable-target rate50.0%68.1%67.9% #1669.5% #16
Drop rate0.0%5.5%5.6% #136.0% #13
Contested-target rate0.0%13.0%12.2% #2212.8% #15
Pressure on his QB29.7%31.1% #1032.5% #7

His last 1 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero.

SplitOverRate
Last 50/10%
Last 100/10%
2026 season0/10%
At home0/10%
As an underdog0/10%
Prime time0/10%
With Jaxson Dart0/10%
Vs soft defenses0/10%
Books and line movement
BookLineOverUnder
MGM2.5+115-155
DK2.5+115-147
FD2.5+112-148

Steady at 2.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Anytime TD

Yes +450 · books price yes at 19%
NYG at LAR · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · underdog by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 8 days rest
0 of 1 scored0%range 073%books price 19%

Only 1 game: a small sample, so treat the rate loosely.

2026 wk 1 · Sep 13 vs DAL: 0 · 50 snaps (72%)02026
Volume drivers and his share
Fields's roleLast 3Last 620262025
Touch share6.1%6.1%6.1%
Touches a game4.04.04.0
Snap share72.0%72.0%72.0%

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Each bar is measured against a touchdown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero.

SplitScoredRate
Last 50/10%
Last 100/10%
2026 season0/10%
At home0/10%
As an underdog0/10%
Prime time0/10%
With Jaxson Dart0/10%
Books and line movement
BookLineYes
MGM+400
DK+425
FD+450

We have not seen a line for this yet.

Game log

GameResultSnap %
2026 W1 vs DALSep 13W 282072%

Prop lines come from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM through TheRundown and can lag what a book shows right now — check the book before you rely on a number. Splits count the games he played (snap counts show who was on the field) and describe the past; they are not a prediction. A game he played with no stat line counts as a zero; a game he sat out is left out, because books void the prop then. Stats and route labels from nflverse. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.