NFL · Props

Malik Nabers

WR · New York Giants

Rec/g: 6.0
Rec yds/g: 69.0
Targets/g: 9.0
2026 games: 1

Props this week

Rec yds 65.5

Over -113 · Under -113 · books price the over at 50% · moved 63.5 → 65.5

NYG at LAR · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · underdog by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 8 days rest

LAR allows the 9th-most receiving yards to WRs (154 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

What if the line were65.5

13 of 20 over65%range 47–80%avg 86% of snapsbooks price 50% at 65.5 (-113 FD)

Middle half of these games: 62.8–79.8 · median 69 · range 13–171

Projected range · contextmedian 63middle half 37–9580% range 20–125

How his rec yds tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

Nabers's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	24.1%	29.1%	31.0%	28.7%
Targets a game	6.3	8.7	9.0	8.8
Snap share	59.0%	73.3%	52.0%	79.5%

Driver	NYG offense	LAR defense faces
Dropbacks per game	36.0 #18	39.8 #4
Pass rate over expected	−2.7 #26	−0.7 #22
Neutral-script pass rate	49.2% #29	55.1% #15
Dropback success rate	45.3% #16	46.4% #13

Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Throw quality

Passes to him	Nabers	League	NYG offense	LAR defense faces
Catchable-target rate	58.1%	68.1%	67.9% #16	69.5% #16
Drop rate	0.0%	5.5%	5.6% #13	6.0% #13
Contested-target rate	11.6%	13.0%	12.2% #22	12.8% #15
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	31.1% #10	32.5% #7

His last 5 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Market curve vs his games

● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number

Number	Best over	Books price	His games
	-1450 FD	95%*	90% (18/20)
	-1000 FD	91%*	90% (18/20)
	-440 FD	81%*	90% (18/20)
	-245 FD	72%*	85% (17/20)
main	-115 MGM	50%	65% (13/20)
main	-113 FD	50%	65% (13/20)
main	-110 DK	50%	60% (12/20)
	+104 FD	49%*	45% (9/20)
	+120 MGM	45%*	35% (7/20)
	+158 FD	39%*	25% (5/20)
	+220 FD	31%*	20% (4/20)
	+310 FD	24%*	20% (4/20)
	+430 FD	19%*	20% (4/20)
	+680 FD	13%*	15% (3/20)
	+1280 FD	7%*	10% (2/20)

* A one-sided price includes the book's margin, which is larger on far alternates, so the probability reads a little high. Numbers a book has not refreshed in a while, and old main lines it has moved off, are left out.

Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 2 of his team's games in this span (Oct 13 vs CIN, Oct 6 at SEA); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	3/5	60%	68.0	69
Last 10	7/10	70%	80.4	70
2026 season	1/1	100%	69.0	69
2025 season	2/4	50%	67.8	45.5
At home	6/11	55%	70.8	66
On the road	7/9	78%	85.0	71
As an underdog	13/19	68%	78.6	69
Prime time	3/4	75%	67.0	70
With Jaxson Dart	1/2	50%	44.5	44.5
Vs soft defenses	8/12	67%	75.9	68.5

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	64.5	-115	-115
DK	66.5	-110	-114
FD	65.5	-113	-113

Sep 21, 1:43 AM ET65.5▲ 2
Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET63.5first seen

Receptions 5.5

Over -107 · Under -114 · books price the over at 49%

NYG at LAR · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · underdog by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 8 days rest

LAR allows the 10th-most receptions to WRs (12 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

What if the line were5.5

13 of 20 over65%range 47–80%avg 86% of snapsbooks price 49% at 5.5 (-107 DK)

Middle half of these games: 5–8.3 · median 6.5 · range 2–12

Projected range · contextmedian 5middle half 3.3–6.980% range 2–8.9

How his receptions tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

Nabers's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	24.1%	29.1%	31.0%	28.7%
Targets a game	6.3	8.7	9.0	8.8
Snap share	59.0%	73.3%	52.0%	79.5%

Driver	NYG offense	LAR defense faces
Dropbacks per game	36.0 #18	39.8 #4
Pass rate over expected	−2.7 #26	−0.7 #22
Neutral-script pass rate	49.2% #29	55.1% #15
Dropback success rate	45.3% #16	46.4% #13

Throw quality

Passes to him	Nabers	League	NYG offense	LAR defense faces
Catchable-target rate	58.1%	68.1%	67.9% #16	69.5% #16
Drop rate	0.0%	5.5%	5.6% #13	6.0% #13
Contested-target rate	11.6%	13.0%	12.2% #22	12.8% #15
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	31.1% #10	32.5% #7

Market curve vs his games

● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number

Number	Best over	Books price	His games
	-245 FD	71%*	85% (17/20)
main	-107 DK	49%	65% (13/20)
	+162 FD	38%*	50% (10/20)
	+470 FD	18%*	25% (5/20)
	+750 FD	12%*	15% (3/20)
	+1200 FD	8%*	5% (1/20)

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	2/5	40%	4.8	5
Last 10	5/10	50%	5.8	5.5
2026 season	1/1	100%	6.0	6
2025 season	1/4	25%	4.5	3.5
At home	6/11	55%	6.2	6
On the road	7/9	78%	7.2	7
As an underdog	12/19	63%	6.7	7
Prime time	3/4	75%	6.8	6.5
With Jaxson Dart	1/2	50%	4.0	4
Vs soft defenses	8/12	67%	6.7	6.5

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	5.5	-110	-120
DK	5.5	-107	-119
FD	5.5	-114	-114

Steady at 5.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Anytime TD

Yes +190 · books price yes at 35%

NYG at LAR · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · underdog by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 8 days rest

Teammate

6 of 20 scored30%range 16–48%avg 86% of snapsbooks price 35%

Volume drivers and his share

Nabers's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Touch share	10.3%	14.7%	13.6%	14.9%
Touches a game	6.3	8.7	9.0	8.8
Snap share	59.0%	73.3%	52.0%	79.5%

Each bar is measured against a touchdown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 2 of his team's games in this span (Oct 13 vs CIN, Oct 6 at SEA); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Scored	Rate	TDs/game
Last 5	1/5	20%	0.20
Last 10	4/10	40%	0.40
2026 season	0/1	0%	0.00
2025 season	1/4	25%	0.25
At home	2/11	18%	0.18
On the road	4/9	44%	0.44
As an underdog	6/19	32%	0.32
Prime time	0/4	0%	0.00
With Jaxson Dart	0/2	0%	0.00

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Yes
MGM	—	+180
DK	—	+190
FD	—	+190

We have not seen a line for this yet.

Routes

Routes and coverage

2024–25 seasons · 206 targets with a route label

Weighted by where Malik Nabers's targets come from, LAR has allowed 0.03 yds/target less than the league average on those routes. They play man on 37% of dropbacks (league 40%).

A description of how LAR's defense has fared, not a projection. Each defense number is pulled toward the league average in proportion to how few targets it rests on.

Route	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt	LAR allow
Hitch / curl	50	74%	7.8(6.8)	+0.38	6.9
Go	41	37%	9.2(9.9)	+0.33	9.7
Quick out	24	79%	3.6(5.5)	+0.05	5.2
Screen	18	72%	4.3(5.8)	+0.01	6.4
Deep out	17	65%	8.8(8.0)	+0.64	8.6
In / dig	14	50%	6.4(9.6)	−0.32	9.0
Shallow cross	13	62%	5.2(6.5)	−0.12	6.9
Slant	13	77%	6.2(7.2)	+0.41	7.2
Post	12	42%	7.3(12.3)	−0.11	11.0
Corner	4	50%	17.5(10.4)	+1.59	11.5

Against man and zone

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Zone	104	64%	7.9	+0.24
Man	102	59%	6.5	+0.24

Against each coverage

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Cover 1	82	62%	6.3	+0.18
Cover 3	41	66%	8.1	+0.30
Cover 2	38	63%	5.6	−0.13
Cover 4	14	71%	11.4	+0.82
2-man	10	60%	9.1	+0.51
Cover 0	10	30%	5.1	+0.48
Cover 6	6	33%	11.7	+0.56
Cover 9	2	50%	3.0	+0.00

Routes are the ones the player was targetedon: nflverse labels the targeted receiver's route on about nine in ten targets, and routes run without a throw are not public, so this shows where a player's looks come from, not everything he ran. Yards per target in brackets is the league figure for that route. Rows with few targets are dimmed; small samples swing.

Game log

Game	Result	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Rec TD	Snap %
2026 W1 vs DALSep 13	W 28–20	9	6	69	0	52%
2025 W4 vs LACSep 28	W 21–18	3	2	20	0	33%
2025 W3 vs KCSep 21	L 9–22	7	2	13	0	92%
2025 W2 @ DALSep 14	L 37–40	13	9	167	2	99%
2025 W1 @ WSHSep 7	L 6–21	12	5	71	0	94%

Prop lines come from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM through TheRundown and can lag what a book shows right now — check the book before you rely on a number. Splits count the games he played (snap counts show who was on the field) and describe the past; they are not a prediction. A game he played with no stat line counts as a zero; a game he sat out is left out, because books void the prop then. Stats and route labels from nflverse. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.