NFL · Props

Parker Washington

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rush yds/g: 0.0
Rec/g: 6.0
Rec yds/g: 90.5
Targets/g: 9.0
2026 games: 2

Props this week

Rec yds 59.5

Over -106 · Under -110 · books price the over at 50%

JAX at DEN · Sun, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET · underdog by 2.5 · total 45.5 · wind 7 mph · 7 days rest · final: 98 (over)

DEN allows the 7th-fewest receiving yards to WRs (124 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

Score against

What if the line were59.5

10 of 36 over28%range 17–41%avg 59% of snapsbooks price 50% at 59.5 (-106 FD)

Middle half of these games: 8.3–72.3 · median 32 · range 0–145

Projected range · contextmedian 57middle half 34–8780% range 18.4–115

How his rec yds tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

Washington's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	38.5%	32.6%	37.5%	21.4%
Targets a game	10.0	9.8	9.0	6.3
Snap share	71.0%	70.7%	71.0%	61.9%

Driver	JAX offense	DEN defense faces
Dropbacks per game	36.1 #17	39.9 #3
Pass rate over expected	+3.0 #7	+2.0 #9
Neutral-script pass rate	59.7% #5	57.6% #4
Dropback success rate	48.5% #8	38.1% #31

Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Throw quality

Passes to him	Washington	League	JAX offense	DEN defense faces
Catchable-target rate	66.1%	68.1%	67.5% #19	60.3% #31
Drop rate	6.9%	5.5%	7.8% #3	7.6% #3
Contested-target rate	20.2%	13.0%	13.7% #16	11.5% #25
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	30.0% #16	32.8% #5

His last 17 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 1 of his team's games in this span (Dec 7 vs IND); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	5/5	100%	98.0	98
Last 10	7/10	70%	80.5	85
2026 season	2/2	100%	90.5	90.5
2025 season	7/17	41%	56.1	52
At home	4/18	22%	39.7	32.5
On the road	6/18	33%	45.0	29.5
Vs DEN	2/2	100%	121.5	121.5
As an underdog	4/21	19%	39.3	29
With Trevor Lawrence	10/29	34%	46.4	34
Vs tough defenses	4/15	27%	42.7	33

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	59.5	-115	-115
DK	59.5	-114	-110
FD	59.5	-106	-113

Steady at 59.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Receptions 4.5

Over -119 · Under +100 · books price the over at 52%

JAX at DEN · Sun, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET · underdog by 2.5 · total 45.5 · wind 7 mph · 7 days rest · final: 7 (over)

DEN allows the 15th-fewest receptions to WRs (11 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

Score against

What if the line were4.5

11 of 36 over31%range 20–44%avg 59% of snapsbooks price 52% at 4.5 (-119 DK)

Middle half of these games: 1–5 · median 3 · range 0–8

Projected range · contextmedian 4.7middle half 3.1–6.680% range 1.9–8.5

How his receptions tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

Washington's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	38.5%	32.6%	37.5%	21.4%
Targets a game	10.0	9.8	9.0	6.3
Snap share	71.0%	70.7%	71.0%	61.9%

Driver	JAX offense	DEN defense faces
Dropbacks per game	36.1 #17	39.9 #3
Pass rate over expected	+3.0 #7	+2.0 #9
Neutral-script pass rate	59.7% #5	57.6% #4
Dropback success rate	48.5% #8	38.1% #31

Throw quality

Passes to him	Washington	League	JAX offense	DEN defense faces
Catchable-target rate	66.1%	68.1%	67.5% #19	60.3% #31
Drop rate	6.9%	5.5%	7.8% #3	7.6% #3
Contested-target rate	20.2%	13.0%	13.7% #16	11.5% #25
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	30.0% #16	32.8% #5

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	5/5	100%	6.4	7
Last 10	7/10	70%	4.9	5
2026 season	2/2	100%	6.0	6
2025 season	7/17	41%	3.8	4
At home	4/18	22%	2.7	3
On the road	7/18	39%	3.3	2.5
Vs DEN	2/2	100%	6.5	6.5
As an underdog	5/21	24%	2.9	2
With Trevor Lawrence	10/29	34%	3.2	3
Vs middling defenses	3/12	25%	2.8	2.5

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	4.5	-135	+100
DK	4.5	-119	-108
FD	4.5	-122	-108

Steady at 4.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Anytime TD

Yes +210 · books price yes at 34%

JAX at DEN · Sun, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET · underdog by 2.5 · total 45.5 · wind 7 mph · 7 days rest · final: 0 (no)

Teammate

Score against

10 of 36 scored28%range 17–41%avg 59% of snapsbooks price 34%

Volume drivers and his share

Washington's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Touch share	20.5%	18.3%	17.5%	11.8%
Touches a game	10.7	10.3	9.0	6.8
Snap share	71.0%	70.7%	71.0%	61.9%

Each bar is measured against a touchdown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 1 of his team's games in this span (Dec 7 vs IND); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Scored	Rate	TDs/game
Last 5	3/5	60%	0.60
Last 10	5/10	50%	0.50
2026 season	1/2	50%	0.50
2025 season	6/17	35%	0.35
At home	6/18	33%	0.33
On the road	4/18	22%	0.22
Vs DEN	1/2	50%	0.50
As an underdog	5/21	24%	0.24
With Trevor Lawrence	8/29	28%	0.28

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Yes
MGM	—	+175
FD	—	+210

We have not seen a line for this yet.

Routes

Routes and coverage

2024–25 seasons · 162 targets with a route label

Weighted by where Parker Washington's targets come from, DEN has allowed 0.35 yds/target less than the league average on those routes. They play man on 52% of dropbacks (league 40%).

A description of how DEN's defense has fared, not a projection. Each defense number is pulled toward the league average in proportion to how few targets it rests on.

Route	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt	DEN allow
Hitch / curl	32	75%	8.1(6.8)	+0.31	6.3
Deep out	25	48%	6.5(8.0)	+0.22	8.4
In / dig	25	64%	12.0(9.6)	+0.54	9.7
Quick out	21	71%	10.1(5.5)	+0.79	5.4
Go	15	13%	2.5(9.9)	−0.55	7.6
Post	15	40%	8.9(12.3)	−0.11	11.2
Slant	9	78%	10.2(7.2)	+0.59	7.4
Corner	7	57%	9.0(10.4)	+0.32	10.4
Screen	6	83%	3.2(5.8)	−0.41	5.2
Shallow cross	5	80%	9.6(6.5)	+0.36	6.3
Swing	1	100%	1.0(5.3)	−1.63	5.4
Wheel	1	100%	21.0(10.2)	+1.38	11.1

Against man and zone

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Zone	99	70%	9.6	+0.31
Man	63	44%	6.3	+0.19

Against each coverage

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Cover 1	47	40%	5.3	+0.01
Cover 2	40	75%	10.4	+0.33
Cover 3	37	62%	9.2	+0.32
Cover 4	15	80%	8.1	+0.18
Cover 0	10	80%	12.7	+1.59
2-man	6	17%	3.3	−0.77
Cover 6	5	60%	12.4	+0.63
Cover 9	1	0%	0.0	−1.14

Routes are the ones the player was targetedon: nflverse labels the targeted receiver's route on about nine in ten targets, and routes run without a throw are not public, so this shows where a player's looks come from, not everything he ran. Yards per target in brackets is the league figure for that route. Rows with few targets are dimmed; small samples swing.

Game log

Game	Result	Car	Rush yds	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Rec TD	Snap %
2026 W2 @ DENSep 20	L 13–20	0	0	12	7	98	0	81%
2026 W1 vs CLESep 13	W 34–10	0	0	6	5	83	1	61%
2025 W19 · playoffs vs BUFJan 11	L 24–27	2	2	12	7	107	1	71%
2025 W18 vs TENJan 4	W 41–7	0	0	9	5	87	1	74%
2025 W17 @ INDDec 28	W 23–17	1	-5	10	8	115	0	81%
2025 W16 @ DENDec 21	W 34–20	0	0	10	6	145	1	56%
2025 W15 vs NYJDec 14	W 48–20	0	0	3	3	53	0	45%
2025 W13 @ TENNov 30	W 25–3	0	0	3	1	26	0	38%
2025 W12 @ ARINov 23	W 27–24	0	0	7	5	71	1	84%
2025 W11 vs LACNov 16	W 35–6	0	0	2	2	20	0	76%
2025 W10 @ HOUNov 9	L 29–36	2	-4	7	3	33	1	87%
2025 W9 @ LVNov 2	W 30–29	0	0	9	8	90	0	88%
2025 W7 vs LAROct 19	L 7–35	3	10	10	4	52	0	88%
2025 W6 vs SEAOct 12	L 12–20	0	0	4	2	29	0	33%
2025 W5 vs KCOct 6	W 31–28	0	0	3	2	16	1	26%
2025 W4 @ SFSep 28	W 26–21	1	-1	2	0	0	0	85%
2025 W3 vs HOUSep 21	W 17–10	0	0	11	4	34	0	71%
2025 W2 @ CINSep 14	L 27–31	0	0	5	5	76	0	24%
2025 W1 vs CARSep 7	W 26–10	0	0	0	0	0	0	26%

Prop lines come from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM through TheRundown and can lag what a book shows right now — check the book before you rely on a number. Splits count the games he played (snap counts show who was on the field) and describe the past; they are not a prediction. A game he played with no stat line counts as a zero; a game he sat out is left out, because books void the prop then. Stats and route labels from nflverse. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.