NFL · Props

Kenneth Walker III

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rush yds/g: 145.0
Rec/g: 4.5
Rec yds/g: 39.5
Targets/g: 8.0
2026 games: 2

Props this week

Rush yds 83.5

Over -112 · Under -112 · books price the over at 50% · moved 81.5 → 83.5

KC vs IND · Sun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET · favored by 6.25 · total 46 · wind 6 mph · 6 days rest · final: 117 (over)

IND allows the 15th-fewest rushing yards to RBs (96 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

Score against

What if the line were83.5

9 of 33 over27%range 17–41%avg 56% of snapsbooks price 50% at 83.5 (-112 DK)

Middle half of these games: 38–86 · median 66 · range 12–173

Projected range · contextmedian 86middle half 52–12280% range 31–167

How his rush yds tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

III's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Carry share	75.5%	65.3%	71.2%	47.8%
Carries a game	24.7	21.3	23.5	14.3
Snap share	71.7%	63.7%	75.0%	49.3%

Driver	KC offense	IND defense faces
Rushes per game	22.8 #24	25.5 #11
Rush rate over expected	−5.8 #31	−2.1 #25
Early-down rush rate	39.7% #29	41.6% #28

Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Market curve vs his games

● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number

Number	Best over	Books price	His games
	-1600 FD	94%*	73% (24/33)
	-670 FD	89%*	64% (21/33)
	-340 FD	77%*	55% (18/33)
	-210 FD	68%*	39% (13/33)
	-200 MGM	67%*	36% (12/33)
main	-113 FD	50%	30% (10/33)
main	-112 DK	50%	27% (9/33)
main	-115 MGM	50%	27% (9/33)
	+118 FD	46%*	24% (8/33)
	+174 FD	39%*	21% (7/33)
	+250 FD	29%*	12% (4/33)
	+410 FD	21%*	6% (2/33)
	+880 FD	11%*	3% (1/33)
	+1700 FD	6%*	0% (0/33)

* A one-sided price includes the book's margin, which is larger on far alternates, so the probability reads a little high. Numbers a book has not refreshed in a while, and old main lines it has moved off, are left out.

Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 4 of his team's games in this span (Dec 15 vs GB, Dec 8 at ARI, Sep 22 vs MIA, Sep 15 at NE); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	4/5	80%	120.6	117
Last 10	6/10	60%	89.7	98.5
2026 season	2/2	100%	145.0	145
2025 season	6/20	30%	67.0	66.5
At home	6/19	32%	65.2	62
On the road	3/14	21%	68.9	68
Vs IND	1/2	50%	67.0	67
As a favorite	8/21	38%	74.3	67
Short rest	3/6	50%	74.3	89
Prime time	5/10	50%	90.4	89
With Patrick Mahomes	2/2	100%	145.0	145
Vs middling defenses	5/14	36%	71.4	75

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	84.5	-115	-115
DK	83.5	-112	-112
FD	81.5	-113	-113

Sep 20, 8:03 PM ET83.5▲ 2
Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET81.5first seen

Rec yds 20.5

Over -113 · Under -113 · books price the over at 50% · moved 21.5 → 20.5

KC vs IND · Sun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET · favored by 6.25 · total 46 · wind 6 mph · 6 days rest · final: 61 (over)

IND allows the 6th-fewest receiving yards to RBs (27 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

Score against

What if the line were20.5

17 of 33 over52%range 38–65%avg 56% of snapsbooks price 50% at 20.5 (-113 FD)

Middle half of these games: 5–36 · median 24 · range -3–64

Projected range · contextmedian 19.7middle half 7.1–3980% range 0–60

How his rec yds tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

III's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	19.2%	17.2%	23.5%	8.7%
Targets a game	6.7	5.2	8.0	2.4
Snap share	71.7%	63.7%	75.0%	49.3%

Driver	KC offense	IND defense faces
Dropbacks per game	40.4 #3	41.4 #1
Pass rate over expected	+5.8 #2	+2.1 #8
Neutral-script pass rate	60.1% #3	57.6% #3
Dropback success rate	46.4% #12	48.5% #10

Throw quality

Passes to him	III	League	KC offense	IND defense faces
Catchable-target rate	87.5%	68.1%	67.5% #20	69.8% #14
Drop rate	11.9%	5.5%	6.1% #10	5.9% #14
Contested-target rate	0.0%	13.0%	6.6% #32	12.9% #14
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	30.5% #12	29.8% #18

His last 17 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Market curve vs his games

● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number

Number	Best over	Books price	His games
	-900 FD	90%*	76% (25/33)
	-380 FD	79%*	67% (22/33)
	-210 FD	68%*	61% (20/33)
main	-116 DK	51%	52% (17/33)
main	-113 FD	50%	52% (17/33)
main	-120 MGM	51%	52% (17/33)
	+124 FD	48%*	45% (15/33)
	+182 FD	35%*	33% (11/33)
	+580 FD	16%*	12% (4/33)
	+1280 FD	7%*	0% (0/33)
	+1300 MGM	7%*	0% (0/33)
	+1900 MGM	5%*	0% (0/33)

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	4/5	80%	36.6	29
Last 10	6/10	60%	29.0	27.5
2026 season	1/2	50%	39.5	39.5
2025 season	8/20	40%	19.3	15.5
At home	10/19	53%	26.2	24
On the road	7/14	50%	19.1	21.5
Vs IND	1/2	50%	31.5	31.5
As a favorite	9/21	43%	22.2	18
Short rest	6/6	100%	47.3	47
Prime time	7/10	70%	32.9	32.5
With Patrick Mahomes	1/2	50%	39.5	39.5
Vs tough defenses	5/9	56%	24.1	24

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	21.5	-120	-110
DK	19.5	-116	-108
FD	20.5	-113	-113

Sep 20, 7:23 PM ET20.5▼ 1
Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET21.5first seen

Receptions 2.5

Over -175 · Under +130 · books price the over at 59% · moved 3.5 → 2.5

KC vs IND · Sun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET · favored by 6.25 · total 46 · wind 6 mph · 6 days rest · final: 6 (over)

IND allows the 11th-fewest receptions to RBs (4.0 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

Score against

What if the line were2.5

17 of 33 over52%range 38–65%avg 56% of snapsbooks price 59% at 2.5 (-175 MGM)

Middle half of these games: 1–4 · median 3 · range 0–8

Projected range · contextmedian 2.3middle half 1.1–4.180% range 0–5.5

How his receptions tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

III's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	19.2%	17.2%	23.5%	8.7%
Targets a game	6.7	5.2	8.0	2.4
Snap share	71.7%	63.7%	75.0%	49.3%

Driver	KC offense	IND defense faces
Dropbacks per game	40.4 #3	41.4 #1
Pass rate over expected	+5.8 #2	+2.1 #8
Neutral-script pass rate	60.1% #3	57.6% #3
Dropback success rate	46.4% #12	48.5% #10

Throw quality

Passes to him	III	League	KC offense	IND defense faces
Catchable-target rate	87.5%	68.1%	67.5% #20	69.8% #14
Drop rate	11.9%	5.5%	6.1% #10	5.9% #14
Contested-target rate	0.0%	13.0%	6.6% #32	12.9% #14
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	30.5% #12	29.8% #18

Market curve vs his games

● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number

Number	Best over	Books price	His games
	-580 FD	85%*	73% (24/33)
main	-175 MGM	59%	52% (17/33)
main	+144 DK	39%	27% (9/33)
	+260 FD	28%*	12% (4/33)
	+490 FD	17%*	12% (4/33)
	+1400 FD	7%*	6% (2/33)

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	4/5	80%	3.6	3
Last 10	6/10	60%	2.9	3
2026 season	2/2	100%	4.5	4.5
2025 season	8/20	40%	2.0	2
At home	13/19	68%	3.4	3
On the road	4/14	29%	2.1	2
Vs IND	1/2	50%	3.5	3.5
As a favorite	9/21	43%	2.4	2
Short rest	5/6	83%	4.8	5
Prime time	7/10	70%	3.4	3
With Patrick Mahomes	2/2	100%	4.5	4.5
Vs tough defenses	7/11	64%	3.5	3

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	2.5	-175	+130
DK	3.5	+144	-184
FD	2.5	-194	+120

Sep 20, 7:23 PM ET2.5▼ 1
Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET3.5first seen

Rush + rec yds 106.5

Over -113 · Under -112 · books price the over at 50% · moved 107.5 → 106.5

KC vs IND · Sun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET · favored by 6.25 · total 46 · wind 6 mph · 6 days rest · final: 178 (over)

IND allows the 13th-fewest rushing + receiving yards to RBs (123 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

Score against

What if the line were106.5

13 of 33 over39%range 27–54%avg 56% of snapsbooks price 50% at 106.5 (-113 DK)

Middle half of these games: 59–111 · median 86 · range 19–191

Projected range · contextmedian 102middle half 72–13980% range 47–174

How his rush + rec yds tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

III's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	19.2%	17.2%	23.5%	8.7%
Carry share	75.5%	65.3%	71.2%	47.8%
Touches a game	31.3	26.5	31.5	16.6
Snap share	71.7%	63.7%	75.0%	49.3%

Driver	KC offense	IND defense faces
Rushes per game	22.8 #24	25.5 #11
Rush rate over expected	−5.8 #31	−2.1 #25
Dropbacks per game	40.4 #3	41.4 #1
Pass rate over expected	+5.8 #2	+2.1 #8

Throw quality

Passes to him	III	League	KC offense	IND defense faces
Catchable-target rate	87.5%	68.1%	67.5% #20	69.8% #14
Drop rate	11.9%	5.5%	6.1% #10	5.9% #14
Contested-target rate	0.0%	13.0%	6.6% #32	12.9% #14
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	30.5% #12	29.8% #18

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	5/5	100%	157.2	161
Last 10	7/10	70%	118.7	139
2026 season	2/2	100%	184.5	184.5
2025 season	8/20	40%	86.3	80
At home	7/19	37%	91.4	76
On the road	6/14	43%	87.9	97
Vs IND	1/2	50%	98.5	98.5
As a favorite	9/21	43%	96.5	86
Short rest	4/6	67%	121.7	121.5
Prime time	7/10	70%	123.3	124.5
With Patrick Mahomes	2/2	100%	184.5	184.5
Vs middling defenses	3/11	27%	79.7	70

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
DK	106.5	-113	-112

Sep 20, 7:23 PM ET106.5▼ 2
Sep 20, 6:43 PM ET108.5▲ 2
Sep 20, 5:43 PM ET106.5▼ 1
Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET107.5first seen

Rush att 18.5

Over -115 · Under +101 · books price the over at 52%

KC vs IND · Sun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET · favored by 6.25 · total 46 · wind 6 mph · 6 days rest · final: 24 (over)

IND allows the 9th-most carries to RBs (23 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

Score against

What if the line were18.5

8 of 33 over24%range 14–38%avg 56% of snapsbooks price 52% at 18.5 (-115 MGM)

Middle half of these games: 11–17 · median 14 · range 5–27

Projected range · contextmedian 18.9middle half 13.5–2480% range 9.3–29

How his rush att tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

III's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Carry share	75.5%	65.3%	71.2%	47.8%
Carries a game	24.7	21.3	23.5	14.3
Snap share	71.7%	63.7%	75.0%	49.3%

Driver	KC offense	IND defense faces
Rushes per game	22.8 #24	25.5 #11
Rush rate over expected	−5.8 #31	−2.1 #25
Early-down rush rate	39.7% #29	41.6% #28

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	5/5	100%	22.4	23
Last 10	5/10	50%	17.3	17.5
2026 season	2/2	100%	23.5	23.5
2025 season	4/20	20%	14.3	13.5
At home	6/19	32%	14.8	14
On the road	2/14	14%	14.6	14
Vs IND	1/2	50%	16.5	16.5
As a favorite	7/21	33%	15.2	15
Short rest	2/6	33%	14.8	15
Prime time	4/10	40%	16.6	16.5
With Patrick Mahomes	2/2	100%	23.5	23.5
Vs soft defenses	0/10	0%	13.2	13.5

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	18.5	-115	-115
DK	18.5	-128	+101

Steady at 18.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Anytime TD

Yes -210 · books price yes at 68%

KC vs IND · Sun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET · favored by 6.25 · total 46 · wind 6 mph · 6 days rest · final: 0 (no)

Teammate

Score against

12 of 33 scored36%range 24–51%avg 56% of snapsbooks price 68%

Volume drivers and his share

III's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Touch share	46.5%	42.3%	47.0%	29.2%
Touches a game	31.3	26.5	31.5	16.6
Snap share	71.7%	63.7%	75.0%	49.3%

Each bar is measured against a touchdown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 4 of his team's games in this span (Dec 15 vs GB, Dec 8 at ARI, Sep 22 vs MIA, Sep 15 at NE); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Scored	Rate	TDs/game
Last 5	3/5	60%	0.60
Last 10	4/10	40%	0.40
2026 season	1/2	50%	0.50
2025 season	6/20	30%	0.30
At home	7/19	37%	0.37
On the road	5/14	36%	0.36
Vs IND	0/2	0%	0.00
As a favorite	6/21	29%	0.29
Short rest	2/6	33%	0.33
Prime time	5/10	50%	0.50
With Patrick Mahomes	1/2	50%	0.50

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Yes
MGM	—	-220
DK	—	-210
FD	—	-210

We have not seen a line for this yet.

Routes

Routes and coverage

2024–25 seasons · 100 targets with a route label

Weighted by where Kenneth Walker III's targets come from, IND has allowed 0.13 yds/target less than the league average on those routes. They play man on 39% of dropbacks (league 40%).

A description of how IND's defense has fared, not a projection. Each defense number is pulled toward the league average in proportion to how few targets it rests on.

Route	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt	IND allow
Screen	29	90%	7.8(5.8)	+0.13	5.5
Hitch / curl	22	86%	7.9(6.8)	+0.40	7.2
Swing	21	90%	3.6(5.3)	−0.14	4.5
Quick out	16	88%	8.0(5.5)	+0.39	5.5
Shallow cross	4	75%	3.8(6.5)	−0.35	6.1
Texas / angle	3	100%	11.3(6.5)	+1.13	6.5
In / dig	2	0%	0.0(9.6)	−0.49	10.4
Wheel	2	100%	16.0(10.2)	+2.06	11.0
Go	1	0%	0.0(9.9)	−0.57	10.0

Against man and zone

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Zone	74	88%	6.2	+0.19
Man	26	81%	8.7	+0.23

Against each coverage

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Cover 3	30	90%	5.6	+0.12
Cover 2	23	91%	6.1	+0.37
Cover 1	19	79%	9.2	+0.14
Cover 4	10	80%	4.9	−0.05
2-man	6	83%	6.0	+0.26
Cover 6	6	67%	5.3	−0.03
Cover 9	5	100%	14.0	+0.57
Cover 0	1	100%	14.0	+1.73

Routes are the ones the player was targetedon: nflverse labels the targeted receiver's route on about nine in ten targets, and routes run without a throw are not public, so this shows where a player's looks come from, not everything he ran. Yards per target in brackets is the league figure for that route. Rows with few targets are dimmed; small samples swing.

Game log

Game	Result	Car	Rush yds	Rush TD	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Rec TD	Snap %
2026 W2 vs INDSep 20	W 33–30	24	117	0	10	6	61	0	82%
2026 W1 vs DENSep 14	W 31–10	23	173	1	6	3	18	1	68%
2025 W22 · playoffs @ NEFeb 8	W 29–13	27	135	0	4	2	26	0	65%
2025 W21 · playoffs vs LARJan 25	W 31–27	19	62	1	4	4	49	0	63%
2025 W20 · playoffs vs SFJan 17	W 41–6	19	116	3	3	3	29	0	62%
2025 W18 @ SFJan 3	W 13–3	16	97	0	4	4	36	0	42%
2025 W17 @ CARDec 28	W 27–10	15	51	0	2	2	6	0	47%
2025 W16 vs LARDec 18	W 38–37	11	100	1	3	3	64	0	44%
2025 W15 vs INDDec 14	W 18–16	9	17	0	1	1	2	0	42%
2025 W14 @ ATLDec 7	W 37–9	10	29	0	3	1	-1	0	52%
2025 W13 vs MINNov 30	W 26–0	13	56	0	4	3	18	0	55%
2025 W12 @ TENNov 23	W 30–24	11	71	0	4	3	30	0	62%
2025 W11 @ LARNov 16	L 19–21	16	67	1	3	3	44	0	51%
2025 W10 vs ARINov 9	W 44–22	14	67	0	1	1	3	0	44%
2025 W9 @ WSHNov 2	W 38–14	11	42	0	2	2	19	0	57%
2025 W7 vs HOUOct 20	W 27–19	17	66	0	0	0	0	0	44%
2025 W6 @ JAXOct 12	W 20–12	10	34	0	1	1	3	0	35%
2025 W5 vs TBOct 5	L 35–38	10	86	0	1	1	0	0	44%
2025 W4 @ ARISep 25	W 23–20	19	81	0	2	1	29	0	50%
2025 W3 vs NOSep 21	W 44–13	16	38	2	1	1	12	0	53%
2025 W2 @ PITSep 14	W 31–17	13	105	1	1	1	13	0	35%
2025 W1 vs SFSep 7	L 13–17	10	20	0	3	3	4	0	40%

Prop lines come from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM through TheRundown and can lag what a book shows right now — check the book before you rely on a number. Splits count the games he played (snap counts show who was on the field) and describe the past; they are not a prediction. A game he played with no stat line counts as a zero; a game he sat out is left out, because books void the prop then. Stats and route labels from nflverse. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.