Before the lines post · next: vs ATL
Rec yds No line yet
No book has posted this yet (they usually do a day or two before kickoff). The dashed line starts at his median over his last 10 games; drag it to any number to see how often he has cleared it. This page shows the books' price once they post.
Middle half of these games: 16–71 · median 45.5 · range 0–150
How his rec yds tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.
Volume drivers and his share
| Watson's role | Last 3 | Last 6 | 2026 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target share | 24.5% | 22.5% | 27.5% | 19.2% |
| Targets a game | 8.7 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 5.6 |
| Snap share | 82.0% | 68.5% | 83.0% | 68.8% |
| Driver | GB offense | ATL defense faces |
|---|---|---|
| Dropbacks per game | 34.7 #23 | 37.6 #9 |
| Pass rate over expected | −1.1 #19 | +0.4 #14 |
| Neutral-script pass rate | 51.8% #25 | 56.4% #7 |
| Dropback success rate | 49.2% #7 | 45.5% #19 |
Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Throw quality
| Passes to him | Watson | League | GB offense | ATL defense faces |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catchable-target rate | 70.0% | 68.1% | 70.8% #4 | 65.8% #25 |
| Drop rate | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% #12 | 6.0% #12 |
| Contested-target rate | 30.0% | 13.0% | 15.5% #5 | 12.1% #20 |
| Pressure on his QB | — | 29.7% | 26.5% #28 | 30.4% #16 |
His last 13 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 3 of his team's games in this span (Jan 4 at MIN, Dec 29 at MIN, Oct 6 at LAR); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.
| Split | Over | Rate | Avg | Med |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 | 2/5 | 40% | 70.8 | 41 |
| Last 10 | 5/10 | 50% | 64.7 | 47.5 |
| 2026 season | 1/2 | 50% | 94.0 | 94 |
| 2025 season | 6/11 | 55% | 58.8 | 49 |
| At home | 6/14 | 43% | 38.2 | 41 |
| On the road | 7/14 | 50% | 65.7 | 51 |
| As a favorite | 9/20 | 45% | 49.0 | 45.5 |
| Short rest | 2/5 | 40% | 49.2 | 46 |
| Prime time | 5/10 | 50% | 54.6 | 50.5 |
| With Jordan Love | 11/25 | 44% | 51.0 | 45 |
| Vs middling defenses | 4/10 | 40% | 36.8 | 35 |
| Without Jayden Reed (Questionable) | 4/6 | 67% | 60.5 | 53.5 |
| With Jayden Reed | 9/22 | 41% | 49.6 | 38 |
Receptions No line yet
No book has posted this yet (they usually do a day or two before kickoff). The dashed line starts at his median over his last 10 games; drag it to any number to see how often he has cleared it. This page shows the books' price once they post.
Middle half of these games: 2–4 · median 3 · range 0–6
How his receptions tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.
Volume drivers and his share
| Watson's role | Last 3 | Last 6 | 2026 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target share | 24.5% | 22.5% | 27.5% | 19.2% |
| Targets a game | 8.7 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 5.6 |
| Snap share | 82.0% | 68.5% | 83.0% | 68.8% |
| Driver | GB offense | ATL defense faces |
|---|---|---|
| Dropbacks per game | 34.7 #23 | 37.6 #9 |
| Pass rate over expected | −1.1 #19 | +0.4 #14 |
| Neutral-script pass rate | 51.8% #25 | 56.4% #7 |
| Dropback success rate | 49.2% #7 | 45.5% #19 |
Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Throw quality
| Passes to him | Watson | League | GB offense | ATL defense faces |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catchable-target rate | 70.0% | 68.1% | 70.8% #4 | 65.8% #25 |
| Drop rate | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% #12 | 6.0% #12 |
| Contested-target rate | 30.0% | 13.0% | 15.5% #5 | 12.1% #20 |
| Pressure on his QB | — | 29.7% | 26.5% #28 | 30.4% #16 |
His last 13 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 3 of his team's games in this span (Jan 4 at MIN, Dec 29 at MIN, Oct 6 at LAR); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.
| Split | Over | Rate | Avg | Med |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 51 push | 2/5 | 40% | 4.0 | 4 |
| Last 104 push | 3/10 | 30% | 4.0 | 4 |
| 2026 season1 push | 1/2 | 50% | 5.0 | 5 |
| 2025 season4 push | 2/11 | 18% | 3.5 | 4 |
| At home1 push | 2/14 | 14% | 1.9 | 2 |
| On the road7 push | 1/14 | 7% | 3.6 | 4 |
| As a favorite6 push | 2/20 | 10% | 2.6 | 3 |
| Short rest2 push | 0/5 | 0% | 3.0 | 3 |
| Prime time2 push | 1/10 | 10% | 2.8 | 3 |
| With Jordan Love8 push | 2/25 | 8% | 2.8 | 3 |
| Vs middling defenses2 push | 0/5 | 0% | 2.8 | 3 |
| Without Jayden Reed (Questionable)3 push | 1/6 | 17% | 3.5 | 4 |
| With Jayden Reed5 push | 2/22 | 9% | 2.5 | 3 |
Anytime TD No line yet
No book has posted this yet (they usually do a day or two before kickoff). Here is how often he has scored, in the situations this game sets up.
Volume drivers and his share
| Watson's role | Last 3 | Last 6 | 2026 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Touch share | 15.5% | 12.9% | 17.6% | 10.1% |
| Touches a game | 8.7 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 5.7 |
| Snap share | 82.0% | 68.5% | 83.0% | 68.8% |
Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Each bar is measured against a touchdown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 3 of his team's games in this span (Jan 4 at MIN, Dec 29 at MIN, Oct 6 at LAR); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.
| Split | Scored | Rate | TDs/game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 | 4/5 | 80% | 0.80 |
| Last 10 | 7/10 | 70% | 0.70 |
| 2026 season | 2/2 | 100% | 1.00 |
| 2025 season | 5/11 | 45% | 0.45 |
| At home | 3/14 | 21% | 0.21 |
| On the road | 6/14 | 43% | 0.43 |
| As a favorite | 6/20 | 30% | 0.30 |
| Short rest | 3/5 | 60% | 0.60 |
| Prime time | 3/10 | 30% | 0.30 |
| With Jordan Love | 8/25 | 32% | 0.32 |
| Without Jayden Reed (Questionable) | 2/6 | 33% | 0.33 |
| With Jayden Reed | 7/22 | 32% | 0.32 |
Routes
Routes and coverage
2024–25 seasons · 115 targets with a route label| Route | Share | Tgt | Catch | Yds/tgt | EPA/tgt | ATL allow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Go | 19 | 26% | 11.7(9.9) | +0.30 | 9.0 | |
| In / dig | 19 | 58% | 13.3(9.6) | +0.50 | 10.0 | |
| Post | 17 | 65% | 18.8(12.3) | +1.26 | 12.3 | |
| Quick out | 15 | 73% | 5.9(5.5) | +0.34 | 5.4 | |
| Deep out | 14 | 71% | 10.4(8.0) | +0.63 | 7.9 | |
| Hitch / curl | 11 | 73% | 6.0(6.8) | +0.46 | 7.1 | |
| Shallow cross | 8 | 50% | 4.6(6.5) | −1.06 | 7.1 | |
| Corner | 5 | 60% | 13.2(10.4) | +1.11 | 10.1 | |
| Slant | 5 | 60% | 9.8(7.2) | +0.76 | 6.7 | |
| Wheel | 2 | 50% | 12.5(10.2) | +0.38 | 10.8 |
Against man and zone
| Defense | Tgt | Catch | Yds/tgt | EPA/tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man | 64 | 53% | 10.5 | +0.36 |
| Zone | 51 | 65% | 11.7 | +0.67 |
Against each coverage
| Defense | Tgt | Catch | Yds/tgt | EPA/tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 1 | 52 | 48% | 10.6 | +0.25 |
| Cover 3 | 22 | 64% | 8.5 | +0.15 |
| Cover 2 | 13 | 54% | 9.8 | +0.77 |
| Cover 4 | 11 | 82% | 19.9 | +1.53 |
| 2-man | 8 | 63% | 10.8 | +0.42 |
| Cover 0 | 4 | 100% | 9.0 | +1.69 |
| Cover 9 | 3 | 67% | 9.0 | +0.56 |
| Cover 6 | 2 | 50% | 18.0 | +1.21 |
Routes are the ones the player was targetedon: nflverse labels the targeted receiver's route on about nine in ten targets, and routes run without a throw are not public, so this shows where a player's looks come from, not everything he ran. Yards per target in brackets is the league figure for that route. Rows with few targets are dimmed; small samples swing.
Game log
| Game | Result | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Snap % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W2 @ NYJSep 20 | W 20–17 | 11 | 4 | 41 | 1 | 90% |
| 2026 W1 @ MINSep 13 | L 22–39 | 8 | 6 | 147 | 2 | 76% |
| 2025 W19 · playoffs @ CHIJan 10 | L 27–31 | 7 | 3 | 36 | 1 | 80% |
| 2025 W17 vs BALDec 27 | L 24–41 | 6 | 5 | 113 | 1 | 62% |
| 2025 W16 @ CHIDec 20 | L 16–22 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 62% |
| 2025 W15 @ DENDec 14 | L 26–34 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 41% |
| 2025 W14 vs CHIDec 7 | W 28–21 | 4 | 4 | 89 | 2 | 83% |
| 2025 W13 @ DETNov 27 | W 31–24 | 10 | 4 | 80 | 1 | 73% |
| 2025 W12 vs MINNov 23 | W 23–6 | 7 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 74% |
| 2025 W11 @ NYGNov 16 | W 27–20 | 5 | 4 | 46 | 2 | 78% |
| 2025 W10 vs PHINov 10 | L 7–10 | 4 | 2 | 45 | 0 | 82% |
| 2025 W9 vs CARNov 2 | L 13–16 | 4 | 2 | 58 | 0 | 66% |
| 2025 W8 @ PITOct 26 | W 35–25 | 4 | 4 | 85 | 0 | 56% |
Prop lines come from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM through TheRundown and can lag what a book shows right now — check the book before you rely on a number. Splits count the games he played (snap counts show who was on the field) and describe the past; they are not a prediction. A game he played with no stat line counts as a zero; a game he sat out is left out, because books void the prop then. Stats and route labels from nflverse. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.