NFL · Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Pass yds/g: 246.0
Rush yds/g: 29.5
2026 games: 2

Props this week

Pass yds 238.5

Over -112 · Under -112 · books price the over at 50%

SF vs MIA · Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET · favored by 13 · total 45 · wind 7 mph · 10 days rest · final: 287 (over)

MIA allows the 16th-most passing yards to QBs (227 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

Score against

What if the line were238.5

17 of 28 over61%range 45–74%avg 98% of snapsbooks price 50% at 238.5 (-112 DK)

Middle half of these games: 198.3–297 · median 261 · range 94–377

Projected range · contextmedian 225middle half 177–27880% range 128–327

How his pass yds tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

Purdy's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Pass attempts a game	27.7	29.0	28.0	31.1
Snap share	90.0%	95.0%	92.5%	96.8%

Driver	SF offense	MIA defense faces
Dropbacks per game	35.1 #20	34.4 #22
Pass rate over expected	+2.4 #9	−0.4 #21
Neutral-script pass rate	57.6% #7	54.3% #19
Dropback success rate	52.6% #1	52.4% #1
EPA per dropback	+0.18 #5	+0.17 #6

Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Throw quality

His passes	Purdy	League	MIA defense faces
Catchable-ball rate	75.9%	68.1%	73.4% #3
Interception-worthy throws	4.6%	3.1%	3.5% #9
Completion % under pressure	40.8%	34.6%	36.9% #11
Completion % clean	72.8%	69.4%	76.4% #2
Pressure rate	27.3%	29.7%	27.2% #24
Drops by his receivers	6.0%	5.5%	3.7% #30

His last 13 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Market curve vs his games

● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number

Number	Best over	Books price	His games
main	-112 DK	50%	61% (17/28)
main	-115 MGM	50%	61% (17/28)

* A one-sided price includes the book's margin, which is larger on far alternates, so the probability reads a little high. Numbers a book has not refreshed in a while, and old main lines it has moved off, are left out.

Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 9 of his team's games in this span (Nov 9 vs LAR, Nov 2 at NYG, Oct 26 at HOU, Oct 19 vs ATL, …); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	2/5	40%	204.2	205
Last 10	5/10	50%	227.5	233.5
2026 season	1/2	50%	246.0	246
2025 season	6/11	55%	233.5	262
At home	9/15	60%	250.1	260
On the road	8/13	62%	244.1	262
Vs MIA	2/2	100%	300.0	300
As a favorite	15/22	68%	260.0	282
Long rest	4/5	80%	292.0	295
Vs middling defenses	9/13	69%	257.0	287
With Demarcus Robinson	6/12	50%	232.0	233.5

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	240.5	-115	-115
DK	238.5	-112	-112
FD	238.5	-113	-113

Steady at 238.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Rush yds 13.5

Over -113 · Under -111 · books price the over at 50%

SF vs MIA · Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET · favored by 13 · total 45 · wind 7 mph · 10 days rest · final: 30 (over)

MIA allows the 11th-most rushing yards to QBs (19 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

Score against

What if the line were13.5

17 of 28 over61%range 45–74%avg 98% of snapsbooks price 50% at 13.5 (-113 DK)

Middle half of these games: 11–29.3 · median 18 · range -7–56

Projected range · contextmedian 16.9middle half 4.9–3680% range 0–58

How his rush yds tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

Purdy's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Carry share	15.5%	19.4%	14.0%	14.6%
Carries a game	4.3	5.0	4.0	4.3
Snap share	90.0%	95.0%	92.5%	96.8%

Driver	SF offense	MIA defense faces
Rushes per game	25.4 #9	24.5 #15
Rush rate over expected	−2.4 #24	+0.4 #12
Early-down rush rate	46.3% #13	46.4% #12

Market curve vs his games

● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number

Number	Best over	Books price	His games
main	-120 MGM	51%	64% (18/28)
main	-113 DK	50%	61% (17/28)

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	5/5	100%	28.2	29
Last 10	8/10	80%	24.4	26
2026 season	2/2	100%	29.5	29.5
2025 season	7/11	64%	18.9	17
At home	9/15	60%	23.7	21
On the road	8/13	62%	18.0	17
Vs MIA	2/2	100%	28.0	28
As a favorite	13/22	59%	21.0	17
Long rest	5/5	100%	28.8	27
Vs middling defenses	6/11	55%	23.5	17
With Demarcus Robinson	8/12	67%	20.8	22.5

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	12.5	-120	-110
DK	13.5	-113	-111
FD	13.5	-113	-113

Steady at 13.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Pass TDs 1.5

Over -175 · Under +148 · books price the over at 61%

SF vs MIA · Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET · favored by 13 · total 45 · wind 7 mph · 10 days rest · final: 2 (over)

MIA allows the 6th-most passing TDs to QBs (1.8 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

Score against

What if the line were1.5

15 of 28 over54%range 38–68%avg 98% of snapsbooks price 61% at 1.5 (-175 MGM)

Middle half of these games: 1–3 · median 2 · range 0–5

Projected range · contextmedian 1.9middle half 1–2.880% range 0–3.4

How his pass tds tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

Purdy's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Pass attempts a game	27.7	29.0	28.0	31.1
Snap share	90.0%	95.0%	92.5%	96.8%

Driver	SF offense	MIA defense faces
Dropbacks per game	35.1 #20	34.4 #22
Pass rate over expected	+2.4 #9	−0.4 #21
Neutral-script pass rate	57.6% #7	54.3% #19
Dropback success rate	52.6% #1	52.4% #1
EPA per dropback	+0.18 #5	+0.17 #6

Throw quality

His passes	Purdy	League	MIA defense faces
Catchable-ball rate	75.9%	68.1%	73.4% #3
Interception-worthy throws	4.6%	3.1%	3.5% #9
Completion % under pressure	40.8%	34.6%	36.9% #11
Completion % clean	72.8%	69.4%	76.4% #2
Pressure rate	27.3%	29.7%	27.2% #24
Drops by his receivers	6.0%	5.5%	3.7% #30

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	3/5	60%	1.4	2
Last 10	6/10	60%	2.0	2
2026 season	2/2	100%	2.5	2.5
2025 season	7/11	64%	2.0	2
At home	6/15	40%	1.3	1
On the road	9/13	69%	2.1	2
Vs MIA	2/2	100%	2.0	2
As a favorite	12/22	55%	1.8	2
Long rest	4/5	80%	1.8	2
Vs soft defenses	5/7	71%	1.9	2
With Demarcus Robinson	8/12	67%	2.1	2

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	1.5	-175	+130
DK	1.5	-188	+146
FD	1.5	-196	+148

Steady at 1.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Pass att 28.5

Over -114 · Under -110 · books price the over at 51%

SF vs MIA · Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET · favored by 13 · total 45 · wind 7 mph · 10 days rest · final: 22 (under)

MIA allows the 10th-fewest pass attempts to QBs (30 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

Score against

What if the line were28.5

18 of 28 over64%range 49–77%avg 98% of snapsbooks price 51% at 28.5 (-114 DK)

Middle half of these games: 27–34.3 · median 30.5 · range 18–40

Projected range · contextmedian 29middle half 20–3780% range 2–45

How his pass att tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

Purdy's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Pass attempts a game	27.7	29.0	28.0	31.1
Snap share	90.0%	95.0%	92.5%	96.8%

Driver	SF offense	MIA defense faces
Dropbacks per game	35.1 #20	34.4 #22
Pass rate over expected	+2.4 #9	−0.4 #21
Neutral-script pass rate	57.6% #7	54.3% #19
Dropback success rate	52.6% #1	52.4% #1
EPA per dropback	+0.18 #5	+0.17 #6

Throw quality

His passes	Purdy	League	MIA defense faces
Catchable-ball rate	75.9%	68.1%	73.4% #3
Interception-worthy throws	4.6%	3.1%	3.5% #9
Completion % under pressure	40.8%	34.6%	36.9% #11
Completion % clean	72.8%	69.4%	76.4% #2
Pressure rate	27.3%	29.7%	27.2% #24
Drops by his receivers	6.0%	5.5%	3.7% #30

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	2/5	40%	28.2	27
Last 10	7/10	70%	29.9	30.5
2026 season	1/2	50%	28.0	28
2025 season	8/11	73%	31.1	31
At home	9/15	60%	29.9	30
On the road	9/13	69%	31.1	31
Vs MIA	1/2	50%	31.0	31
As a favorite	15/22	68%	31.0	30.5
Long rest	4/5	80%	31.8	31
Vs tough defenses	7/11	64%	29.4	29
With Demarcus Robinson	8/12	67%	30.3	30.5

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	28.5	-120	-110
DK	28.5	-114	-111

Steady at 28.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Completions 20.5

Over -120 · Under -110 · books price the over at 51%

SF vs MIA · Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET · favored by 13 · total 45 · wind 7 mph · 10 days rest · final: 20 (under)

MIA allows the 9th-most completions to QBs (22 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

Score against

What if the line were20.5

13 of 28 over46%range 32–62%avg 98% of snapsbooks price 51% at 20.5 (-120 MGM)

Middle half of these games: 18–24.3 · median 20 · range 11–28

Projected range · contextmedian 21middle half 16.7–2480% range 11.1–28

How his completions tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

Purdy's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Pass attempts a game	27.7	29.0	28.0	31.1
Snap share	90.0%	95.0%	92.5%	96.8%

Driver	SF offense	MIA defense faces
Dropbacks per game	35.1 #20	34.4 #22
Pass rate over expected	+2.4 #9	−0.4 #21
Neutral-script pass rate	57.6% #7	54.3% #19
Dropback success rate	52.6% #1	52.4% #1
EPA per dropback	+0.18 #5	+0.17 #6

Throw quality

His passes	Purdy	League	MIA defense faces
Catchable-ball rate	75.9%	68.1%	73.4% #3
Interception-worthy throws	4.6%	3.1%	3.5% #9
Completion % under pressure	40.8%	34.6%	36.9% #11
Completion % clean	72.8%	69.4%	76.4% #2
Pressure rate	27.3%	29.7%	27.2% #24
Drops by his receivers	6.0%	5.5%	3.7% #30

Market curve vs his games

● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number

Number	Best over	Books price	His games
main	-129 DK	53%	54% (15/28)
main	-120 MGM	51%	46% (13/28)

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	1/5	20%	19.4	19
Last 10	5/10	50%	20.8	21.5
2026 season	1/2	50%	22.5	22.5
2025 season	6/11	55%	20.9	22
At home	6/15	40%	20.1	20
On the road	7/13	54%	21.1	22
Vs MIA	1/2	50%	23.0	23
As a favorite	11/22	50%	20.9	20.5
Long rest	3/5	60%	22.2	23
Vs soft defenses	5/10	50%	20.5	21
With Demarcus Robinson	6/12	50%	20.8	21

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	20.5	-120	-110
DK	19.5	-129	+101

Steady at 20.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Rush att 3.5

Over -145 · Under +114 · books price the over at 56%

SF vs MIA · Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET · favored by 13 · total 45 · wind 7 mph · 10 days rest · final: 3 (under)

MIA allows the 13th-fewest carries to QBs (3.8 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

Score against

What if the line were3.5

17 of 28 over61%range 45–74%avg 98% of snapsbooks price 56% at 3.5 (-145 DK)

Middle half of these games: 2–5.3 · median 4 · range 1–10

Volume drivers and his share

Purdy's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Carry share	15.5%	19.4%	14.0%	14.6%
Carries a game	4.3	5.0	4.0	4.3
Snap share	90.0%	95.0%	92.5%	96.8%

Driver	SF offense	MIA defense faces
Rushes per game	25.4 #9	24.5 #15
Rush rate over expected	−2.4 #24	+0.4 #12
Early-down rush rate	46.3% #13	46.4% #12

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	3/5	60%	4.8	5
Last 10	6/10	60%	4.7	5
2026 season	1/2	50%	4.0	4
2025 season	6/11	55%	4.3	5
At home	9/15	60%	4.4	5
On the road	8/13	62%	4.2	4
Vs MIA	1/2	50%	3.5	3.5
As a favorite	14/22	64%	4.3	4
Long rest	4/5	80%	5.2	4
Vs middling defenses	5/9	56%	3.6	4
With Demarcus Robinson	6/12	50%	4.2	4

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
DK	3.5	-145	+114

Steady at 3.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Anytime TD

Yes +350 · books price yes at 24%

SF vs MIA · Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET · favored by 13 · total 45 · wind 7 mph · 10 days rest · final: 1 (yes)

Teammate

Score against

7 of 28 scored25%range 14–40%avg 98% of snapsbooks price 24%

Volume drivers and his share

Purdy's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Touch share	7.9%	9.2%	7.2%	7.2%
Touches a game	4.3	5.0	4.0	4.3
Snap share	90.0%	95.0%	92.5%	96.8%

Each bar is measured against a touchdown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 9 of his team's games in this span (Nov 9 vs LAR, Nov 2 at NYG, Oct 26 at HOU, Oct 19 vs ATL, …); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Scored	Rate	TDs/game
Last 5	1/5	20%	0.20
Last 10	3/10	30%	0.30
2026 season	1/2	50%	0.50
2025 season	2/11	18%	0.18
At home	6/15	40%	0.40
On the road	1/13	8%	0.08
Vs MIA	1/2	50%	0.50
As a favorite	6/22	27%	0.27
Long rest	2/5	40%	0.40
With Demarcus Robinson	3/12	25%	0.25

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Yes
MGM	—	+350
DK	—	+300
FD	—	+310

We have not seen a line for this yet.

Game log

Game	Result	C/A	Pass yds	TD	INT	Car	Rush yds	Rush TD	Snap %
2026 W2 vs MIASep 20	W 35–13	20/22	287	2	0	3	30	1	85%
2026 W1 @ LARSep 10	W 27–7	25/34	205	3	1	5	29	0	100%
2025 W20 · playoffs @ SEAJan 17	L 6–41	15/27	140	0	1	5	37	0	85%
2025 W19 · playoffs @ PHIJan 11	W 23–19	18/31	262	2	2	9	24	0	100%
2025 W18 vs SEAJan 3	L 3–13	19/27	127	0	1	2	21	0	100%
2025 W17 vs CHIDec 28	W 42–38	24/33	303	3	1	6	28	2	100%
2025 W16 @ INDDec 22	W 48–27	25/34	295	5	1	2	11	0	95%
2025 W15 vs TENDec 14	W 37–24	23/30	295	3	0	7	44	0	100%
2025 W13 @ CLENov 30	W 26–8	16/29	168	1	0	2	4	1	94%
2025 W12 vs CARNov 24	W 20–9	23/32	193	1	3	6	16	0	100%
2025 W11 @ ARINov 16	W 41–22	19/26	200	3	0	1	-7	0	91%
2025 W4 vs JAXSep 28	L 21–26	22/38	309	2	2	2	13	0	100%
2025 W1 @ SEASep 7	W 17–13	26/35	277	2	2	5	17	0	100%

Prop lines come from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM through TheRundown and can lag what a book shows right now — check the book before you rely on a number. Splits count the games he played (snap counts show who was on the field) and describe the past; they are not a prediction. A game he played with no stat line counts as a zero; a game he sat out is left out, because books void the prop then. Stats and route labels from nflverse. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.